Invest 90L=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

[Brent]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050826 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050826 1800 050827 0600 050827 1800 050828 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.0N 35.0W 10.3N 37.5W 10.7N 40.1W 11.1N 42.8W
BAMM 10.0N 35.0W 10.5N 36.9W 11.1N 38.9W 11.8N 41.0W
A98E 10.0N 35.0W 10.9N 36.9W 11.5N 39.2W 12.0N 41.7W
LBAR 10.0N 35.0W 10.7N 37.6W 11.4N 40.9W 11.9N 44.6W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050828 1800 050829 1800 050830 1800 050831 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 45.6W 12.2N 51.6W 13.1N 57.7W 14.4N 63.5W
BAMM 12.7N 43.5W 14.6N 49.3W 17.2N 55.2W 20.0N 59.7W
A98E 12.7N 44.4W 14.5N 50.2W 16.0N 56.2W 17.0N 61.7W
LBAR 12.4N 48.8W 13.1N 56.6W 13.1N 61.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 28KTS 31KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 28KTS 31KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 35.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 33.3W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 8.1N LONM24 = 31.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[cycloneye]

Aparently the BAM models dont go fish with this one.Well then all our friends in the islands will have to watch it.

[WindRunner]

Wow, that didn't take long. I guess the mention in the TWO signaled an invest by the way they were talking about it.

[cycloneye]

Wow, that didn't take long. I guess the mention in the TWO signaled an invest by the way they were talking about it.

It's organizing steadly but still is a broad low pressure.

[cycloneye]

[wxcrazytwo]

I don't like the smell of this..

[cjrciadt]

That looks encourging Lee or Maria if it holds up.

[Shoshana]

I feel really stupid asking... but I will anyway (someone else shyer than me might be confused too!)

Why is this 90L? I do know the naming convention ... but the last invest I saw was 97L .... 98L and 99L are ???

I tried searching here but the search function is off... I went back to 8 pages and still saw Katrina talk (we are chatty aren't we!)


Was 99L Katrina? If so, what was 98L? Is TD 10/12/Jose involved somehow too?

I am SO confused!!! (and that's not counting the possibility that EPAC Irwin is somehow related to the remnants of Jose!)

Is there anywhere that keeps track of these things on simple English?

'shana

[Brent]

I feel really stupid asking... but I will anyway (someone else shyer than me might be confused too!)

Why is this 90L? I do know the naming convention ... but the last invest I saw was 97L .... 98L and 99L are ???

I tried searching here but the search function is off... I went back to 8 pages and still saw Katrina talk (we are chatty aren't we!)


Was 99L Katrina? If so, what was 98L? Is TD 10/12/Jose involved somehow too?

I am SO confused!!! (and that's not counting the possibility that EPAC Irwin is somehow related to the remnants of Jose!)

Is there anywhere that keeps track of these things on simple English?

'shana

OK... let's try to get through this.

97L is in the Central Atlantic
98L? is Katrina
99L was Jose

(I may have 98 and 99L backwards).

[Shoshana]

^ Thank you.

It really is kinda confusing this year - guess cause they're overlapping timewise... and not going from Invest to TD to TS status in proper order!

[x-y-no]

Yes ... as I said in the the EATS thread, I think this one may be an EC threat down the road. The globals lose it, but I don't believe it ... and while it'll make a NW move in the 3-5 day range because of the trough, after that I'm pretty confident in the ridge building back strong and steering it west again. Whether that's north of the islands or through the leewrds, I can't judge yet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It doe's not hardly look anything near as organized as 97L.

[x-y-no]

It doe's not hardly look anything near as organized as 97L.

That's true ... but I think that'll have changed in two to three days.

We'll see.

[caribepr]

Ok, that's it. I'm going to hit the hammock with a good read, a good cocktail and hopefully go to sleep for about three days.

Which, of course, I won't - but right now it seems like a brilliant idea.

[BensonTCwatcher]

It doe's not hardly look anything near as organized as 97L.

That's true ... but I think that'll have changed in two to three days.

We'll see.

Oh how true. Katrina was "not even a wave" a few days ago. The pattern for development now has a Early sept look to it now.

[Swimdude]

97L is the Atlantic.
98L was Jose.
99L is Katrina.
Thus, we have 90L.

This one seems promising... An Emily-like track.

[Shoshana]

97L is the Atlantic.
98L was Jose.
99L is Katrina.
Thus, we have 90L.

This one seems promising... An Emily-like track.

Thank you... very much. My head's spinning ... and not just from the new meds!

Emily track's a bad thing for Mexico - They're still digging out from Jose 80,000 people were forced out of their homes in Mexico - they're saying on the news here that there was 500 million dollars in damage.

[krysof]

97L looks very well organized, but the NHC just keeps refusing to issue advisories on it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

97L needs to have Advisories in the name LEE!!!

[krysof]

If they keep ignoring it, it may just blow up into a hurricane. Poor 97L has always been ignored. 90L won't get much attention either for now.