Hurricane Katrina

[WindRunner]

Oooh, yeah, thanks Storms!

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261712
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 28 KNHC
1702 2452N 08230W 03034 5138 226 038 146 146 040 02942 0000000000
1702. 2454N 08231W 03055 5148 229 017 160 128 026 02954 0000000000
1703 2455N 08232W 03043 5156 168 006 160 124 009 02934 0000000000
1703. 2457N 08234W 03051 5159 079 013 154 118 015 02938 0000000000
1704 2458N 08235W 03043 5159 062 018 158 110 023 02931 0000000000
1704. 2459N 08236W 03056 5154 057 038 166 112 046 02948 0000000000
1705 2500N 08238W 03041 5142 056 053 152 120 059 02946 0000000000
1705. 2502N 08239W 03042 5121 054 072 184 092 073 02968 0000000000
1706 2503N 08241W 03051 5089 054 068 182 080 070 03008 0000000000
1706. 2504N 08242W 03056 5061 044 068 174 088 070 03042 0000000000
1707 2505N 08243W 03041 5044 042 067 170 084 070 03044 0000000000
1707. 2507N 08245W 03053 5028 038 070 154 088 073 03071 0000000000
1708 2508N 08246W 03050 5021 041 074 140 098 074 03076 0000000000
1708. 2509N 08247W 03044 5016 047 076 138 094 078 03075 0000000000
1709 2510N 08249W 03047 5004 049 074 138 092 077 03090 0000000000
1709. 2511N 08250W 03050 0009 046 067 132 102 069 03106 0000000000
1710 2513N 08251W 03047 0017 041 065 120 102 065 03112 0000000000
1710. 2514N 08253W 03049 0025 040 064 108 102 067 03120 0000000000
1711 2515N 08254W 03048 0030 046 064 108 096 065 03124 0000000000
1711. 2516N 08255W 03049 0035 052 065 110 092 066 03130 0000000000

78 knots NW eyewall

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KNHC 261718
XXAA 76178 99249 70825 08142 99973 26605 20585 00746 ///// /////
92445 24403 23069 85187 21208 23053 88999 77999
31313 09608 81701
51515 10190 70861
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 19
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2490N08244W 1705 MBL WND 22080 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 23061 972727 WL150 21589 078 =
XXBB 76178 99249 70825 08142 00973 26605 11850 21208 22735 17428
33711 16600 44700 14000
21212 00973 20585 11960 22092 22932 22569 33923 23569 44912 24075
55887 24057 66874 23555 77866 23558 88854 23051 99850 23053 11752
23055 22700 23039
31313 09608 81701
51515 10190 70861
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 19
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2490N08244W 1705 MBL WND 22080 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 23061 972727 WL150 21589 078 =

973mb...85 knots surface! The pressure should be lower if that's what it is in the eyewall...

[WindRunner]

That better not still be the NW eyewall.

[drezee]

973mb...85 knots surface!

That was outside of the eye, pressure is probably in the 960s now

[StormsAhead]

That better not still be the NW eyewall.

It's the SE...wind coming from 200 (SSW)

[Derecho]

UKMET has shifted significantly west; 12Z has the center on the SE tip of Louisiana at 72 hours.

[StormsAhead]

URNT12 KNHC 261720
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/17:02:50Z
B. 24 deg 55 min N
082 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2853 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 250 deg 073 kt
G. 149 deg 009 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 9 C/ 3046 m
J. 16 C/ 3057 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E15/16/10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 87 KT SW QUAD 16:01:40 Z
EYE WALL OPEN AT 10,000FT IN NW, CLOSED AT SURFACE

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KNHC 261720
XXAA 2617/ 99249 70826 08142 99969 27000 ///// 00777 ///// 92417
25800 85161 22000 70837 16244 88999 77999
31313 09608 81703
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 20
62626 EYE 1706 AEV 20507 =
XXBB 26178 99249 70826 08142 00969 27000 11850 22000 22774 17812
33751 19050 44696 16041
21212 00969 /////
31313 09608 81703
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 20
62626 EYE 1706 AEV 20507 =

969mb dropsonde

[drezee]

Storm KATRINA: Observed By AF #304
Storm #12 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 87KT (100.1mph 161.1km/h) In SW Quadrant At 16:01:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 78.3KT (90.0mph 145.0km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 26, 2005 1:02:00 PM (Fri, 26 Aug 2005 17:02:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 24° 55' N 082° 32' W (24.9°N 82.5°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2853m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
No Bearing From Center To Estimated Surface Winds Was Measured
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 073KT (83.95mph 135.2km/h) From 250°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 009nm (10.4 miles) From Center At Bearing 149°
Minimum pressure: 969mb (28.61in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Elliptical , E15/16/10
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[WindRunner]

Oh wow:

MAX FL WIND 87 KT SW QUAD 16:01:40 Z

The SW? That's interesting.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261722
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 29 KNHC
1712 2517N 08257W 03050 0039 056 064 108 096 064 03136 0000000000
1712. 2519N 08258W 03048 0044 059 063 110 092 063 03139 0000000000
1713 2520N 08300W 03045 0048 058 060 106 092 061 03140 0000000000
1713. 2521N 08301W 03050 0053 059 060 106 094 061 03150 0000000000
1714 2523N 08303W 03047 0055 060 061 120 084 062 03149 0000000000
1714. 2524N 08304W 03047 0061 061 060 120 086 062 03155 0000000000
1715 2525N 08305W 03048 0065 055 055 116 092 055 03159 0000000000
1715. 2527N 08307W 03047 0067 054 054 130 072 055 03161 0000000000
1716 2528N 08308W 03049 0070 055 053 130 070 053 03167 0000000000
1716. 2529N 08310W 03047 0074 055 052 134 070 053 03167 0000000000
1717 2530N 08311W 03049 0077 052 051 132 066 052 03172 0000000000
1717. 2532N 08313W 03046 0078 049 050 134 068 051 03171 0000000000
1718 2533N 08314W 03050 0081 048 047 128 078 048 03178 0000000000
1718. 2534N 08315W 03048 0084 048 045 124 086 046 03179 0000000000
1719 2535N 08317W 03048 0087 046 044 120 092 045 03182 0000000000
1719. 2537N 08318W 03049 0088 047 043 116 094 043 03185 0000000000
1720 2538N 08319W 03046 0091 039 040 116 098 041 03184 0000000000
1720. 2539N 08321W 03048 0092 040 038 114 100 039 03187 0000000000
1721 2540N 08322W 03048 0095 038 035 116 096 036 03189 0000000000
1721. 2542N 08324W 03047 0096 038 035 114 090 036 03190 0000000000

[Thunder44]

The SE Quad looks to be strongest in this storm now.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261732
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 30 KNHC
1722 2543N 08325W 03049 0098 037 037 116 078 038 03194 0000000000
1722. 2544N 08326W 03048 0099 038 037 110 082 038 03193 0000000000
1723 2545N 08328W 03048 0100 039 037 110 076 037 03195 0000000000
1723. 2546N 08329W 03047 0101 041 038 108 072 039 03195 0000000000
1724 2548N 08330W 03049 0102 044 037 104 080 037 03198 0000000000
1724. 2549N 08332W 03047 0104 046 036 100 084 037 03198 0000000000
1725 2550N 08333W 03049 0104 050 035 094 086 036 03200 0000000000
1725. 2551N 08335W 03047 0105 048 034 090 090 034 03199 0000000000
1726 2553N 08336W 03048 0106 046 035 090 088 036 03201 0000000000
1726. 2554N 08337W 03048 0106 047 036 090 086 036 03202 0000000000
1727 2555N 08339W 03048 0107 050 036 090 084 037 03202 0000000000
1727. 2556N 08340W 03047 0107 052 035 096 078 035 03201 0000000000
1728 2558N 08342W 03048 0108 053 035 096 076 035 03203 0000000000
1728. 2559N 08343W 03049 0110 054 036 104 068 037 03206 0000000000
1729 2600N 08345W 03047 0111 054 038 106 072 040 03205 0000000000
1729. 2601N 08346W 03047 0112 053 039 110 070 039 03206 0000000000
1730 2603N 08347W 03049 0113 055 039 110 068 040 03209 0000000000
1730. 2604N 08349W 03047 0114 056 038 108 074 038 03208 0000000000
1731 2605N 08350W 03048 0116 053 036 110 072 037 03211 0000000000
1731. 2607N 08352W 03048 0117 053 037 114 070 037 03212 0000000000

[clfenwi]

12Z NOGAPS landfall forecast looks to be similar to the UKMET's... MS/LA border...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=084

Complete loop:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005082612

[clfenwi]

12Z GFDL brings Katrina ashore just east of Biloxi, Mississippi:

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA 12L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 25.2 81.9 255./ 6.0
6 25.2 82.4 276./ 4.4
12 25.2 82.9 268./ 4.7
18 25.5 83.2 309./ 3.4
24 25.9 83.7 309./ 6.0
30 26.2 84.4 297./ 6.5
36 26.4 85.2 283./ 8.2
42 26.5 86.1 279./ 7.8
48 26.9 87.0 295./ 8.7
54 27.3 87.8 299./ 8.2
60 27.8 88.2 316./ 6.4
66 28.4 88.6 329./ 6.8
72 29.5 88.7 354./11.0
78 30.6 88.8 355./10.6
84 31.5 88.7 8./ 9.4
90 32.7 88.3 16./12.2
96 34.5 87.9 14./17.7
102 36.4 87.4 14./20.0
108 38.1 86.9 16./17.4
114 39.4 86.7 11./13.3
120 40.8 86.0 26./14.2
126 41.7 85.1 48./11.4

[jkt21787]

Hopefully folks in MS/AL and even SE LA are paying close attention to the trends of the models. It is looking more serious for them with each run nearly...

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261742
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 31 KNHC
1732 2608N 08353W 03049 0117 053 037 112 072 038 03213 0000000000
1732. 2609N 08355W 03047 0118 054 039 116 068 040 03212 0000000000
1733 2610N 08356W 03047 0119 054 040 120 056 041 03213 0000000000
1733. 2612N 08358W 03050 0120 054 041 120 052 041 03218 0000000000
1734 2613N 08359W 03049 0126 054 039 120 052 040 03222 0000000000
1734. 2612N 08401W 03049 0128 050 039 120 052 039 03224 0000000000
1735 2610N 08401W 03044 0122 046 037 120 052 038 03213 0000000000
1735. 2608N 08401W 03049 0120 044 037 120 050 037 03217 0000000000
1736 2606N 08401W 03048 0119 042 037 120 050 037 03214 0000000000
1736. 2604N 08401W 03047 0118 042 037 120 050 037 03212 0000000000
1737 2602N 08401W 03048 0118 041 038 120 056 038 03212 0000000000
1737. 2600N 08401W 03048 0117 042 036 118 066 037 03212 0000000000
1738 2558N 08401W 03050 0116 041 034 116 068 034 03213 0000000000
1738. 2556N 08401W 03047 0115 039 033 116 066 033 03208 0000000000
1739 2554N 08401W 03048 0114 039 034 116 068 034 03208 0000000000
1739. 2552N 08401W 03049 0113 041 035 112 070 035 03209 0000000000
1740 2550N 08401W 03047 0113 042 035 114 068 036 03206 0000000000
1740. 2548N 08401W 03050 0112 040 036 110 068 036 03208 0000000000
1741 2546N 08401W 03048 0111 037 035 110 068 035 03206 0000000000
1741. 2544N 08401W 03046 0111 038 035 114 068 036 03204 0000000000

[caneman]

that seems to show the trough missing it

[jkt21787]

Hopefully folks in MS/AL and even SE LA are paying close attention to the trends of the models. It is looking more serious for them with each run nearly...