Models Getting Tighter

[Mattie]

AFM, I've been reading the posts all morning, but either missed your postings, or you haven't yet. What is your current thinking?

[jkt21787]

BTW I earlier stated "I think the models are on the right track but perhaps a bit further west".

This could have been misleading, and was a typo. Should have said "a bit too west" My following statement indicated I believe in MS/AL at this time, so hopefully that prevented any confusion.

Just stating so I'm clear. Not suggesting Katrina will go west of the current models.

[skywarn]

Looking at most recent Radar out of Key West (EYW), looks like the motion has slowed down a bit. Anyone else see this?

It looks like it has now stalled by the looks of the Key West radar.

[bfez1]

If the next runs come in similar are even closer clustered new New Orleans I'm gonna start getting very worried. I had almost written off Katrina 24 hours ago as a Louisiana threat and now this...

I came to work this morning feeling very confident about this storm not hitting LA. Now I am not so sure. Boy, things sure can change fast around here. The office is abuzz talking about Katrina and the current models.

[cjrciadt]

Looking at most recent Radar out of Key West (EYW), looks like the motion has slowed down a bit. Anyone else see this?

It looks like it has now stalled by the looks of the Key West radar.

Still moving very slow, less than 5mph

[m_ru]

hmm I'm getting worried about all my family in Mississippi. *bites nails* I've decided to stay put in Texas since it could be a CAT. 4 at landfall.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, I've been reading the posts all morning, but either missed your postings, or you haven't yet. What is your current thinking?

Intensity...I'm worried. As most here know...I am not an alarmist...but the pattern I see setting up is ripe for one dangerous storm. Cat 4 at landfall is my guess....and I am really concerned for whoever will get this. Especially if the track is further west towards NOLA. There is a large area of extremely high heat content off the coast there...and that will cause a big boom if she goes over it. She could do what Opal did...because that's what caused her deepening...going over a hot pocket.

Track...I wish I knew. I had been thinking b/w Pensacola and Panama City area...but with the flip in ALL the models to the west...even the GFS which had been too far east most of the time...I am thinking MS area eastward to P'Cola.

Bottom line is this is now about timing. How far west does she get before the ridge erodes...and to be honest...nobody knows the answer to that question. NOLA is not out of the woods...the only saving grace is that she would be coming from the south and not the southeast.

[Mattie]

Thanks for the insight - I like hearing what you have to say.

[Air Force Met]

Now the models are clustered:




Wow.

[jkt21787]

Look where NHC is!!!

[kevin]

Well the new model cluster is definetely not good. I just got a bad feeling.

[m_ru]

oh crap.

[jax]

RUN AWAY ! ! !
[/b]

[shaggy]

maybe the GFDL should be considered a little harder since it nailed the SW movement over S florida yesterday but they have seemed to continue shifting west and with the SW motion its still possible the GFDL is right

[Ixolib]

As in SERIOUS WOW!! How much credence can we put into this graphic?

[dhweather]

Though NHC is an east outlier, they will have to shift west at 5 because of the overwhelming model support.

However, I do not believe NHC will shift significantly west. They will probably indicate a AL/FL border region landfall give or take a few miles. They won't shift to MS and certainly not to LA though model guidance strongly favors this at this time. So they will still be a good bit east of guidance more than likely.

NHC will not jump on a major shift on the models so quickly, in case it changes back. If the trend continues at 00z with this guidance showing similar scenarios, then more significant shifts are likely late tonight or earl tomorrow.

IMO, I think the models are on the right track but perhaps a bit further west. MS and AL would be my most targeted zone at this time.

Correct. They will not shift it west of AL/FL state line...IMO. They will ease it over about 60-90 miles at a time until they are happy with it. So...if models continue to show SELA/MS area...expect to see the NHC match it by 5am tomorrow morning.

I am in full concurance with you on this - they will not shift over more than
60 miles or so in one advisory unless something DRAMATIC happens.

[jkt21787]

Though NHC is an east outlier, they will have to shift west at 5 because of the overwhelming model support.

However, I do not believe NHC will shift significantly west. They will probably indicate a AL/FL border region landfall give or take a few miles. They won't shift to MS and certainly not to LA though model guidance strongly favors this at this time. So they will still be a good bit east of guidance more than likely.

NHC will not jump on a major shift on the models so quickly, in case it changes back. If the trend continues at 00z with this guidance showing similar scenarios, then more significant shifts are likely late tonight or earl tomorrow.

IMO, I think the models are on the right track but perhaps a bit further west. MS and AL would be my most targeted zone at this time.

Correct. They will not shift it west of AL/FL state line...IMO. They will ease it over about 60-90 miles at a time until they are happy with it. So...if models continue to show SELA/MS area...expect to see the NHC match it by 5am tomorrow morning.

I am in full concurance with you on this - they will not shift over more than
60 miles or so in one advisory unless something DRAMATIC happens.

NWS Birmingham AL is saying a "significant westward" shift is expected in the NHC track.

[Ixolib]

As in SERIOUS WOW!! How much credence can we put into this graphic?

[Brent]

They just shifted 200 miles to the west... from Panama City to Pascagoula.