NO Evacuations, running out of time

[logybogy]

They better get on the ball soon and take this storm seriously. All signs point to a much further west landfall than what the NHC says.

Also, the oil rigs near the Louisiana coast are sure to sustain significant damage on this more westward track....

Can anyone say $3 a gallon?

[tallywx]

They better get on the ball soon and take this storm seriously. All signs point to a much further west landfall than what the NHC says.

Also, the oil rigs near the Louisiana coast are sure to sustain significant damage on this more westward track....

Can anyone say $3 a gallon?

Yes, I can already say that. I pay $2.99/gallon for plus unleaded out here in California.

[rtd2]

They better get on the ball soon and take this storm seriously. All signs point to a much further west landfall than what the NHC says.

Also, the oil rigs near the Louisiana coast are sure to sustain significant damage on this more westward track....

Can anyone say $3 a gallon?

NHC has a GOOD handle on this...Yes some of the Models have shifted West but They will go back and Forth. The same thing happened with Dennis (NOLA wasnt ordered to evac) and as it turned out the NHC was Correct.

On a Side note Oil/Gas rigs are being Evacuauted as we speak.

[Steve]

We're already likely inside of the 3 days required to get as many people out as they can. Not to mention that if this pans out in tomorrow's runs, no one is going to be prepared and the stores will be swamped. Chances are (and this is just my gut) that the models will swing back and forth and settle somewhere east of here but maybe farther west than NW FL as I had thought. Regardless, we've got a legitimate shot at the strongest storm to hit the Northern Gulf Coast since Camille (per JB). I don't care if you live in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Florida, somebody's going to pay an EXTREMELY heavy price.

Steve

[loon]

They better get on the ball soon and take this storm seriously. All signs point to a much further west landfall than what the NHC says.

Also, the oil rigs near the Louisiana coast are sure to sustain significant damage on this more westward track....

Can anyone say $3 a gallon?

NHC has a GOOD handle on this...Yes some of the Models have shifted West but They will go back and Forth. The same thing happened with Dennis (NOLA wasnt ordered to evac) and as it turned out the NHC was Correct.

On a Side note Oil/Gas rigs are being Evacuauted as we speak.

So then if the NHC says at 5pm or 8pm that they shift west with the models, what then?

I'm not flaming, I'm just saying, they've changed their tune before, and it usually followed consistant model track changes. We probably are not at the "consistant model track change" stage just yet, but if we should get to that point, then NHC will move to.

[jax]

They better get on the ball soon and take this storm seriously. All signs point to a much further west landfall than what the NHC says.

Also, the oil rigs near the Louisiana coast are sure to sustain significant damage on this more westward track....

Can anyone say $3 a gallon?

NHC has a GOOD handle on this...Yes some of the Models have shifted West but They will go back and Forth. The same thing happened with Dennis (NOLA wasnt ordered to evac) and as it turned out the NHC was Correct.


it's not SOME of the models have moved west...
it's ALL of the models have moved west... the NHC
forcast is out there all by it's self... for now. I would
not be surprised at all to see them shift as far as Mobile
at the 5pm update... JMHO... we will see soon enough.

[sunny]

If Katrina decides to come here, we are screwed. Plain and simple. No way do you get everyone evacuated.

[HollynLA]

NHC has a GOOD handle on this...Yes some of the Models have shifted West but They will go back and Forth. The same thing happened with Dennis (NOLA wasnt ordered to evac) and as it turned out the NHC was Correct.

While I really really like to believe they have a good handle on this, why do I get this image of a bunch of guys sitting around scratching their heads in complete frustration because even they are not sure. They are holding firm with their track so far but I feel it will probably shift west. The NHC does not make large shifts, so by making small shifts, their track may reach the MS line by Sunday evening, when it's too late anyway.

I'm not bashing the NHC, stormtracking is not a science so there are no definite answers. While we should listen to the NHC, it certainly shouldn't be considered set in stone till the storm is already inland.

[Brent]

If Katrina decides to come here, we are screwed. Plain and simple. No way do you get everyone evacuated.

and the problem with that is... anyone not evacuated will drown.

[sunny]

If Katrina decides to come here, we are screwed. Plain and simple. No way do you get everyone evacuated.

and the problem with that is... anyone not evacuated will drown.

Tell me about it! I am getting very nervous here. Oh, my head is killing me.

[rtd2]

They better get on the ball soon and take this storm seriously. All signs point to a much further west landfall than what the NHC says.

Also, the oil rigs near the Louisiana coast are sure to sustain significant damage on this more westward track....

Can anyone say $3 a gallon?

NHC has a GOOD handle on this...Yes some of the Models have shifted West but They will go back and Forth. The same thing happened with Dennis (NOLA wasnt ordered to evac) and as it turned out the NHC was Correct.

On a Side note Oil/Gas rigs are being Evacuauted as we speak.

So then if the NHC says at 5pm or 8pm that they shift west with the models, what then?

I'm not flaming, I'm just saying, they've changed their tune before, and it usually followed consistant model track changes. We probably are not at the "consistant model track change" stage just yet, but if we should get to that point, then NHC will move to.

Loon I agree But we've seen this Enough to Know the NHC's not just going to drop the current package and swing BIG East or west. they take GRADUAL shifts as to Not to set off the HYPE machine. There is STILL time Remeber Yesturday they were talking a Sunday L/F NOW since the Storm has CONTINUED west (Even South west at times) Land fall has been pushed Back till monday! 5pm I expect a P'cola L/F point By NHC Then maybe shift over to Mobile by in the Morning IF current Trends Hold!

[FritzPaul]

If there is a threat, they're suppose to start Phase 1 Evacs at 50 hrs out.

From the looks of this storm, if needed they would have to start early Sat. am.

Opinion: From living here most my life, nobody's going to really start moving until Phase 3, Hence gridlock on the contraflow system again.

[Brent]

If Katrina decides to come here, we are screwed. Plain and simple. No way do you get everyone evacuated.

and the problem with that is... anyone not evacuated will drown.

Tell me about it! I am getting very nervous here. Oh, my head is killing me.

Mine is too... way too much time on the computer.

[Brent]

If there is a threat, they're suppose to start Phase 1 Evacs at 50 hrs out.

From the looks of this storm, if needed they would have to start early Sat. am.

Opinion: From living here most my life, nobody's going to really start moving until Phase 3, Hence gridlock on the contraflow system again.

I'd be booking a plane ticket...

[sunny]

If there is a threat, they're suppose to start Phase 1 Evacs at 50 hrs out.

From the looks of this storm, if needed they would have to start early Sat. am.

Opinion: From living here most my life, nobody's going to really start moving until Phase 3, Hence gridlock on the contraflow system again.

I thought phase one was 75 hours out?

[Mattie]

Just so those that are not familiar with evacuation in New Orleans and to better understand the difficulty in getting out - below are the contraflow directions . . . . Be sure you know where you are going before you leave town and know what color flag to follow!! Seriously guys - the evacuation for New Orleans is not a simple "ok evacuate command".

Phase III Contraflow Instructions

I-10 West Contraflow Lanes:

* The eastbound and westbound lanes of I-10 from Clearview Parkway in Metairie to I-55 North in LaPlace will be used as westbound lanes. On the Contraflow Plan, the normal westbound lanes are shown with BROWN arrows and the Contraflow (eastbound) lanes are shown with BLUE arrows.
* All I-10 West entrances through New Orleans, Metairie and Kenner will be used in their normal manner to gain access to I-10 West.

I-55 North Contraflow Lanes:

* The northbound and southbound lanes of I-55 from I-12 in Hammond to the Mississippi state line will be used as northbound lanes. On the Contraflow Plan, the normal northbound lanes are shown with RED arrows and the Contraflow (southbound) lanes are shown with BROWN arrows.
* Traffic traveling I-55 North (BROWN) will be diverted onto I-55 North Contraflow and will only be allowed to exit at two locations: Exit 47 (LA-16) in Amite and Exit 61 (LA-38) in Kentwood.

I-59 North Contraflow Lanes:

* The northbound and southbound lanes of I-59, north of the I-10/I-12/I-59 interchange, will be used as northbound lanes. On the Contraflow Plan, the normal northbound lanes are shown with PURPLE arrows and the Contraflow (southbound) lanes are shown with GREEN arrows.

BROWN Arrows (I-10/I-55 North to Hammond and Mississippi):

* In LaPlace, the I-10 West (BROWN) lanes will be diverted to I-55 North toward Hammond and Mississippi. Traffic will not be allowed to continue on I-10 West at this interchange.
* All traffic traveling on I-55 North will travel in the existing northbound lanes.
* When traffic traveling on I-55 North reaches the I-55/I-12 interchange in Hammond, I-55 will begin to Contraflow (both the north and south lanes will travel north into Mississippi).

BLUE Arrows (I-10 West to Baton Rouge):

* Traffic destined for Baton Rouge may enter the Contraflow (eastbound) lanes from Clearview Parkway, Veterans Boulevard or Williams Boulevard in New Orleans (see diagrams).
* Traffic destined for Baton Rouge may enter the Contraflow (eastbound) lanes from I-10 West via a cross- over at the Clearview Parkway overpass. This is the only opportunity to enter the Contraflow (eastbound) lanes from I-10 West without exiting and re-entering the interstate.
* In LaPlace, I-10 Contraflow traffic (BLUE) will be diverted onto the westbound lanes of I-10 and will continue west on I-10 toward Baton Rouge.

RED Arrows (Lake Pontchartrain Causeway to Covington, I-12, Hammond, Mississippi):

* Northbound traffic on the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway (RED) will be diverted onto I-12 West (RED) at the US-190/I-12 interchange and will continue on I-12 West to Hammond.
* I-12 West (RED) will be diverted onto I-55 North (RED) at the I-12/I-55 interchange in Hammond.
* I-55 North (RED) will continue north into Mississippi.

GREEN Arrows (I-10 East to I-59, North to Slidell, Mississippi):

* I-10 East traffic (GREEN) from New Orleans will cross the I-10 Twin Spans using the three eastbound lanes.
* Contraflow of I-59 will begin at the I-10/I-12/I-59 interchange.
* At the I-10/I-12/I-59 interchange, the left and center lanes of eastbound I-10 will be diverted onto southbound I-59 (GREEN). Only the right lane will continue onto I-59 North (PURPLE).
* The I-10 East (GREEN) traffic will not be allowed to continue on I-10 East or enter I-12 West.

PURPLE Arrows (I-59 North to Mississippi from I-10 West):

* I-10 East traffic (GREEN) from New Orleans will cross the I-10 East Twin Spans using the three eastbound lanes.
* Only the right lane (GREEN) will continue onto I-59 North (PURPLE).
* All traffic on I-10 West (PURPLE) from Mississippi will be diverted on I-59 North (PURPLE) at the I-10/I-12/I-59 interchange.
* I-10 West traffic will not be allowed to continue westbound on I-10 or I-12.

ORANGE Arrows (I-12 Westbound - Covington/Hammond):

* Traffic traveling on I-12 West (RED) between Covington (US-190) and Hammond (I-55) will NOT be allowed to continue on I-12 West. This traffic must divert onto I-55 North.
* Traffic traveling on I-12 West between Slidell (I-10/I-12/I-59 interchange) and Covington (US-190) will NOT be allowed to continue I-12 West. This traffic will be diverted onto US-190 West.
* Traffic traveling on US-190 West will be allowed to continue to Baton Rouge.

All Interstate exit ramps will be open to normal traffic flow. Interstate exit ramps in the Contraflow lanes will be limited and marked with variable message boards.
Study this map and CHOOSE YOUR ROUTE WISELY. There will be many restrictions on the Interstate system. Upon entering the contraflow area, it may not be possible to change routes. Contraflow operations will begin when evacuations are initiated in Jefferson and Orleans parishes. If you do not wish to evacuate under the contraflow restrictions, your best strategy is to LEAVE EARLY before contraflow is activated.

[skysummit]

Here's the map:

http://www.dotd.state.la.us/maps/web_contraflow2.jpg

[loon]

I do understand that the "environment" will change in the next 72 hours, but watching WV loops right now, and watching the "flow" of everything out in the GOMEX, it appears to me (call it wishcast, whatever, sticks and stones my break my bones, your flames will never hurt me, or insert your own clever saying here) it would come into Texas. Is the continued WSW movement causing the model swing? Are the upper dynamics changing? Will the Packers beat the Bears both times this year? Should Jack Black probably not have done the movie Envy with Ben Stiller? This are all questions burning my very internet soul to the core.....

cheers,
loon

[FritzPaul]

If there is a threat, they're suppose to start Phase 1 Evacs at 50 hrs out.

From the looks of this storm, if needed they would have to start early Sat. am.

Opinion: From living here most my life, nobody's going to really start moving until Phase 3, Hence gridlock on the contraflow system again.

I thought phase one was 75 hours out?

It is 50 hrs.....

http://www.lsp.org/pdf/Web_StateMap.pdf

[duris]

If Katrina decides to come here, we are screwed. Plain and simple. No way do you get everyone evacuated.

and the problem with that is... anyone not evacuated will drown.

Not everybody but too many. Even in the worst case scenario, my house is supposed to only have a couple feet of water. The problem for me would be the complications thereafter with standing water, animals, no power, etc. So not much reason not to evacuate anyway.

On the bright side, maybe Bourbon Street would be clean? All things being equal, I'll take it like it is though.