Hurricane Katrina

[ALhurricane]

My goodness... a borderline Cat 4 at landfall...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No 115 knots is a cat4.

[Brent]

and that, IMO, is conservative.

If there ever was a candidate for a Cat 5... I think this is it.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 262042
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 49 KNHC
2032 2500N 08309W 03078 5024 036 067 122 086 068 03101 0000000000
2032. 2501N 08310W 03296 0006 039 064 098 082 065 03350 0000000000
2033 2502N 08311W 03568 0037 039 061 074 074 062 03653 0000000000
2033. 2503N 08313W 03845 0065 040 063 050 050 063 03959 0000000000
2034 2504N 08314W 04139 0085 040 065 040 040 065 04281 0000000000
2034. 2506N 08316W 04376 0084 041 063 036 036 065 04543 0000000100
2035 2507N 08317W 04623 0112 038 062 022 014 064 04819 0000000000
2035. 2508N 08318W 04834 0144 041 064 020 005 066 05062 0000000000
2036 2509N 08320W 05125 0177 035 058 003 011 060 05387 0000000000
2036. 2511N 08321W 05342 0199 037 061 009 039 063 05626 0000000000
2037 2512N 08323W 05535 0221 038 064 011 065 064 05842 0000000000
2037. 2513N 08324W 05740 0242 038 063 027 077 064 06068 0000000000
2038 2514N 08326W 05855 0254 040 063 035 089 064 06197 0000000000
2038. 2516N 08327W 06064 0277 043 064 049 109 065 06430 0000000000
2039 2517N 08329W 06230 0292 044 064 065 115 065 06611 0000000000
2039. 2518N 08330W 06375 0303 043 062 077 121 063 06767 0000000000
2040 2520N 08332W 06578 0325 039 061 089 137 061 06993 0000000000
2040. 2521N 08333W 06725 0340 040 061 101 163 062 07156 0000000000
2041 2522N 08335W 06877 0354 045 064 109 169 065 07322 0000000000
2041. 2524N 08337W 07042 0370 048 062 117 165 065 07504 0000000000

[TPACane04]

We will look back on Katrina as the "storm of the season"...IMO.

Already a killer in SOFLA and the worst is yet to come for someone. What a season.

[StormsAhead]

URNT12 KNHC 262050
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/20:25:10Z
B. 24 deg 46 min N
082 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2810 m
D. 55 kt
E. 318 deg 270 nm
F. 040 deg 069 kt
G. 311 deg 014 nm
H. 965 mb
I. 11 C/ 3054 m
J. 17 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E04/22/10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 28
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:52:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20C, 313 / 12NM

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KNHC 262052
XXAA 76207 99248 70830 08143 99968 26001 31571 00787 ///// /////
92403 24200 33064 85147 21601 34546 70827 19057 01062 88999 77999
31313 09608 82026
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 31
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2477N08296W 2031 MBL WND 33070 AEV 20507 DLM W
ND 35051 968716 WL150 32576 080 =
XXBB 76208 99248 70830 08143 00968 26001 11850 21601 22793 19006
33770 20035 44720 18446 55703 20057 66697 18057
21212 00968 31571 11957 33079 22928 33067 33916 34052 44893 33545
55850 34546 66721 01551 77697 01064
31313 09608 82026
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 31
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2477N08296W 2031 MBL WND 33070 AEV 20507 DLM W
ND 35051 968716 WL150 32576 080 =

71 knots at the surface...

[StormsAhead]

Observation #: 30
Time: 20:31Z
Position: 25.0N 83.1W
Flight altitude: 3040 meters
Flight-level wind: NE (40°) 68 knots
Temperature/Dew Point: 13C/8C
Weather: Rain
700mb Height: 2997 meters

URNT11 KNHC 262051
97779 20314 60250 83100 30400 04068 13088 /3977
40365
RMK AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 30

[StormsAhead]

A little out of order here...but 29 was the 965mb dropsonde.

UZNT13 KNHC 262051
XXAA 76207 99248 70828 08142 99965 27411 21506 00820 ///// /////
92374 24804 26002 85117 21611 27508 70797 17250 27006 88999 77999
31313 09608 82023
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 29
62626 EYE SPL 2476N08282W 2027 MBL WND 22004 AEV 20507 DLM WND 25
507 965709 WL150 21506 075 =
XXBB 76208 99248 70828 08142 00965 27411 11850 21611 22703 18250
33696 16048
21212 00965 21506 11878 20501 22850 27508 33835 24510 44795 30010
55761 25017 66737 23515 77696 26506
31313 09608 82023
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 29
62626 EYE SPL 2476N08282W 2027 MBL WND 22004 AEV 20507 DLM WND 25
507 965709 WL150 21506 075 =

[Stratosphere747]

The east to west flow is not as pronounced as yesterday, but it is still there. You can also see that it is still being pushed just a shade south by the flow from the east coast. IMO it will still at the least go west for a little while.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... &type=mbir

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 262052
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 50 KNHC
2042 2525N 08338W 07147 0382 051 059 123 167 060 07621 0000000000
2042. 2527N 08340W 07259 0393 054 059 131 179 059 07745 0000000000
2043 2528N 08342W 07319 0401 052 062 141 201 063 07812 0000000000
2043. 2530N 08343W 07323 0405 052 063 149 205 063 07821 0000000000
2044 2531N 08345W 07319 0410 050 061 151 203 062 07822 0000000000
2044. 2533N 08347W 07317 0414 052 060 149 201 060 07824 0000000000
2045 2535N 08349W 07318 0419 053 057 149 221 059 07831 0000000000
2045. 2537N 08351W 07317 0424 052 054 145 229 055 07833 0000000000
2046 2538N 08354W 07314 0426 054 055 145 227 056 07832 0000000100
2046. 2540N 08356W 07314 0427 053 054 145 207 055 07834 0000000100
2047 2542N 08358W 07316 0429 054 053 143 231 054 07838 0000000000
2047. 2544N 08400W 07315 0432 055 053 143 241 053 07839 0000000000
2048 2546N 08402W 07315 0434 056 052 145 247 053 07842 0000000000
2048. 2548N 08404W 07316 0437 055 050 145 225 050 07845 0000000000
2049 2549N 08407W 07315 0439 054 048 145 229 049 07847 0000000000
2049. 2551N 08409W 07315 0442 052 047 147 217 048 07850 0000000000
2050 2553N 08411W 07316 0442 052 042 151 197 043 07851 0000000000
2050. 2555N 08413W 07316 0442 055 044 153 245 045 07851 0000000000
2051 2557N 08415W 07315 0443 059 043 149 237 044 07851 0000000000
2051. 2559N 08417W 07313 0443 055 043 149 315 043 07848 0000000000

[Brent]

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

MOST RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 965 MB...BUT THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO 94 KT AT 700 MB...WHICH
IS ABOUT AN 85-KT SURFACE WIND. A 1701Z DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT REPORTED 85 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE SUPPORTS ABOUT 95-KT SURFACE WINDS. THE EYEWALL IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAS REMAINED OPEN...PROBABLY DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND THIS MAY PARTLY EXPLAIN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE OBSERVED WINDS AND WHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TYPICALLY
SUPPORTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...OR 255 DEGRESS...AT 07
KT. KATRINA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE
WEST SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KATRINA. BOTH THE RIDGE
AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
...WHICH ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...AND MOST OF
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THAT SCENARIO. AFTER 24 HOURS...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO GRADUALLY DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ERODE THE RIDGE...WHICH ALLOWS KATRINA TO MOVE NORTHWARD BY 72
HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD
AND ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK BEING SHIFTED ABOUT 150 NMI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...
PROJECTED LANDFALL IS STILL ABOUT 72 HOURS AWAY...SO FURTHER
MODIFICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TRACK ARE POSSIBLE.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE GULF LOOP CURRENT AFTER 36
HOURS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD
ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL
OCCURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH
BRING KATRINA UP TO 118 KT. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL IS MORE
ROBUST AND BRINGS KATRINA UP TO 129 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 24.8N 82.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 24.9N 83.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 25.2N 85.1W 95 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 25.8N 86.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 26.9N 87.7W 105 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 30.0N 88.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 35.0N 86.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 31/1800Z 40.5N 79.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 262102
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 51 KNHC
2052 2600N 08420W 07318 0445 052 041 151 295 042 07855 0000000000
2052. 2602N 08422W 07312 0447 053 041 151 301 041 07852 0000000000
2053 2604N 08424W 07318 0449 053 040 151 295 040 07860 0000000000
2053. 2606N 08426W 07314 0448 053 039 151 257 039 07854 0000000000
2054 2608N 08428W 07317 0450 052 038 151 241 039 07859 0000000000
2054. 2609N 08430W 07313 0449 052 037 149 243 037 07854 0000000000
2055 2611N 08433W 07318 0451 054 039 151 237 039 07862 0000000000
2055. 2613N 08435W 07315 0453 050 038 151 241 039 07860 0000000000
2056 2615N 08437W 07313 0453 050 038 151 247 039 07858 0000000000
2056. 2617N 08439W 07317 0452 051 039 151 275 039 07861 0000000000
2057 2619N 08441W 07316 0452 050 039 151 257 039 07860 0000000000
2057. 2620N 08443W 07313 0451 051 035 147 283 036 07857 0000000000
2058 2622N 08445W 07317 0454 053 035 149 265 036 07864 0000000100
2058. 2624N 08448W 07313 0454 052 034 147 261 034 07859 0000000100
2059 2626N 08450W 07319 0455 053 034 147 259 035 07866 0000000000
2059. 2628N 08452W 07317 0457 053 033 147 265 034 07867 0000000000
2100 2629N 08454W 07317 0459 051 033 145 253 034 07868 0000000000
2100. 2631N 08456W 07315 0460 052 031 145 183 032 07867 0000000100
2101 2633N 08459W 07315 0461 053 033 145 145 033 07868 0000000100
2101. 2635N 08501W 07316 0461 055 033 147 147 034 07869 0000000100

[StormsAhead]

Observation #: 32
Time: 21:02Z
Position: 26.7N 85.1W
Flight altitude: 7310 meters
Flight-level wind: NE (50°) 31 knots
Temperature/Dew Point: -15C/-21C
Weather: Broken Clouds
400mb Height: 7640 meters
LAST REPORT

URNT11 KNHC 262110
97779 21024 60267 85100 73100 05031 65712 /5764
RMK AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 32
LAST REPORT

That's all for this mission...the next one, besides the current NOAA synoptic mission, will take off at 11 PM EDT and have its first fix around 2 AM EDT.

[MyGulfParadise]

Looks like she's start to move WNW now in the last loop.

[wxman57]

Just thought y'all would want to see a nice McIdas picture of Katrina opening her eye:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrina33.gif

[Sanibel]

Dry Tortugas took south core bands.


I was wondering when a 100mph 965 was going to open its eye. A lot of late bloomers lately...

[Sanibel]

Eyewall bands are "rip curling" into center


intensification

[webke]

Just thought y'all would want to see a nice McIdas picture of Katrina opening her eye:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrina33.gif

That shot is awesome thanks for the sharing it with us.

[canegrl04]

Lord have mercy if she strikes NO as a cat 4 or 5