Possibly Texas

[raynpa]

It appears that the ridge over Arkansas is holding Katrina on her westward motion, and that could allow it to continue towards Texas. Any comments are welcome.

[hicksta]

It is holding it. But it is forcasted to move W we will have to see.

[cajungal]

I don't see it moving all the way to Texas. Louisiana, maybe.

[mvtrucking]

This storm could go anywhere, Texas included. Until it starts moving NW or N everyone should watch closely.

[Cape Verde]

It would have to defy the laws of physics to do it. New Orleans is probably the furthest west Katrina could hit.

[raynpa]

It would have to defy the laws of physics to do it. New Orleans is probably the furthest west Katrina could hit.

Please explain your thoughts....It is very possible that this system never makes a turn north at all

[Cape Verde]

My thoughts are that the high that kept Katrina from going up Florida's east coast has been building back to the west over Texas, and there's no plausible scenario where it moves further west than that.

Katrina will move up the eastern edge of that high following the path of least resistance. The only other alternative would be to possibly stay to the south of the high and plow into Central America, but once it starts turning to the nnw, she's committed to a northern gulf landfall. I don't know where that will be, but it's well east of Texas.

[Scorpion]

Sorry folks this is not going to Texas. It gets debated every time there is a big gulf storm. When was the last time a major hit the upper Texas coast?

[raynpa]

Local mets here in Port Arthur are becoming more concerned.

[deltadog03]

hey, i don't think its coming to TX either...but, the same can be said about nola...don't assume ANYTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[The Expert]

hey, i don't think its coming to TX either...but, the same can be said about nola...don't assume ANYTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Exactly, that's why it's not hitting Texas OR New Orleans.

[AussieMark]

Sorry folks this is not going to Texas. It gets debated every time there is a big gulf storm. When was the last time a major hit the upper Texas coast?

The upper texas coast has seen just 2-3 majors in the last 48 years.

the last one was 22 years ago

[HouTXmetro]

Sorry folks this is not going to Texas. It gets debated every time there is a big gulf storm. When was the last time a major hit the upper Texas coast?

The upper texas coast has seen just 2-3 majors in the last 48 years.

the last one was 22 years ago

Yeah, the big ones don't bother us.

[deltadog03]

well that dosn't mean...oh, lets throw those cities or areas out for ever...cuz, it never happens...sheesh

[Shoshana]

Sorry folks this is not going to Texas. It gets debated every time there is a big gulf storm. When was the last time a major hit the upper Texas coast?

1983 Alicia (Cat. 3 Hurricane - August 18th landfall)
1961 Carla (Cat. 4 Hurricane - September 11th landfall)
sideswipe from
1957 Audrey (Cat. 4 Hurricane - June 27th landfall)

interesting note from NWS Houston/ Galveston about Audrey:

Audrey was one of the strongest and deadliest of June hurricanes. The storm made landfall near Cameron, LA with 100 mph winds and severe coastal flooding. Over 500 persons lost their lives. Audrey is noteworthy because residents along the LA coast had plenty of warning, and still 500 died. The area had not suffered a severe hurricane since 1918 and their false sense of security along with the residents' prior experience of needlessly evacuating for storms that caused little damage, prompted many to ignore the warnings. A publication by Texas A&M in 1975 suggests that the majority of persons who drowned in Audrey had climbed trees to escape rising waters were bitten by snakes also taking refuge there, then fell into the water

1949 HURRICANE (Cat. 4 - October 4th landfall)

1945 HURRICANE (Cat. 4* - August 27th landfall)
* - Hurrtrak data indicated a Category 4 status; NHC/TPC documents had peak at a Category 2.

1932 HURRICANE (Cat. 4 - August 14th landfall)

1915 HURRICANE (Cat. 3 - August 17th landfall)

1909 HURRICANE (Cat. 3 - July 21st landfall)

1900 HURRICANE (Cat. 4 - September 9th landfall)

From NWS Houston/ Galveston

[Scorpion]

Alicia wasn't a major at landfall. It also formed in the GOM. So the last big hit from a CV cane was in 61.

[Galvestongirl]

Alicia wasn't a major at landfall. It also formed in the GOM. So the last big hit from a CV cane was in 61.

Where are you getting your information. I lived through this storm, near the bayou, I was always under the impression that it WAS a major.

[Shoshana]

Alicia wasn't a major at landfall. It also formed in the GOM. So the last big hit from a CV cane was in 61.

The question wasn't "last big hit from a cv cane" it was "When was the last time a major hit the upper Texas coast?"

[raynpa]

Models will shift west and be centered over southwest La. by tommorow night.

[raynpa]

Models will shift west and be centered over southwest La. by tommorow night.