$3.00 gas? $4.00 gas?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Steve Cosby
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 525
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2003 6:49 pm
Location: Northwest Arkansas

$3.00 gas? $4.00 gas?

#1 Postby Steve Cosby » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:25 pm

Forget the Cat. 4/5 predictions: If Katrina takes out the refinery at Pascagoula, what do you thing gas prices will be?

For that matter, the GOM wells are shutting down as we speak.

I almost got the guts up to lay a few call options on gasoline this afternoon.

Honestly, the rest of the country will certainly feel sorry for and pray for the area that gets hit but it will be an even bigger attention getter when they head down to the local "Gas-N-Go".

Steve
0 likes   

User avatar
greeng13
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 838
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:23 pm
Location: charleston, sc

Re: $3.00 gas? $4.00 gas?

#2 Postby greeng13 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:30 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:Forget the Cat. 4/5 predictions: If Katrina takes out the refinery at Pascagoula, what do you thing gas prices will be?

For that matter, the GOM wells are shutting down as we speak.

I almost got the guts up to lay a few call options on gasoline this afternoon.

Honestly, the rest of the country will certainly feel sorry for and pray for the area that gets hit but it will be an even bigger attention getter when they head down to the local "Gas-N-Go".

Steve


What was that movie on the Discovery Channel (I think) that dealt with such an event? I watched it. Pretty disturbing as the Miss River is a major port of call for a lot of the nation's oil (not to mention the drilling platforms in the GOM). I'm not going "doomsday" scenario here but it is a valid point you bring up...It was mentioned in another thread earlier but I cannot remember which one and I think the "Search" function on Sorm2K is down right now due to the amount of bandwidth being used by us "storm-hyped" members (and for good reason--the use of the site and being storm-hyped that is :wink: )
0 likes   

User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1616
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

Re: $3.00 gas? $4.00 gas?

#3 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:32 pm

greeng13 wrote:
Steve Cosby wrote:Forget the Cat. 4/5 predictions: If Katrina takes out the refinery at Pascagoula, what do you thing gas prices will be?

For that matter, the GOM wells are shutting down as we speak.

I almost got the guts up to lay a few call options on gasoline this afternoon.

Honestly, the rest of the country will certainly feel sorry for and pray for the area that gets hit but it will be an even bigger attention getter when they head down to the local "Gas-N-Go".

Steve


What was that movie on the Discovery Channel (I think) that dealt with such an event? I watched it. Pretty disturbing as the Miss River is a major port of call for a lot of the nation's oil (not to mention the drilling platforms in the GOM). I'm not going "doomsday" scenario here but it is a valid point you bring up...It was mentioned in another thread earlier but I cannot remember which one and I think the "Search" function on Sorm2K is down right now due to the amount of bandwidth being used by us "storm-hyped" members (and for good reason--the use of the site and being storm-hyped that is :wink: )

Oil Storm on FX features a cane destroying processing in LA and the pipeline lead to nationwide chaos, etc.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve Cosby
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 525
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2003 6:49 pm
Location: Northwest Arkansas

Re: $3.00 gas? $4.00 gas?

#4 Postby Steve Cosby » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:34 pm

cjrciadt wrote:
greeng13 wrote:What was that movie on the Discovery Channel (I think) that dealt with such an event? I watched it. Pretty disturbing as the Miss River is a major port of call for a lot of the nation's oil (not to mention the drilling platforms in the GOM). I'm not going "doomsday" scenario here but it is a valid point you bring up...It was mentioned in another thread earlier but I cannot remember which one and I think the "Search" function on Sorm2K is down right now due to the amount of bandwidth being used by us "storm-hyped" members (and for good reason--the use of the site and being storm-hyped that is :wink: )

Oil Storm on FX features a cane destroying processing in LA and the pipeline lead to nationwide chaos, etc.


I didn't see that and didn't know the Mississippi River was a site for oil delivery. I thought all that was down at Corpus Christi and Houston. Interesting (or sobering).
0 likes   

User avatar
LSU2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1711
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Cut Off, Louisiana

Re: $3.00 gas? $4.00 gas?

#5 Postby LSU2001 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:37 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:Forget the Cat. 4/5 predictions: If Katrina takes out the refinery at Pascagoula, what do you thing gas prices will be?

For that matter, the GOM wells are shutting down as we speak.

I almost got the guts up to lay a few call options on gasoline this afternoon.

Honestly, the rest of the country will certainly feel sorry for and pray for the area that gets hit but it will be an even bigger attention getter when they head down to the local "Gas-N-Go".

Steve


Yeah Cheveron in Pascagoula would be a major hit to gas supply but LA coast is where the crude comes in. It would be really bad to destroy or damage the LOOP. Louisiana Offshore Offloading Platform. I think that is the right name. This unloads supertankers in the gulf and pipelines the crude to the mainland. Remember Ivan ripped up a bunch of Pipelines from underwater landslides and they are still reparing them so another hit this close would be real bad for oil and gas prices.\
JMHO
TIm
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
greeng13
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 838
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:23 pm
Location: charleston, sc

#6 Postby greeng13 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:39 pm

That was the one I watched...sorry i thought it was on Discovery. But yeah it could get bad...but probably a lot of "Hollywood/Deep Impact/The Day After..." crap involved in that one also.

Anybody working in that field care to comment on the possibility of that becoming a reality?

Seems far-fetched but still possible I guess. A CAT 3-4 rolls up the Miss. R. and impacts some oil tankers at port causing the "black gold" to seep from their bowels and in turn shuts down a pipeline to a refinery (I think is how it went)
0 likes   

User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#7 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:39 pm

I think a catastrophe like that will easily make the price of a barrel of oil jump $3.-$4 a barrel. Gas will go over $3 a gallon for the national average
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve Cosby
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 525
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2003 6:49 pm
Location: Northwest Arkansas

Re: $3.00 gas? $4.00 gas?

#8 Postby Steve Cosby » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:43 pm

lsu2001 wrote:Yeah Cheveron in Pascagoula would be a major hit to gas supply but LA coast is where the crude comes in. It would be really bad to destroy or damage the LOOP. Louisiana Offshore Offloading Platform. I think that is the right name. This unloads supertankers in the gulf and pipelines the crude to the mainland. Remember Ivan ripped up a bunch of Pipelines from underwater landslides and they are still reparing them so another hit this close would be real bad for oil and gas prices.\
JMHO
TIm


That's why I like this forum: learn something new every day. Here's some Google results:

http://www.dotd.louisiana.gov/programs_grants/loop/loop.shtml

http://www.barwil.com/wbch3.exe?p=400227

Nothing about the design regarding whether it can stand up to Cat 4/5 hurricanes though...
0 likes   

User avatar
greeng13
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 838
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:23 pm
Location: charleston, sc

#9 Postby greeng13 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:47 pm

just said on TWC that oil platforms have been evacuated (already mentioned some time earlier on another thread) but also mentioned before commercial that the GOM produces some 30% of the nation's oil.

After edit: Is that true? 30%
Last edited by greeng13 on Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
webke
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 290
Age: 69
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:39 pm
Location: North Myrtle Beach SC

#10 Postby webke » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:49 pm

I think if Katrina hits the loop terminals, it could plunge the US into a massive economic decline, which may take years to recover from.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve Cosby
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 525
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2003 6:49 pm
Location: Northwest Arkansas

Re: $3.00 gas? $4.00 gas?

#11 Postby Steve Cosby » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:53 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:Nothing about the design regarding whether it can stand up to Cat 4/5 hurricanes though...


Here's the only reference I can find to what it can withstand:

http://www.enewsbuilder.net/aopl/e_article000210656.cfm

Makes it sound like no big deal.
0 likes   

User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1616
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

Re: $3.00 gas? $4.00 gas?

#12 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:54 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:
Steve Cosby wrote:Nothing about the design regarding whether it can stand up to Cat 4/5 hurricanes though...


Here's the only reference I can find to what it can withstand:

http://www.enewsbuilder.net/aopl/e_article000210656.cfm

Makes it sound like no big deal.

"LOOP can even withstand gale-force winds, hurricane-strength waves and anything else Mother Nature can throw at it." Very assuring :roll: :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
LSU2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1711
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Cut Off, Louisiana

#13 Postby LSU2001 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:37 pm

I do know this much. After 9/11 LOOP is now under armed guard with its own security ship armed with 50 cal. machine guns. If any boat approaches without clearance it will be stopped. Several of my friends tried running to the rig during a thunderstorm and were stopped by armed men on bull horns. Had they continued they would have been fired upon. This in no joke. This port is a matter of national security and can be damaged by nature as well as terrorists.
Tim
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2069
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

#14 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:41 pm

If the path through LA holds true, $3.00/gallon for regular unleaded by next Friday, easy.

:eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
greeng13
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 838
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:23 pm
Location: charleston, sc

#15 Postby greeng13 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:44 pm

johngaltfla wrote:If the path through LA holds true, $3.00/gallon for regular unleaded by next Friday, easy.

:eek:



agreed
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#16 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:47 pm

maybe 5 dollars
0 likes   

User avatar
drudd1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 466
Age: 65
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 4:33 am
Location: Chuluota, FL
Contact:

#17 Postby drudd1 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:51 pm

johngaltfla wrote:If the path through LA holds true, $3.00/gallon for regular unleaded by next Friday, easy.

:eek:


....and I can see the oil companies wringing their hands in anticipation of getting gas up to $3.00 a gallon even earlier than they had hoped. Mark my words, and feel free to remind me if I am wrong, the major oil companies will post record profits once again regardless of where the storm goes.
0 likes   

Mississippi Storm Magnet
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:02 pm
Location: Diamondhead, Mississippi
Contact:

#18 Postby Mississippi Storm Magnet » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:52 pm

From the Pascagoula Chevron website:

ChevronTexaco Pascagoula Refinery celebrated its 40th anniversary in 2003. Since ChevronTexaco began operation of its Pascagoula Refinery in 1963, the refinery has grown to be the corporation's largest U.S. refinery and one of the top ten petroleum refineries in the United States.

If production ceases here for a lengthy time, easily $3-4 a gallon.
0 likes   

User avatar
beachbum_al
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Age: 55
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:23 pm
Location: South Alabama Coast
Contact:

#19 Postby beachbum_al » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:15 pm

There are oil rigs all over that part of the GOM from Mobile to LA. I know they got the crew off of them today according to the news. I smell trouble.
0 likes   

User avatar
greeng13
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 838
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:23 pm
Location: charleston, sc

#20 Postby greeng13 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:16 pm

Mississippi Storm Magnet wrote:From the Pascagoula Chevron website:

ChevronTexaco Pascagoula Refinery celebrated its 40th anniversary in 2003. Since ChevronTexaco began operation of its Pascagoula Refinery in 1963, the refinery has grown to be the corporation's largest U.S. refinery and one of the top ten petroleum refineries in the United States.

If production ceases here for a lengthy time, easily $3-4 a gallon.




that's the trend i am looking at.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests