11:30 AM TWO=A new area to watch apart from 97L

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 261544
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON STRENGTHENING
HURRICANE KATRINA... LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
45 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 75 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 900
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT... THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE COVERING A LARGE AREA
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY... AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


Here we go again.

[WindRunner]

Yeah, it looks pretty decent. I guess we missed that with this creature knocking on the door.

[cycloneye]

Our old friend 97L looks like it is more consolidated today and I will not be surprised if TD status is given tonight or tommorow.

[otowntiger]

Yeah, but is the one they are talking about possibly becoming a td tonight or tomorrow expected to be a fish? I thought I had seen some model plots that have it recurving. Is this still the case, or should we be watching that one closely as well?

[krysof]

Fish? Could be but the models had it moving north and recurving for several days now, but yet it still continues west-northwest now 900 miles from the lesser antilles. I thought this one may be an EC threat, but the trough that is supposedly coming for Katrina will most likely pick up this potential depression. Another low pressure system organizing well to the east of 97L.

[Brent]

Yeah, but is the one they are talking about possibly becoming a td tonight or tomorrow expected to be a fish? I thought I had seen some model plots that have it recurving. Is this still the case, or should we be watching that one closely as well?

Yes... 97L.

[caribepr]

Ok Luis...here's the deal. I'm opening a new business next week, it's a cart selling (my & others) hot sauce and other gift items..
and I NEED the Labor Day weekend to NOT be bad. So...
you fix it and you get the hot sauce or whatever you like off the stand (it's by the bridge, Island Woman cart) free AND a meal to go with it.
You'll get it anyway if you ever get here, but I like to believe in the power of bribery! Figure Ma Nature likes a good joke anyway.

[SouthFloridawx]

Luis do you mean this area?

[cycloneye]

Ok Luis...here's the deal. I'm opening a new business next week, it's a cart selling (my & others) hot sauce and other gift items...and I NEED the Labor Day weekend to NOT be bad. So...you fix it and you get the hot sauce or whatever you like off the stand (it's by the bridge, Island Woman cart) free AND a meal to go with it.
You'll get it anyway if you ever get here, but I like to believe in the power of bribery! Figure Ma Nature likes a good joke anyway.

[cycloneye]

Luis do you mean this area?

Yes that is the new area of concern.

[EDR1222]

Looks to have a good chance to develope into something. Seems like this always happens when we are closely paying attention to a storm closer to home.

[dhweather]

I'm impressed with the tenacity of 97L.

[krysof]

97L has been alive almost a week now. It looks very well organized and it should definetelly be categorized shortly maybe even at the 5pm advisory or the 1030 advisory.

[cjrciadt]

OOps Double

[P.K.]

We now have 90L as well.

17:45 GMT IR Image

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

97L is likely a tropical storm right now. Deep convection is forming near the LLC. In the enviroment is getting more favable. This needs upgraded...I'm not impressed with 90L at this moment.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]




000

WHXX01 KWBC 261815

CHGHUR



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050826 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050826 1800 050827 0600 050827 1800 050828 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 19.9N 48.3W 21.5N 49.4W 23.4N 50.7W 25.4N 51.8W

BAMM 19.9N 48.3W 21.2N 49.9W 22.7N 51.6W 24.2N 53.0W

A98E 19.9N 48.3W 21.7N 49.7W 23.1N 50.7W 24.5N 51.4W

LBAR 19.9N 48.3W 21.7N 49.5W 24.0N 50.6W 26.3N 51.6W

SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 41KTS 48KTS

DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 41KTS 48KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050828 1800 050829 1800 050830 1800 050831 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 27.7N 52.6W 32.4N 52.4W 36.1N 50.5W 37.5N 44.8W

BAMM 25.7N 54.2W 29.3N 54.9W 33.2N 54.4W 36.2N 53.2W

A98E 25.8N 52.0W 27.9N 51.9W 31.1N 50.1W 33.3N 45.6W

LBAR 28.6N 51.8W 31.5N 50.0W 31.5N 47.7W 31.6N 46.7W

SHIP 55KTS 71KTS 82KTS 84KTS

DSHP 55KTS 71KTS 82KTS 84KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 19.9N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 321DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 47.0W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 45.1W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

What on earth? If the enviroment gets even the slightest better organized this convection will be right over the top. I expect a hurricane out of this. Unnamed or not.