Joe Bastardi: Katrina will be 910mb N of 25N

[The Big Dog]

Oh please, no. Some of us can bring up his old posts where he was predicting armegeddon and worse on other systems, and nothing happened. He was a troll, plain and simple. If you keep predicting gloom and doom, odds are you will be right sooner or later. The epitome of "a broken clock is right twice a day." He was quite literally making stuff up, and I'm not about to give him credit for anything.

[Swimdude]

more ridiculous hootin and hollerin


edit:

and subscription fetchin.

Don't be so sure. I don't think it will get to 910...but I would not be at all shocked to see 920-930. I think it will bottom out at about 930-940...but any lower would no surprise me.

I think 910MB is a tad is a very overated forecast from Joe B.

Statistically speaking, it's incredibly rare for a hurricane to reach 910. Of course it's possible. These are perfect conditions. Fluctuations must occur eventually, however.

[Air Force Met]

Ive been lurking for quite a while. I agree that dudes forecast what not that far off. Please reinstate him. All boards need alittle pep when things are slow.

Again...you guys aren't getting it. It wasn't the forecast. It was all the other stuff. There are plenty of people still here that had forecasts that were off the wall.

It wasn't the forecast. Say it with me...it wasn't the forecast.

[jax]

more ridiculous hootin and hollerin


edit:

and subscription fetchin.

Don't be so sure. I don't think it will get to 910...but I would not be at all shocked to see 920-930. I think it will bottom out at about 930-940...but any lower would no surprise me.

I think 910MB is a tad is a very overated forecast from Joe B.

I'm curious... what factor is inplace... or will be in place that will keep
her from 910? The only thing i see to hinder her are ERC's... there is
plenty of time over water, plenty of energy to draw on, relatively no
sheer...

[jkt21787]

Ive been lurking for quite a while. I agree that dudes forecast what not that far off. Please reinstate him. All boards need alittle pep when things are slow.

Again...you guys aren't getting it. It wasn't the forecast. It was all the other stuff. There are plenty of people still here that had forecasts that were off the wall.

It wasn't the forecast. Say it with me...it wasn't the forecast.

It wasn't the forecast...

Seriously, as The Big Dog said, a broken clock is twice in one day. His forecasts were extreme exaggerations at the least, trolling at the most reasonable and likely. As AFM said, it was the other stuff too. Bringing said member back would be a bad idea, IMO.

[jkt21787]

more ridiculous hootin and hollerin


edit:

and subscription fetchin.

Don't be so sure. I don't think it will get to 910...but I would not be at all shocked to see 920-930. I think it will bottom out at about 930-940...but any lower would no surprise me.

I think 910MB is a tad is a very overated forecast from Joe B.

I'm curious... what factor is inplace... or will be in place that will keep
her from 910? The only thing i see to hinder her are ERC's... there is
plenty of time over water, plenty of energy to draw on, relatively no
sheer...

Heat content and depth of very warm waters is not extremely high, so a sub 920 or cat 5 seems very unlikely. 920 to 940 does seem quite possible, which indicates a cat 4. There is little or no shear ( ) and waters are very warm at least closer to the surface so we'll see what happens.

[drezee]

bumped for likely servings of crow

[Steve]

Not saying these maps are right by any stretch, but look off the LA & MS Coasts. The oceanic heat content can support some pretty low pressure. This is something to think about should Katrina decide to go gamblnig on Monday.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

[Air Force Met]

Heat content and depth of very warm waters is not extremely high, so a sub 920 or cat 5 seems very unlikely. 920 to 940 does seem quite possible, which indicates a cat 4. There is little or no shear ( ) and waters are very warm at least closer to the surface so we'll see what happens.

Sorry...just saw this...if I had seen it earlier...I would have said: "WHAT?"

The highest heat content in the Atlantic Basin is sitting south of NOLA. tHE DEPTH of the 26C isotherm is also the DEEPEST in the Atlantic Basin...south of NOLA.

Not sure where you are getting your info...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5238at.jpg

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8atd26.png

[Thunder44]

Heat content and depth of very warm waters is not extremely high, so a sub 920 or cat 5 seems very unlikely. 920 to 940 does seem quite possible, which indicates a cat 4. There is little or no shear ( ) and waters are very warm at least closer to the surface so we'll see what happens.

Sorry...just saw this...if I had seen it earlier...I would have said: "WHAT?"

The highest heat content in the Atlantic Basin is sitting south of NOLA. tHE DEPTH of the 26C isotherm is also the DEEPEST in the Atlantic Basin...south of NOLA.

Not sure where you are getting your info...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5238at.jpg


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8atd26.png

Yes, the but the lowest heat content is offshore of Louisana too. It may weaken right before landfall to Cat 3 again, like Dennis and Ivan have when they reach north Gulf Coast, hitting those shelf waters. Cat 4 and 5's need to need deep heat ocean waters to sustain themselves.

[Air Force Met]

Not saying these maps are right by any stretch, but look off the LA & MS Coasts. The oceanic heat content can support some pretty low pressure. This is something to think about should Katrina decide to go gamblnig on Monday.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

Thanks...those are the maps I was looking for to post. My old link didn't work.

[drezee]

Heat content and depth of very warm waters is not extremely high, so a sub 920 or cat 5 seems very unlikely. 920 to 940 does seem quite possible, which indicates a cat 4. There is little or no shear ( ) and waters are very warm at least closer to the surface so we'll see what happens.

Sorry...just saw this...if I had seen it earlier...I would have said: "WHAT?"

The highest heat content in the Atlantic Basin is sitting south of NOLA. tHE DEPTH of the 26C isotherm is also the DEEPEST in the Atlantic Basin...south of NOLA.

Not sure where you are getting your info...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5238at.jpg


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8atd26.png

Yes, the but the lowest heat content is offshore of Louisana too. It may weaken right before landfall to Cat 3 again, like Dennis and Ivan have when they reach north Gulf Coast, hitting those shelf waters. Cat 4 and 5's need to need deep heat ocean waters to sustain themselves.

This also includes the speed of the storm's movement. A storm like camille constantly moving toward the coast,

[Air Force Met]

Yes, the but the lowest heat content is offshore of Louisana too. It may weaken right before landfall to Cat 3 again, like Dennis and Ivan have when they reach north Gulf Coast, hitting those shelf waters. Cat 4 and 5's need to need deep heat ocean waters to sustain themselves.

That's ONLY because the waters are shallow and there is not as much water to give off heat. If the water off the coast was 1000M deep...you could bet that the heat content would be just as high there. The given the speed it will be moving over the area...and given the sfc temps are 88-90F...plenty of energy. The KJ2/C calculations are lower because the depth. Trust me...there is ample heat. Dennis came in on the downhill slide of an ERC. Ivan moved over waters that had previously been cooled and was having some structure problems.

Bottom line...the water and upper air potential are there for a cat 5...all the way to the coast. If it gets some dry air in 2 days...or is coming in on the downhill side of an ERC...then it will be a cat three. The potential remains for a Cat 5. They are rare...but just because they are rare doesn't mean you can rule it out. Always go with the worst case scenario...it eleviates the amount of guilt you will feel later.

[wxwatcher2]

:grrr: Why is there no more free Bastardi videos anymore?

LOL ... apparently, Yahoo never had the right to be posting those to begin with. I'm kind of amazed that slaccuweather's legal dept. didn't jump on that sooner.

Can you say "free advertising". JB is selling a product. He reminds me of a cheerleader trying to root all hurricanes to New Orleans and making them all CAT 5's.

[btangy]

SSTanoms and potential intensity have maxima near the coast of Louisiana. The only possibility of any weakening before landfall will come from increasing south-westerly shear and/or dry air intrusion, but I see two things arguing against any drastic weakening:

1. Katrina is a fairly large storm and large storms tend to fend off moderate amounts of wind shear. The large size also reduces the impact of any dry air intrusions.

2. Katrina will be accelerating northward reducing the shear relative to the storm motion (if the shear is from the S). If the upper levels winds are more from the W, then there will be a greater impact on Katrina.

[drezee]

Joe was right!!

[TPACane04]

more ridiculous hootin and hollerin


edit:

and subscription fetchin.

Don't be so sure. I don't think it will get to 910...but I would not be at all shocked to see 920-930. I think it will bottom out at about 930-940...but any lower would no surprise me.

I think 910MB is a tad is a very overated forecast from Joe B.

I'm curious... what factor is inplace... or will be in place that will keep
her from 910? The only thing i see to hinder her are ERC's... there is
plenty of time over water, plenty of energy to draw on, relatively no
sheer...

Heat content and depth of very warm waters is not extremely high, so a sub 920 or cat 5 seems very unlikely. 920 to 940 does seem quite possible, which indicates a cat 4. There is little or no shear ( ) and waters are very warm at least closer to the surface so we'll see what happens.

JKT, care to update your thoughts now?? No such thing as "very unlikely" with this storm...

[johngaltfla]

bumped for likely servings of crow

Lot's of crow to serve. It's 908 mb and I could see it dropping more. There's nothing to stop this storm now. Nothing.

Joe B got it right on the money. And he'll be more in demand than ever.

[x-y-no]

Gotta give him credit for this one. In fact, the critcism in the end may wind up being that he was too conservative. Of course, I said more likely 930mb, so I can't offer that criticism myself.

This is a frightening situation - truly the nightmare scenario. Just read Derek's forecast this morning, and he calls for a somewhat quicker landfall, which means there's precious little time for evacuating those who didn't leave yesterday. I'm dismayed that more mandatory evacs weren't ordered yesterday, particularly of NO. They may come to seriously regret that decision.

[cjrciadt]

I was expecting 925 right now, now 895 could come before landfall.