Hurricane Katrina

[Brent]

I think it could possibly hit Cat 4 strength tonight, and if it continues to deepen Cat 5 by morning.

If that northern eyewall builds up... I agree. I mean it's become a Cat 2 without it!!!

[cycloneye]

Ok folks post your opinions at Katrinas big thread.I will lock this one until next advisorie at 2 PM.I want this thread to be generally about advisories being posted.

[storms in NC]

just looked at the satalites and she has jog North west. It maybe a wobble but who knows

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261544
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 19 KNHC
1532 2544N 08135W 03048 0095 129 050 108 076 051 03190 0000000000
1532. 2543N 08136W 03047 0094 130 052 110 064 052 03188 0000000000
1533 2542N 08137W 03049 0092 130 052 106 066 052 03188 0000000000
1533. 2540N 08139W 03048 0091 128 052 106 068 052 03186 0000000000
1534 2539N 08140W 03048 0091 126 052 108 072 052 03186 0000000000
1534. 2538N 08142W 03049 0090 127 048 102 088 049 03186 0000000000
1535 2537N 08143W 03048 0087 126 047 100 088 047 03181 0000000000
1535. 2535N 08145W 03048 0086 123 046 108 080 046 03181 0000000000
1536 2534N 08146W 03048 0084 122 047 114 076 048 03179 0000000000
1536. 2533N 08147W 03047 0082 122 050 108 078 051 03176 0000000000
1537 2531N 08149W 03051 0080 121 051 106 074 052 03178 0000000000
1537. 2530N 08150W 03045 0077 116 048 114 076 051 03169 0000000000
1538 2529N 08152W 03044 0073 121 055 110 086 056 03165 0000000000
1538. 2527N 08153W 03053 0069 121 059 104 092 061 03169 0000000000
1539 2526N 08155W 03049 0065 125 062 108 100 063 03160 0000000000
1539. 2525N 08156W 03045 0060 121 057 124 098 059 03151 0000000000
1540 2524N 08157W 03050 0055 119 054 122 094 056 03152 0000000000
1540. 2522N 08159W 03047 0050 121 053 134 080 053 03144 0000000000
1541 2521N 08200W 03047 0045 123 050 134 082 050 03140 0000000000
1541. 2520N 08202W 03048 0040 126 053 128 078 053 03135 0000000000

[Scorpion]

We live in historic times. I firmly believe this will devastate the coast wherever it hits. Can't believe our little TD that could has grown into a monster.

[Stormcenter]

just looked at the satalites and she has jog North west. It maybe a wobble but who knows

Sorry but it still looks west at a good clip. IMO


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[cjrciadt]

We live in historic times. I firmly believe this will devastate the coast wherever it hits. Can't believe our little TD that could has grown into a monster.

From EX TD10 to a bare Cat1 retaining most of it's strength. To a possible monster in the next 48hrs!!!!!!!

[djtil]

I know this is the Recon thread but if you look at what it's doing on the radar I'd say it's going to continue to bomb as thr struture of the eyewall gets better defined.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kbyx.shtml

i agree....the consistent dry pocket on the north side appears to be mixing out and the north eyewall is trying to close off and form.....ths is the only non-ideal thing left.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261554
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 20 KNHC
1542 2518N 08203W 03047 0035 133 056 132 078 056 03129 0000000000
1542. 2517N 08205W 03048 0029 135 057 144 080 058 03124 0000000000
1543 2516N 08206W 03049 0023 132 063 132 098 069 03119 0000000000
1543. 2515N 08207W 03050 0012 136 065 114 114 067 03108 0000000000
1544 2514N 08208W 03049 0001 138 066 112 112 067 03096 0000000000
1544. 2512N 08210W 03048 5011 135 068 110 110 074 03084 0000000000
1545 2511N 08211W 03051 5026 136 068 108 108 070 03072 0000000000
1545. 2510N 08212W 03044 5040 135 058 132 132 062 03050 0000000000
1546 2509N 08214W 03042 5053 139 057 144 126 058 03036 0000000000
1546. 2508N 08215W 03060 5067 139 066 154 122 068 03039 0000000000
1547 2506N 08216W 03039 5090 144 060 168 136 063 02996 0000000000
1547. 2505N 08218W 03054 5108 156 047 152 128 049 02992 0000000000
1548 2505N 08220W 03046 5124 156 027 170 112 035 02969 0000000000
1548. 2504N 08221W 03048 5130 153 020 158 108 021 02964 0000000000
1549 2503N 08223W 03056 5137 146 016 158 118 018 02965 0000000000
1549. 2502N 08225W 03051 5139 079 011 150 124 013 02958 0000000000
1550 2501N 08226W 03043 5137 001 009 156 114 011 02952 0000000000
1550. 2459N 08227W 03048 5129 326 015 152 118 018 02966 0000000000
1551 2500N 08228W 03046 5128 355 021 144 116 024 02964 0000000000
1551. 2501N 08228W 03054 5138 012 017 148 120 022 02962 0000000000

74 knots in the NE quad, now entering the SW quad...

[clfenwi]

GFS has shifted its landfall point to the west for the 12Z run, now indicating southeast Louisana:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078m.gif

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261602
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 21 KNHC
1552 2502N 08226W 03045 5141 075 015 142 130 019 02950 0000000000
1552. 2503N 08225W 03047 5135 091 011 146 128 016 02959 0000000000
1553 2502N 08223W 03049 5132 154 012 150 126 013 02963 0000000000
1553. 2500N 08224W 03053 5133 182 007 154 120 010 02967 0000000000
1554 2500N 08226W 03042 5137 293 006 156 112 009 02952 0000000000
1554. 2459N 08228W 03054 5131 334 016 150 110 020 02969 0000000000
1555 2458N 08229W 03046 5123 338 031 132 132 034 02969 0000000000
1555. 2457N 08231W 03047 5107 346 037 128 128 038 02986 0000000000
1556 2459N 08231W 03046 5117 343 033 126 126 033 02976 0000000000
1556. 2459N 08229W 03050 5132 336 026 132 132 034 02965 0000000000
1557 2500N 08227W 03048 5139 331 004 158 112 011 02956 0000000000
1557. 2502N 08226W 03041 5133 129 011 166 112 013 02954 0000000000
1558 2502N 08224W 03051 5128 144 014 178 104 015 02970 0000000000
1558. 2500N 08224W 03051 5133 203 008 160 112 010 02964 0000000000
1559 2459N 08226W 03046 5138 282 009 150 118 014 02955 0000000000
1559. 2458N 08227W 03048 5135 310 018 148 124 018 02960 0000000000
1600 2457N 08229W 03047 5126 312 029 138 132 033 02967 0000000000
1600. 2455N 08230W 03052 5112 320 036 132 120 042 02987 0000000000
1601 2454N 08231W 03059 5098 326 056 124 124 063 03008 0000000100
1601. 2453N 08233W 03059 5086 322 073 098 098 077 03019 0000000100

77 knots so far...heights a bit lower than last pass

[cjrciadt]

Heaven to Betsy's
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at196503.asp
Just became a Cat5 before reaching LA. The entire gulf is under the gun now.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261612
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 22 KNHC
1602 2452N 08234W 03042 5075 316 082 088 088 087 03013 0000000100
1602. 2450N 08236W 03039 5058 311 076 078 078 077 03028 0000000100
1603 2449N 08237W 03035 5036 317 070 072 072 072 03045 0000000100
1603. 2448N 08238W 03050 5021 319 066 070 070 067 03076 0000000100
1604 2447N 08240W 03050 5000 314 063 080 080 066 03096 0000000000
1604. 2446N 08241W 03046 0007 313 062 092 092 063 03100 0000000000
1605 2444N 08243W 03055 0016 317 062 100 100 064 03117 0000000000
1605. 2443N 08244W 03039 0018 315 060 100 100 062 03104 0000000000
1606 2442N 08245W 03057 0025 320 054 100 100 056 03129 0000000000
1606. 2441N 08247W 03042 0033 315 054 088 088 056 03122 0000000000
1607 2440N 08248W 03055 0035 309 053 086 086 054 03137 0000000000
1607. 2438N 08249W 03038 0040 306 052 086 086 053 03125 0000000000
1608 2437N 08251W 03054 0046 308 052 096 096 053 03147 0000000000
1608. 2436N 08252W 03048 0049 309 054 092 092 055 03144 0000000000
1609 2435N 08253W 03050 0053 310 056 094 094 057 03149 0000000000
1609. 2434N 08255W 03044 0056 306 047 086 086 050 03148 0000000000
1610 2433N 08256W 03051 0061 306 047 096 096 048 03159 0000000000
1610. 2431N 08257W 03046 0064 310 050 100 100 050 03158 0000000000
1611 2430N 08259W 03051 0067 310 046 100 100 047 03166 0000000000
1611. 2429N 08300W 03047 0070 312 045 098 098 045 03164 0000000000

87 knots

[JTD]

The evacuation orders issued for this one will be huge.

[StormsAhead]

URNT12 KNHC 261614
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/15:56:50Z
B. 25 deg 00 min N
082 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2870 m
D. 55 kt
E. 49 deg 035 nm
F. 136 deg 074 kt
G. 53 deg 019 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 13 C/ 3051 m
J. 18 C/ 3057 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 83 KT SE QUAD 14:40:40 Z
EYEWALL RAGGED

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KNHC 261613
XXAA 76168 99251 70823 08152 99973 27218 13064 00742 ///// /////
92453 28257 14062 85203 25057 15054 70887 16833 88999 77999
31313 09608 81547
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 12
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2514N08232W 1550 MBL WND 13562 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 14557 973788 WL150 13563 081 =
XXBB 76168 99251 70823 08152 00973 27218 11954 26828 22937 29058
33850 25057 44729 17846 55702 17637 66696 15426
21212 00973 13064 11943 13560 22933 14064 33907 14058 44871 14561
55850 15054 66696 15551
31313 09608 81547
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 12
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2514N08232W 1550 MBL WND 13562 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 14557 973788 WL150 13563 081 =

973mb pressure in the eyewall, with only 64 knots- perhaps this hit too close to the eye?

[LilNoles2005]

The GFS has been consistently inconsistent with Katrina...

we need consistency! Let's see what the next run holds for us!

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KNHC 261615
XXAA 2616/ 99250 70824 08152 99971 28421 ///// 00767 ///// 92429
26429 85174 22422 70854 16650 88999 77999
31313 09608 81557
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 13
62626 EYE 1559 AEV 20507 =
XXBB 26168 99250 70824 08152 00971 28421 11850 22422 22806 20427
33784 21656 44727 17650 55708 17850 66697 16050
21212 00971 /////
31313 09608 81557
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 13
62626 EYE 1559 AEV 20507 =

971mb in the eye...

[StormsAhead]

Observation #: 14
Time: 16:19Z
Position: 24.2N 83.4W
Flight altitude: 3050 meters
Flight-level wind: NW (310°) 38 knots
Temperature/Dew Point: 11C/7C
Weather: Rain
700mb Height: 3114 meters

URNT11 KNHC 261622
97779 16194 60242 83400 30500 31038 11078 /3114
43040
RMK AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 14

[StormsAhead]

URNT14 KNHC 261625
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01257 10816 13101 11007 13052
02255 20818 23088 21108 12045
03253 30820 33049 31308 13053
04252 40822 43962 41413 14054
MF252 M0822 MF074
OBS 01 AT 15:33:00Z
OBS 04 AT 15:45:40Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01248 10826 13987 10707 32064
02246 20828 23053 20909 31051
03245 30830 33083 31010 31042
04243 40832 43102 41010 32046
MF249 M0826 MF087
OBS 01 AT 16:03:10Z
OBS 04 AT 16:16:20Z
OBS 04 SFC WND 30040
AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 15