What is the worst case hit for New Orleans?

[logybogy]

I always get confused by this. Usually, you would think it is if it hits toward the west of the city cause the east side of the storm is usually stronger...

But I recall reading somewhere that because of the way the lakes and rivers are in New Orleans, the storm hitting slightly east toward the mouth of the Mississippi would actaully flood New Orleans worse.

[jasons2k]

Long thread on this a few days back. No I'm not being a thread cop - I'm just saying if you look for it it has lots of info.

[skysummit]

If it hit JUST east of NOLA, the Lake would overflow into the city. The worst case would be just west of the city because that would fill up all the marshes and bays, push water up the river and push water against the Miss. coast. That high water along the Miss coast would also push into Lake Borgne and also Lake Ponchartrain flooding the city from all directions.

[mtm4319]

What I usually hear is that a hit from a storm that's moving WNW would be the worst-case (think Elena if it were about 50 miles farther south).

Here's a very good overview of what could result from a category-3 hit on New Orleans with a storm moving NNW to NW (and more importantly, a plausible scenario for Katrina):



[/quote]

[Brent]

I've heard if it's moving NW and passes just south and then just west of New Orleans that would be the ultimate worst case, but passing just east and pushing the lake into the city would not be a walk in the park either.

[cjrciadt]

Thanks for that mtm4319 a 15+ft storm surge would cause insane amount of damage.

[Steve]

Moving WNW passing south of the City (on the Westbank) is by far the worse case scenario (unless a Cat 5 w/ 200mph+ sustained hit which isn't probably in the cards during our lifetimes . What happens in a storm coming up from the ESE is that the Gulf gets piled into the coast, heads up through Lake Borgne and into Lake Pontchartrain. The north winds from that tradjectory (sp?) pile Lake Pontchartrain's water into the Southshore topping and breaking levees. Since the majority of the canals pump toward the Lake, they no longer work and the city becomes inundated. Plenty of town is -5' sea level and lower. There's no way to get the water out since the levees that were built to protect the city also ring her meaning that the ones that don't break will just act like a damn. The longest statistic I've ever seen was that the city could stay partially flooded for up to 6 months. That seemed a little ridiculous, but 30-60 days before much of it became re-habitable is probably legit.

Hope I never see anything like that...

Steve

[storms in NC]

here you go
http://www.nola.com./

[NastyCat4]

A more Western version of Betsy would be the worst case---that looks possible with Katrina.

[NastyCat4]

A more Western version of Betsy would be the worst case---that looks possible with Katrina.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Coming from the SE or SSE as a Category 4 or 5 would be a worst case scenario for New Orleans. Keep in mind, one thing. This city is home to over 1.3 million people on the Southshore of Lake Pontchartrain. With the levees we have and a concerted effort by officials, if the system moves quick enough, I think we could survive the system without Lake Pontchartrain overflowing into the City...We could have a mass emergency effort and add 2 feet to the levee with in vulnerable areas with sandbags...

[storms in NC]

here you go
http://www.nola.com./

[skysummit]

Betsy rode right up Bayou Lafourche and destroyed my parents home. They were only married 1 week.

[Steve]

>>They were only married 1 week.

Damn sky. That was over and done pretty quick, eh?



Steve

[Derek Ortt]

a pass to the east would not be the worst case

we kind of had that with Camielle

[Steve]

Correct DO. A pass south of the City including some northern eyewall fringes is the worst (for reasons explained above).

Steve

[cajungal]

My parents also both lived in Lafourche Parish during Betsy. My mom in Thibodaux and my dad in Cut Off. They were only teenager then. They did not even meet. Neither lost their home. But, extreme damage. Both were in the eyewall. But, my dad and my grandparents evacuated to central Louisiana. And even there they got hurricane force winds! For Betsy, wind gusts to 60 mph were reported all the way to the Louisiana/Arkansas border. It has been 40 years and everybody around here still bring up Betsy all the time.

[skysummit]

>>They were only married 1 week.

Damn sky. That was over and done pretty quick, eh?



Steve

Yea. LOL They got a very small home b/c it was the only thing they could afford and a week later it was gone. My parents got to go outside during the eye.

[Kennethb]

There are plenty of worst case scenerios. Probably the worst worst would be a cat 3 or higher approaching slowly from the south - southwest. This would allow several days of east winds pushing water into Lake Pontchartrain, and as the stormed moved over or just east, push the higher water into the city.

Needless to say, any cat 3 or higher from any direction is not good, especially one that was moving slow or stalled, and with the loss of marsh to buffer the city.

[Jim Cantore]

a slow moving Katrina passing just to the west