Hurricane Katrina

[Thunder44]

Expect this track to shift west tonight. The GFS takes towards New Orleans and Avila is on duty tonight.

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!

[LAwxrgal]

That storm looks classic and symmetrical. Still a little dry air on the NW side but a nice round CDO and the eye is beginning to open up.

[Stratosphere747]

Expect this track to shift west tonight. The GFS takes towards New Orleans and Avila is on duty tonight.

You know Avila takes a lot of flack from people. But remember he is the one that openly said to not discount the GFDL and its WSW motion. I used to think myself he was not even close to Stewert when it came to discussions, but have dramatically changed my view on him.

[mvtrucking]

Expect this track to shift west tonight. The GFS takes towards New Orleans and Avila is on duty tonight.

Does he like the GFS or something?

[SouthFloridawx]

100 MPH seems low... what were the recon reports.... i just got in?

[Thunder44]

Expect this track to shift west tonight. The GFS takes towards New Orleans and Avila is on duty tonight.

You know Avila takes a lot of flack from people. But remember he is the one that openly said to not discount the GFDL and its WSW motion. I used to think myself he was not even close to Stewert when it came to discussions, but have dramatically changed my view on him.

He just said that because he thought the GFDL was "oustanding". He didn't present any meteorological reason for why we should believe that model. Even he said it was "unrealstic".

[Steve Cosby]

Expect this track to shift west tonight. The GFS takes towards New Orleans and Avila is on duty tonight.

Where do you find out who is on duty tonight?

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY LARGO SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST AND
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR... HURRICANE
TODAY AND ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE ARE STILL OCCURRING
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 83.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Thunder44]

Expect this track to shift west tonight. The GFS takes towards New Orleans and Avila is on duty tonight.

Where do you find out who is on duty tonight?

He wrote the 5:30 TWO and he just wrote the 8pm advisory.

[Steve Cosby]

He wrote the 5:30 TWO and he just wrote the 8pm advisory.

And, the 8PM was posted here just before you said that.

I thought I had read that they frequently have two on duty on big events anyway.

Still, good call.

[senorpepr]

I thought I had read that they frequently have two on duty on big events anyway.

Well, technically this isn't a "big event." Don't get me wrong, I'm not discounting Katrina at all... I'm just saying at this specific moment it isn't a big event. I'm sure come Monday the office will be full as Katrina makes landfall -- that will be the "big event."

[M_0331]

BUMP

[SouthFloridawx]

she's losing her tail ... she's getting stronger.....

[Stormcenter]

It's hard to believe how far south she has traveled.

[AussieMark]

Look at her on Water Vapour

[canegrl04]

Katrina will become one of those canes to remember.And an early retirement

[mtm4319]

Is there any indication that intensity will be raised as of the 11pm advisory?

[HouTXmetro]

It's hard to believe how far south she has traveled.

Call me crazy but based on satellite presentation she has taken a HUGE jog to the SW-SSW.

Am I crazy?

[Brent]

Is there any indication that intensity will be raised as of the 11pm advisory?

I'll be able to tell you as soon as the advisory comes out...