NWS Birmingham AL: "Significant West Shift" in NHC

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jkt21787
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NWS Birmingham AL: "Significant West Shift" in NHC

#1 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:08 pm

ITS A WAITING GAME AFTER SATURDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF KATRINA. AFTER SOME INSIDE INFO FROM HPC...ELECTED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT UPDATES IN ORDER TO BETTER INCORPORATE
THE UPCOMING UPDATE. A "SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD" SHIFT IN EXPECTED.
NEVERTHELESS...DID BUMP POPS UP AND RE-ARRANGED WEATHER WORDING
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BETTER HANDEL THIS EVENT. NUMEROUS ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED
OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS BE GET A BETTER IDEA ON KATRINA`S
IMPACT.
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#2 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:15 pm

Well...the conference call was...I'm sure...very enlightening. As most of you know..the NHC usually holds a conference call at about 3pm to let NWS offices know what they are going to do with the track. Sounds like they are going a lot further west than AL/FL state line...which is where I thought they would take it until the next set of models came out.
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#3 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:17 pm

guess we will see. It may wind up in mexico if the wsw movement continues :lol:
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#4 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:27 pm

James Spann, met at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham says NHC will have a landfall at Biloxi!!! That is a MASSIVE shift.
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#5 Postby gulfcoastdave » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:32 pm

just remember.........we are still 48-72 hrs out.

models will shift again and again
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#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:34 pm

If this moves to much more to the west. In the fact that this might bomb into quite a powerful hurricane. Tells me that new orleans might be running out of time. That would be the worst case.
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#7 Postby mvtrucking » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:35 pm

Just a gut feeling nothing more. Mouth of the mississippi.
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#8 Postby Mattie » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:36 pm

Although yes, 48-72 days out, the NHC has been dead on this season for the other storms. Since they are just now shifting their landfall prediction so drastically "at this late hour" (for them anyway), it does tend to make you VERY skeptical. Can't wait for too many more flip flops IMHO.
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#9 Postby TPACane04 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:37 pm

CROW..it's what for dinner. :wink: I was "allegedly" sure of a FL Panhandle hit...but NOLA/Biloxi may get this mess...

I will stick with sub-930mb for North GOM per previous post...not sure I want to be anywhere near the Beau Rivage on Sunday or Monday!
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#10 Postby smashmode » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:39 pm

Even now the main news is saying a florida panhandle..

when does the next NHC come out?

How far is biloxi from NOLA?
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Distance to N.O. from Biloxi

#11 Postby Biloxi » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:42 pm

Biloxi to NO is approx. 60 to 70 miles
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#12 Postby Javlin » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:43 pm

Driving it takes me about 1hr to 1:15 hr to get to the Dome.
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Re: Distance to N.O. from Biloxi

#13 Postby smashmode » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:45 pm

Biloxi wrote:Biloxi to NO is approx. 60 to 70 miles


So one 'wobble' to the west...and Nola is in bad shape.

If NHC shifts to Biloxi..dont you HAVE to mand. evac NOLA?

You would think...but they didnt evac NOLA in the face of Lili..and that was BEARING down.
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#14 Postby Agua » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:45 pm

gulfcoastdave wrote:just remember.........we are still 48-72 hrs out.

models will shift again and again


Exactly
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#15 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:47 pm

5pm is out... and it looks like a disaster.

Image
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#16 Postby Mattie » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:48 pm

And - depending on the size of the storm that 60-70 miles between New Orleans and Biloxi can be like a continent away (Camille - no effects) or for a large storm - can be like the same city. I'm not sure on the stats of the size of Katrina, but depending on where in that "cone" - eastern border of Biloxi - vs. Pass Christian on down the beach west - will determine if New Orleans is affected.

We don't shut out eyes when we hear a Biloxi hit for sure - we are up and waiting with the best of them until we know for sure.
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#17 Postby smashmode » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:49 pm

Brent wrote:5pm is out... and it looks like a disaster.

Image


Looks like Mobile would be getting the bad side of katrina.
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#18 Postby yzerfan » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:50 pm

5 o'clock is up, and the line has indeed moved to MS.
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#19 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:50 pm

Mattie wrote:And - depending on the size of the storm that 60-70 miles between New Orleans and Biloxi can be like a continent away (Camille - no effects) or for a large storm - can be like the same city. I'm not sure on the stats of the size of Katrina, but depending on where in that "cone" - eastern border of Biloxi - vs. Pass Christian on down the beach west - will determine if New Orleans is affected.


New Orleans had 100 mph gusts on the Lakefront in Camille...
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#20 Postby shaggy » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:51 pm

another 100 miles west and it would really be a disaster a direct hit on NO is a worst case scenario and it could really devestate that area!
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