NWS Key West Long Range Radar Just Corrected

[jkt21787]

There is no "northerly turn". That is extremely misleading. The radar is deceiving as we've heard, especially when RECON is in the storm and still shows W to WSW motion. With the NW eyewall battling dry air, it is further enhancing the deception of the radar suggesting a more NW motion though its not occurring.

[Stormcenter]

Although it may be curving more westward...it appears that the 'nw wobble' is just an illusion caused by that dry slot in the nw eyewall.

Thank you Doctor.

[tim_in_ga]

Kinda looks like a new eyewall, or maybe that's just dry air. But the IR loop with the forecast points overlaid seems to indicate a movement above the forecast track.

[Sanibel]

If it is an intensification wobble WATCH OUT!

[Stratosphere747]

You might want to confirm this movement before having a topic named as such. It is quite deceptive.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The eyewall is starting to build around the eye. You can see the yellows/red wraping around. Once that happens watch for a fast deeping with a eye developing on visible/Ir. I expect a cat4 with in 36 hours.

[dwg71]

It's still moving westward. Look at the entire structure of the storm as it shifts westward.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

Well it was moving WSW, and its at least moving west now. NHC had it gaing only .1N in the next twelve hours, and only .3N in the next day. So it wont be hard to get north of thier points with a WNW or even NW jog.

[hicksta]

Although it may be curving more westward...it appears that the 'nw wobble' is just an illusion caused by that dry slot in the nw eyewall.

Thank you Doctor.

[MBismyPlayground]

Hubbie and I both looked, after not looking at any radar all day long.
Looks a bit west with a wobble to the north. But then again, what do I know?? Time will surely tell. This baby could surprise us all.

[raynpa]

look at the sat. pictures..system has been moving wsw all day.

[Javlin]

The GFDL shows a Northly turn about now on the latest model that goes for alittle while with a bend back to the W.

[jkt21787]

Title of the thread needs to be changed. There is no confirmation of this turn and its a wobble at the most. Extremely misleading title.

[MBismyPlayground]

Look, I am not really good at this but... After reading the latest recon report observation and such and comparing it to the previous one....... I don't see a thing about South movement. Am I understanding this wrong or plotting it out wrong???
Observation #: 30
Time: 20:31Z
Position: 25.0N 83.1W

Observation #: 32
Time: 21:02Z
Position: 26.7N 85.1W

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=140

[jkt21787]

Look, I am not really good at this but... After reading the latest recon report observation and such and comparing it to the previous one....... I don't see a thing about South movement. Am I understanding this wrong or plotting it out wrong???
Observation #: 30
Time: 20:31Z
Position: 25.0N 83.1W

Observation #: 32
Time: 21:02Z
Position: 26.7N 85.1W

[/url]http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71478&start=140

That is where the plane is, not the center of the storm.

[hicksta]

Thats where the plane was...

[loon]

OB's are taken as they are flying around the storm, those cord's are where the plane is at, not the center, I believe anyway. Vortex's show the actual center, compare those for sure movement.

cheers,
loon

[dwg71]

Look, I am not really good at this but... After reading the latest recon report observation and such and comparing it to the previous one....... I don't see a thing about South movement. Am I understanding this wrong or plotting it out wrong???
Observation #: 30
Time: 20:31Z
Position: 25.0N 83.1W

Observation #: 32
Time: 21:02Z
Position: 26.7N 85.1W

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=140

THose are just the location of the observations.

[Sanibel]

NOPE.


Ridge still has it about 264*


The flux N was probably an intensification jerk. The eye is slightly contracting.


Lock the thread.

[rtd2]

You might want to confirm this movement before having a topic named as such. It is quite deceptive.

AGREED!

[sponger]

Why lock it? I think he made an observation that I saw as wll. When Charley began a hook right, 90% called it a wobble. Is it making a bee line to Cedar Key, no but lets watch and see what develops.