New models.. W

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hicksta
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#41 Postby hicksta » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:32 pm

Very true, they need to put the middle right on NOLA people need to leave there. Or its going to get bad even if it is west. Putting them on the dirty side..
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Steve
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#42 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:35 pm

JK's got the new NHC #'s @ CFHC (probably already posted somewhere here as well) - from the conference call

GFS is 30 m too low....NAM has better inits...
HPC is going with the NAM forecast....
No support for the GFDL and it's north turn...
Forecast points...
HPC
12 hr 24.7 86.6
24 hr 24.9 86.3
36 hr 25.4 87.4
48 hr 26.1 90.
72 hr 28.7 92.5
96 hr 31.6 93
120 hr 34.9 92.

NHC
12 hr 24.6 84. 6
24 hr 25.0 86.0 115g140kt
36 hr 26.0 87.5 115g140
48 hr 27.0 89.0 115g140
72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 115g140

Steve
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#43 Postby hicksta » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:36 pm

Where does the model put it at.. not the nhc the other
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#44 Postby LaBreeze » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:37 pm

I've still got a gut feeling that she's going to pull a sling shot and head abruptly north to areas near Mobile/Pensacola. This is by no means scientific in any way - just a gut feeling.
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#45 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:37 pm

A few things that have me really concerned here in SE LA. The northerly flow still coming down from the high over the west Atlantic and over Katrina that is not letting her move north at all. The trough over the northern midwest that does not look like it is making any progress south more zonal (east to west). And finally the line of clouds and showers out in front (the west) of Katrina south of central LA is still moving due west with the easterly flow from the high. That band has not moved north at all today and I think Katrina will just follow that same direction. This is not looking good. I know things can change in a hurry, just like the models did today, but as of now it is very disturbing.
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#46 Postby hicksta » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:40 pm

LaBreeze wrote:I've still got a gut feeling that she's going to pull a sling shot and head abruptly north to areas near Mobile/Pensacola. This is by no means scientific in any way - just a gut feeling.


Or is the gut going. GET HER AWAY FROM SW LA :wink:
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#47 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:43 pm

Steve wrote:JK's got the new NHC #'s @ CFHC (probably already posted somewhere here as well) - from the conference call

GFS is 30 m too low....NAM has better inits...
HPC is going with the NAM forecast....
No support for the GFDL and it's north turn...
Forecast points...
HPC
12 hr 24.7 86.6
24 hr 24.9 86.3
36 hr 25.4 87.4
48 hr 26.1 90.
72 hr 28.7 92.5
96 hr 31.6 93
120 hr 34.9 92.

NHC
12 hr 24.6 84. 6
24 hr 25.0 86.0 115g140kt
36 hr 26.0 87.5 115g140
48 hr 27.0 89.0 115g140
72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 115g140

Steve


HPC forecast puts it over my house.
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#48 Postby PurdueWx80 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:44 pm

The 00z GFS has not even intialized yet - they typically do the data dump a few minutes from now - thus, no 00z GFS can possibly give them any help. Not sure I trust what that says.
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#49 Postby tw861 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:46 pm

Brent wrote:I really have to question it...

*goes to edit post*


I saw the info on the other site. If you are questioning the validity of the poster, it's Jason Kelly a TV met in Panama City. He's usually a pretty good source. Now I don't know whether TV mets get to listen in on the conf. call or not or if he has some other source.

Needless to say, this is a real eye opener.
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#50 Postby Lori » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:47 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:

[/quote]HPC forecast puts it over my house.


Yikes, I hate when that happens. :cry:

I'll be praying for you.
Last edited by Lori on Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#51 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:48 pm

tw861 wrote:
Brent wrote:I really have to question it...

*goes to edit post*


I saw the info on the other site. If you are questioning the validity of the poster, it's Jason Kelly a TV met in Panama City. He's usually a pretty good source. Now I don't know whether TV mets get to listen in on the conf. call or not or if he has some other source.

Needless to say, this is a real eye opener.


It was the HPC forecast... NHC takes it into Southwest Mississippi(11pm track just out).
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#52 Postby LaBreeze » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:48 pm

Hicksta, certainly I don't want her visiting SW Louisiana, - so it could be a partial gut feeling to have her not come this way. Still thinking more east however.
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#53 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:48 pm

Steve wrote:JK's got the new NHC #'s @ CFHC (probably already posted somewhere here as well) - from the conference call

GFS is 30 m too low....NAM has better inits...
HPC is going with the NAM forecast....
No support for the GFDL and it's north turn...
Forecast points...
HPC
12 hr 24.7 86.6
24 hr 24.9 86.3
36 hr 25.4 87.4
48 hr 26.1 90.
72 hr 28.7 92.5
96 hr 31.6 93
120 hr 34.9 92.

NHC
12 hr 24.6 84. 6
24 hr 25.0 86.0 115g140kt
36 hr 26.0 87.5 115g140
48 hr 27.0 89.0 115g140
72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 115g140

Steve


NHC:
Image
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Steve
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#54 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:49 pm

Purdue, he's a Chief Met in Panama City Beach and probably one of the top mets on the web. I showed up at his studio once just to say hello and he was probably the nicest guy on the web. I wasn't privy to the call or the notes. There's more at flhurricane, but I don't like going too interboard on the web. I just cut and pasted what he reported on that post.

Steve
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#55 Postby hicksta » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:50 pm

Althought i do not agree with the end part of that track. That track will open people in NO ears. And they will leave.
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#56 Postby HurryKane » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:51 pm

mtm4319 wrote:
Steve wrote:JK's got the new NHC #'s @ CFHC (probably already posted somewhere here as well) - from the conference call

GFS is 30 m too low....NAM has better inits...
HPC is going with the NAM forecast....
No support for the GFDL and it's north turn...
Forecast points...
HPC
12 hr 24.7 86.6
24 hr 24.9 86.3
36 hr 25.4 87.4
48 hr 26.1 90.
72 hr 28.7 92.5
96 hr 31.6 93
120 hr 34.9 92.

NHC
12 hr 24.6 84. 6
24 hr 25.0 86.0 115g140kt
36 hr 26.0 87.5 115g140
48 hr 27.0 89.0 115g140
72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 115g140

Steve


NHC:
Image


I'm gonna be a donkey and beg for that GE link for the NHC track (I have not been able to find it). Please?
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#57 Postby Ixolib » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:52 pm

mtm4319 wrote:NHC:
Image


Sho' looks like a Camille track to me - at least on the landfall end...
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#58 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:52 pm

HurryKane wrote:I'm gonna be a donkey and beg for that GE link for the NHC track (I have not been able to find it). Please?


There's no link, sorry. I just inputted the coordinates as quickly as I could, drew a path connecting the points, and saved the file.

I'd like a link for the NHC plot too. :)
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Steve
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#59 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:54 pm

btw, those heights may have been reported from the Gulfstream? It didn't go into detail.

Steve
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#60 Postby HurryKane » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:55 pm

mtm4319 wrote:
HurryKane wrote:I'm gonna be a donkey and beg for that GE link for the NHC track (I have not been able to find it). Please?


There's no link, sorry. I just inputted the coordinates as quickly as I could, drew a path connecting the points, and saved the file.

I'd like a link for the NHC plot too. :)


Curses! Foiled again :)

Nice job, btw.
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