SE Coast

[nequad]

I know Katrina is the big game right now...and rightfully so. We can only hope that she will not be as strong as advertised when she makes landfall again.

Away from her for just a minute if we can. I've noticed a trend in some of the models(namely the GFS, GGEM, and to a lesser extent the NGP and NAM) have been developing a weak low off the SE coast. Tonight we have a small complex of storms off the GA/SC coast...and upon further inspection I see some rather low pressure readings in the offshore bouys off the SC/GA coast.

The water is plenty warm...and upper level conditions should be okay for development over the next few days. All of these factors combined with high pressure to the NE of this potential distubance leads me to believe we just might see something tropical form here in the next couple of days.

Perhaps not...but we will see.

[JtSmarts]

I noticed that area earlier, but didn't think much of it. We shall see what may happen.

[greeng13]

i noticed that as well. no idea what it is but i think some of the models even show that low if i am seeing the maps correctly. but they don't seem to show intensification.

anyone else have any comments?

i barely know an ULL from a LowerLL (LLL?)

[nequad]

It's not an upper low. There is an inverted surface trough in this area...probably the northern remains of the tropical wave that spawned Katrina.

The NWS discussions that I have read today all tend to right off the GFS because it commonly suffers from convective feedback. And that may be the case for the GFS. However...the Canadian(GGEM) model has shown this system for many days now, and so has the NGP.

It makes no difference to me if the globals deepen it further or not...that really is not important because once a low forms in the tropics and conditions are right...anything can happen, and often times the models can only show us part of the picture...not the whole.

We just need to monitor it, and if the convectioin persists overnight, I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC mention it in the TWO in the morning.

[greeng13]

It's not an upper low. There is an inverted surface trough in this area...probably the northern remains of the tropical wave that spawned Katrina.

The NWS discussions that I have read today all tend to right off the GFS because it commonly suffers from convective feedback. And that may be the case for the GFS. However...the Canadian(GGEM) model has shown this system for many days now, and so has the NGP.

It makes no difference to me if the globals deepen it further or not...that really is not important because once a low forms in the tropics and conditions are right...anything can happen, and often times the models can only show us part of the picture...not the whole.

We just need to monitor it, and if the convectioin persists overnight, I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC mention it in the TWO in the morning.

10-4 like i said i am the last person to try to predict these things i just remembered seeing it on one of the model posts regarding katrina. looks like i won't be fishing tomorrow though

[spinfan4eva]

Looks almost like a feederband off Katrina on satellite and radar going through north Fla into Kat

[hurricanedude]

JB is all over this in his daily discussion..mentions it could develop..."home Brew" style and threaten the upper Mid Atlantic as a foremiddable cyclone

[greeng13]

Looks almost like a feederband off Katrina on satellite and radar going through north Fla into Kat

i thought that also but it was "developing" earlier today and not really moving with katrina (or so it seemed to me). kind of almost stationary if you will.

like i said before though no one listen to me.

[hurricanedude]

hell bro..Ive been a member for years...no one has ever listened to me..LOL

[storms in NC]

It's not an upper low. There is an inverted surface trough in this area...probably the northern remains of the tropical wave that spawned Katrina.

The NWS discussions that I have read today all tend to right off the GFS because it commonly suffers from convective feedback. And that may be the case for the GFS. However...the Canadian(GGEM) model has shown this system for many days now, and so has the NGP.

It makes no difference to me if the globals deepen it further or not...that really is not important because once a low forms in the tropics and conditions are right...anything can happen, and often times the models can only show us part of the picture...not the whole.

We just need to monitor it, and if the convectioin persists overnight, I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC mention it in the TWO in the morning.

10-4 like i said i am the last person to try to predict these things i just remembered seeing it on one of the model posts regarding katrina. looks like i won't be fishing tomorrow though

I am going fishing sat I go every week-end. But as far as it turning out to be something I don't know but I think not. Just my 2 cents

[greeng13]

hell bro..Ive been a member for years...no one has ever listened to me..LOL

LOL...i had to put in my DISCLAIMER. that and i really don't know crap except that i grew up in tampa bay sailing every weekend (and teaching sailing there)

[greeng13]

storms in NC...

i think the last forecast here said offshore waves 4-5 feet? (i'd have to look it up again) and on my 17 1/2' Center Console that would be a rough ride out of the Charleston jetties