TX may want to start watching more closely

[hurricanedude]

Upper Tx Coast now in the concern cone

[hicksta]

Where do you see this

[jasons2k]

DT on NHCWX radio has been saying no way...I didn't catch details but something about another trough moving down from Pacific NW on Sunday would pick up Katrina if she still hasn't turned by then for some reason.

Edit for clarification. He's saying it again right now - another trough from the pacific NW will dive down, and a ridge over W TX at the very least would stall it, and then eventually it would get pulled north.

[dwg71]

Upper Tx Coast now in the concern cone

No part of TX is in the cone of terror. and this is the first forecast with a landfall prediction.

[HouTXmetro]

Where do you see this

I was thinking the same thing. We are not in the Cone.

[hurricanedude]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... asin?large

[hurricanedude]

looks like the NHC is concerned...looks like your in the Danger Zone to me

[mtm4319]

looks like the NHC is concerned...looks like your in the Danger Zone to me

But so is Tampa.

[hurricanedude]

and you folks thought I was lying? shame on you

[jasons2k]

The danger area on the mariner's chart is much wider b/c the wave action/swells extend much further away than wind/precip - it does not mean we are in the landfall cone - which Texas currently is not.

[hurricanedude]

yes so is tampa...but my post was not for tampa...oh never mind...to childish in here

[HouTXmetro]

yes so is tampa...but my post was not for tampa...oh never mind...to childish in here

LOL, it's not that serious.... Thanks for clarifying what you meant by in the cone.

[jasons2k]

edited to have these instead:

[FritzPaul]

Correct me if I'm wrong....

Thats the mariner's 1-2-3 rule map( Explanation at bottom of map).

The NHC's map is based on 10yr Avg's of previous storms (Heard that from another Pro-Met the other day here: Although I might be misquoting him and thats why I say correct me if I'm wrong).

[gboudx]

For grin's, an update to the DFW AFD tonight:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

.UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO REDUCE OVERNIGHT POPS AND MAKE SKIES
GENERALLY CLEAR OVER CWA.

LANDFALL SOLUTIONS ON HURRICANE KATRINA REMAIN UP FOR GRABS AS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PUSH IT WESTWARD WITH EACH NEW RUN. IF IT BEGINS TARGET SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEFORE HOOKING NORTHWARD...THEN OUR FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE TO BE ONE THAT IS CLOUDIER...WINDIER AND WETTER. 75

[jeff]

Everyone along the Gulf coast including TX should maintain a close watch on this potential monster hurricane.

00Z upper air obs still show 5910-5920 m heights over much of the Gulf coast with only about a 10 dm fall since the 12Z soundings. The high remains strong over the S US....and hence the motion continues to head WSW.

[jasons2k]

For grin's, an update to the DFW AFD tonight:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

.UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO REDUCE OVERNIGHT POPS AND MAKE SKIES
GENERALLY CLEAR OVER CWA.

LANDFALL SOLUTIONS ON HURRICANE KATRINA REMAIN UP FOR GRABS AS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PUSH IT WESTWARD WITH EACH NEW RUN. IF IT BEGINS TARGET SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEFORE HOOKING NORTHWARD...THEN OUR FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE TO BE ONE THAT IS CLOUDIER...WINDIER AND WETTER. 75

That is indeed most interesting......I wonder how that reconciles with DT'd thoughts. I don't think the mets at FWD would miss something like that.

[gboudx]

For grin's, an update to the DFW AFD tonight:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

.UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO REDUCE OVERNIGHT POPS AND MAKE SKIES
GENERALLY CLEAR OVER CWA.

LANDFALL SOLUTIONS ON HURRICANE KATRINA REMAIN UP FOR GRABS AS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PUSH IT WESTWARD WITH EACH NEW RUN. IF IT BEGINS TARGET SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEFORE HOOKING NORTHWARD...THEN OUR FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE TO BE ONE THAT IS CLOUDIER...WINDIER AND WETTER. 75

That is indeed most interesting......I wonder how that reconciles with DT'd thoughts. I don't think the mets at FWD would miss something like that.

DT's thoughts? Can you elaborate or provide a link?

[Swimdude]

Upper Tx Coast now in the concern cone

OHHH you shouldn't say this!

Everyone knows Houstonians are the most dreadful people I disagree with on the boards. I happen to be included in that group!

[HouTXmetro]

Upper Tx Coast now in the concern cone

OHHH you shouldn't say this!

Everyone knows Houstonians are the most dreadful people I disagree with on the boards. I happen to be included in that group!

LOL,