12z gfs - nola

[Brent]

Throwing out an early apology to all of you in NO if she heads that way. I just bought 4 airline tickets last night to come visit your beautiful city for the 1st time for new years eve. Seriously though everyone needs to watch this storm and stay safe. Debbie

Well when Katrina gets done there may not be a city...

[Mattie]

Realistically thinking, based on the last evacuation in New Orleans (which turned out unnecessary - although agreed, better safe than sorry) - What are the true odds that they are going to call Katrina this far out and begin an evacuation. It is VERY possible that they won't have three days notice and right now - three days out - there is only speculation about what is ahead for any point on the GOM. . . .

I say they won't call for evacuation until late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

As they say - just my $.02 . . .

[Brent]

I say they won't call for evacuation until late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

and by then it's too late to get everyone out... by Sunday Afternoon(based on current projections), weather conditions will be deteroiating and by the time night falls, it'll probably be too dangerous to drive.

[skysummit]

Right now the NOLA mets are still agreeing with the NHC. They all do seem a little nervous and cautious and say we are definately not out of danger yet. My thinking is if she is still heading west to WNW tomorrow and more of the models push further west, they'll begin talking about evacs tomorrow evening /Sunday morning.

[canetracker]

Considering the 12z nogaps and gfs, most here in metro New Orleans are watching. Local mets, except for Bob Breck, are all going along with the NHC, but informing us to not let our gaurd down yet. Most here fear that by the time they actually realize that a storm is heading for us, it will be to late to get everyone out.

[Derecho]

Right now the NOLA mets are still agreeing with the NHC. They all do seem a little nervous and cautious and say we are definately not out of danger yet. My thinking is if she is still heading west to WNW tomorrow and more of the models push further west, they'll begin talking about evacs tomorrow evening /Sunday morning.

More of the models? ALL of the models worth anything have a Louisiana or Misssippi landfall now...GFS, GFDL, NGP, UKMET, and ECMWF.

[Mattie]

Yep - my point exactly - they'll wait until the probabilities rise and then it will be too late. Guess this is when you use your own best judgment if you have the time to take off on Monday - grab a hotel room in some quaint little town north of there (Perhaps Arkansas? ROFL), take a cooler, your valuables and enjoy your stay. (semi joking here)

My parents are there - they are 87; my sister, daughter and grandson are also there. They won't budge after the numerous false alarms and the small effect they have gotten in previous years. It is scary, because I know someday they are going to be surprised (as are many other south Louisiana dwellers). Let's hope and pray that Katrina gives some definite indications by midnight tonight to allow for anyone along the GOM that has to make a decision to stay or go, can.

[smashmode]

Ugh.

They need to evacuate NOLA right now.

There is only one major highway out of NOLA.

Cat 5 at Nola?

[Ixolib]

Right now the NOLA mets are still agreeing with the NHC. They all do seem a little nervous and cautious and say we are definately not out of danger yet. My thinking is if she is still heading west to WNW tomorrow and more of the models push further west, they'll begin talking about evacs tomorrow evening /Sunday morning.

More of the models? ALL of the models worth anything have a Louisiana or Misssippi landfall now...GFS, GFDL, NGP, UKMET, and ECMWF.

Don't suppose you have a graphic for that, huh??

[gboudx]

1 major highway? Unless they blew up 4 of the main highways out of the NOLA area, then there should be 5.

1) I-10 East
2) I-10 West
3) The causeway
4) I-55
5) Hwy 90

[Mattie]

Here are the contraflow evacuation maps - - -

Not much to choose from when you are ALL trying to leave. . .

http://www.dotd.state.la.us/maps/

[sunny]

Okay, I'm not liking this. Here is a post from John Gumm and the Channel weather forum.



Storm has gone through a rare rapid intensification period this morning. 100 mph winds at the last update making it a Cat 2. Conditions appear to be favorable for further intensification in the Gulf.

The track forecast is becoming a bit problematic. Early run tropical models are still clustered on the FL panhandle while the Navy NOGAPS and now the GFS are showing a track right into SE Louisiana. It is a bit disturbing to say the least that we continue to see this trend west with some, but not all of the models. However, this defiantly does not mean the trend will continue. In fact, we saw the exact same model behavior during Ivan where the models started east…some came back west right over us…then trended back east again. The differences have to do with how the models are handling the development of the shortwave trough and the response of the high pressure to it. I will be curious to see the new European model and how it handles things. It should also be noted that the GFDL has done a good job with this system so far, but keeps the storm over the western FL panhandle.

Anyway, I will continue to monitor data as it comes in and will provide updates as I can.
_________________
John Gumm
Morning Meteorologist
WWL TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116
jgumm@wwltv.com

[gboudx]

sunny it may be smart to do some preliminary packing just in case. Worst case, you waste time packing, then unpacking.

[duris]

I will be curious to see the new European model and how it handles things.

Yeah, and according to Zack on the same forum, the Euro comes out---SE Louisiana

[sunny]

sunny it may be smart to do some preliminary packing just in case. Worst case, you waste time packing, then unpacking.

lol - I'm a pro at that - did that for Dennis!! I've got my check list ready

[Air Force Met]

What concerns me about the 12z GFS is that the model now seems to have a handle on the intensity of the system. If you look at yesterday's run...Kat barely showed up as a weak low with a vortmax at 500mb...not even closed at that level.

The shift has probably come because now the model knows how intense it's going to be...and a stronger storm is steered at different levels. At 300mb...it has a ridge nosing over the system towards the NW...and thus it keeps it moving W and NW longer.

[gboudx]

AFM, would put SELA more in play? I only bring up that one area because of all the evacuation problems and headaches down there. And because most of my family lives down there.

[canetracker]

12z Euro

[Air Force Met]

AFM, would put SELA more in play? I only bring up that one area because of all the evacuation problems and headaches down there. And because most of my family lives down there.

Certainly in play. With the GFS/NOGAPS now moving west...you certainly have to keep SELA in play.

Ooops..add the EURO to that mix...

[x-y-no]

12Z GFDL takes it into Mississippi as a 938mb storm in 3 days. Gets it as low as 930mb out in the Gulf.