Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[fci]

Isn't Invest 97L located somewhat near where TD 10's remnants were?

TD10 remmants were a little bit south from where 97L is now at around 48w.

Hey after the TD10/TD12/Katrina experience, I'm watching with interest until it goes fishing....

[cjrciadt]

Isn't Invest 97L located somewhat near where TD 10's remnants were?

TD10 remmants were a little bit south from where 97L is now at around 48w.

Hey after the TD10/TD12/Katrina experience, I'm watching with interest until it goes fishing....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
Well defined and pretty large, even compared to Katrina. If Recon finds Lee prettly soon that will not surprise me.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Yes the only problem is the center is slightly displaced on the western side. But the enviroment appears to be becoming better. This is already appears to be a tropcial storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_2.html

Its a cyclone not quastion about it. I hope when it finally gets upgraded they go back later this year. In say it become a tropical storm a few days earlier.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Boy this poor little forgotten system. BTW it is still moving west. I am not sure if anyone is even still watching this one. models keep saying fish, but it seems like it should have already been moving NW by now. Another 24 hours of W movement and this could be trouble. By teh time Katrina makes landfall this system could be threatening. Here is a not so farfetched possibility.

Like Irene, this system is tracking west and reforming the LLC like it did over the last 12 hours. Because it's getting sheared off, the LLC keeps tracking west pushed by surface westerlies. That is why the models keep initializing it and moving it NW. Once it moves another 5 degree west, the shear and dry air will be gone. The factor in track then will likely be the ridge and weakness. If it builds back in, the east coast of FL could be threatened or or more likely outer banks. It should recurve at some point, but I keep waiting for the turn to happen. There is plenty to watch besides this one, but the strong LLC concerns me.

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATRINA...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING
AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LESS
LIKELY.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA HAVE DIMINISHED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA


NHC says goodbye to 97L.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep that what it looks like. UL winds less favorable....except that teh LLC looks favorable

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir2-loop.html

If it does not disspate it will be in the Hebert box. It needs to go ahead and croak before then

[BensonTCwatcher]

I thought I would ressurect this thread just for some variety ...this was supposed to be sheared to death already, or be moving into the weakness no? and yet?

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_2.html

The new circ. looks much further north which is good sign. Bears some family resemblance to Irene, must be a cousin or something.