Could The Trough Miss Katrina?

[Swimdude]

I must admit, the NHS has done a better job in track forecasting this year than any season before... With the exception of Cindy. Dennis and Emily followed nearly the EXACT track that the NHS predicted.

Thus, I'm not doubting the current track. Yes, the landfall may be closer to New Orleans than previously thought, but they're in the NHS cone of uncertainty, after all. Any further West than that, I highly doubt it.

[gboudx]

dude, the ridge is strong and not migrated....

Dude, its moving west, the western edge is building towards NMex and the eastern edge is in AL, it is migrating West. Any other opinions other than the dog.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Before we just blow-off deltadog's opinion, maybe he could use some data to support his position.

[Stormcenter]

I would worry if I were living anywhere from Houston to Tampa. This one looks like it has the potential to be a MONSTER storm.

[ROCK]

I would worry if I were living anywhere from Houston to Tampa. This one looks like it has the potential to be a MONSTER storm.

I agree...SC...Tampa to LA but Im not leaning Texas west just yet...

[ROCK]

dude, the ridge is strong and not migrated....

Dude, its moving west, the western edge is building towards NMex and the eastern edge is in AL, it is migrating West. Any other opinions other than the dog.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

I have an opinion.... I looked at the WV loop and low and behold, I can still see the ridge in the same area as yesterday. I dont see a shift west but thanks for the link anyway....

[dwg71]

dude, the ridge is strong and not migrated....

Dude, its moving west, the western edge is building towards NMex and the eastern edge is in AL, it is migrating West. Any other opinions other than the dog.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

I have an opinion.... I looked at the WV loop and low and behold, I can still see the ridge in the same area as yesterday. I dont see a shift west but thanks for the link anyway....

Do you have a link to the water vapor image from yesterday? I would like to compare.

[HouTXmetro]

dude, the ridge is strong and not migrated....

Dude, its moving west, the western edge is building towards NMex and the eastern edge is in AL, it is migrating West. Any other opinions other than the dog.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

I have an opinion.... I looked at the WV loop and low and behold, I can still see the ridge in the same area as yesterday. I dont see a shift west but thanks for the link anyway....

Agreed, my novice analysis of that loop is the high centered over LA is moving South, not West. The western edge of the High near NM/TX border is not budging.

Just an Opinion

[perk]

Boca Chris you're getting pretty darn good at this trough/ridge thing, Good job.

[Swimdude]

I would worry if I were living anywhere from Houston to Tampa. This one looks like it has the potential to be a MONSTER storm.

I'm not too worried here in Houston, to be quite honest.

[HouTXmetro]

Not too worried here but a couple of models are now as far west as Central Louisiana Coast. If they keep trending any farther west......

[dwg71]

Not too worried here but a couple of models are now as far west as Central Louisiana Coast. If they keep trending any farther west......

I'm not worried either (Pasadena), but wouldn't mind if it came in at the most unpopulated portions of Central LA, just for the pick up in surf on the island, and give FL, MS, and the GREAT state of AL, a break.

[HouTXmetro]

Not too worried here but a couple of models are now as far west as Central Louisiana Coast. If they keep trending any farther west......

I'm not worried either (Pasadena), but wouldn't mind if it came in at the most unpopulated portions of Central LA, just for the pick up in surf on the island, and give FL, MS, and the GREAT state of AL, a break.

Hey neighbor!!!! I didn't know u lived in Pasadena. I drive Pasadena everyday on my way to work.

[Nimbus]

I'm not worried either (Pasadena), but wouldn't mind if it came in at the most unpopulated portions of Central LA, just for the pick up in surf on the island, and give FL, MS, and the GREAT state of AL, a break.

Just suppose the NHC decides to point the official track towards central coast of LA.

Then what does the NHC do if the storm recurves a little more than thought?

Just a few degrees in track change puts the storm on the eastern evacuation routes for New Orleans.

[PTrackerLA]

Not too worried here but a couple of models are now as far west as Central Louisiana Coast. If they keep trending any farther west......

I'm not worried either (Pasadena), but wouldn't mind if it came in at the most unpopulated portions of Central LA, just for the pick up in surf on the island, and give FL, MS, and the GREAT state of AL, a break.

Louisiana has the most fragile, eroding, coastline in the United States. We loose a football field size of land every day. There are also quite a few decent sized population centers near the coast (Houma, Morgan City, New Iberia, Lafayette) so many people would be affected let alone the devastated wetland ecosystems. Don't wish major canes on Louisiana, thanks.

[Rainband]

We aren't the models..some of them anyway..are.