EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
220 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005
VALID 12Z MON AUG 29 2005 - 12Z FRI SEP 02 2005
D+8 TO 11 MEANS OF THE GFS HOLD ON TO CONSISTENT PATTERN OF A WRN
TROF ALONG 125W...RIDGING THRU THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
MEAN TROF IN THE EAST BETWEEN 75 AND 80W. THE ERN TROF EXTENDS S
INTO FL AND WILL PROVIDE PROTECTION FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR
ANY POTENTIAL NEW TROPICAL SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO.
ECMWF MEANS DIFFER BY HAVING A MORE WWD EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL
AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGING AND HAVING THEIR ERN TROF AXIS MORE
WWD INTO THE GLF MEX. THIS WOULD ALLOW ANY POTENTIAL NEW ATLC
SYSTEMS TO TRACK FARTHER WWD AT LOW LATITUDES INTO THE CARRIBAEN
AND GLFMEX.
...HURCN KATRINA...
HPC SFC PROGS FOLLOW THE TPC 12Z/15Z ADVISORY PACKAGE TAKING HURCN
IN FL PANHANDLE THEN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF APPLcHNS FINALLY INTO
GLFME AND NOVA SCOTIA BY DAY 7 FRI. SEE TPC
ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS/ WARNINGS. OVERALL WESTWARD TREND OF MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PACKAGE INCLUDING LASTEST 12Z MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE. GOOD CONSENSUS OF KATRINA COMING IN MUCH MORE WESTWARD
ALONG THE MIDDLE GLFMEX COAST BETWEEN 88W-90W WITH GOOD CLUSTERING
OF GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/NOGAPS/UKMET/GHM/ECMWF. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE
KATRINA WEST OF THE APPCHNS. HPC POPS AND TEMPS GRADUALLY ADJUSTED
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. HPC SFC PROGS LOCKED TO TPC GUIDANCE FOR TDAS
PACKAGE.
