The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Tropical Storm Katrina Advisory 4
8:00 PM PDT Aug 26 2005 (11:00 PM EDT or 3Z Aug 27 2005)
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For official forecasts...please refer to the NHC. This is an independent product.
Please remember...tropical cyclones can be very unpredictable and can make sudden changes and/or shifts in both track and intensity.
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...Katrina a surprise hurricane...now progged to make final landfall just to the east of New Orleans as a category 4 hurricane...
Katrina made landfall near the Miami-Dade/Broward county line at 6:30 yesterday night, killing at least 7 people, and causing extensive damage. Instead of moving westward...it suddenly shifted south of its forecast track...placing areas such as downtown Miami...Key Biscayne...Coral Gables...Cutler Ridge...and Homestead under its southeastern eyewall for hours. Thus the rain amounts for those areas were markedly higher...locally 20 inches...and major flooding has occurred.
The storm has maintained its just south of due west motion for over 12 hours now...and that ensures that this is not just a minor wobble. In fact...this situation is similar to Ivan just south of Jamaica. A slight wobble changed the entire track. What was a storm suppose to make landfall near Appalachicola eventually made landfall near Gulf Shores AL and Pensacola FL.
The more south and west than projected trend would alone signal a major increase in probability of a hit west of the Florida panhandle. The NHC has already made a significant shift westward...now with landfall progged west of Mobile AL. To add onto that...many of the models have now shifted west...and since now the models are beginning to agree with each other...confidence is increasing. The BAM models...the westernmost models...are indicating a track in which landfall would occur near Morgan City LA. UKMET and the A98E are the easternmost models...forecasting landfall around Pascagoula MS. Perhaps the most disturbing track is the GFDL...which takes the eye of the storm right over New Orleans. It is also interesting to note that the GFDL has had the best track record for Katrina...foreseeing the southward shift. A weakness in the ridge created by a trough in the northern United States will steer Katrina northward...but because of its current latitude...will shift the track significantly westward...putting the center near Biloxi at landfall. But know that models and the track will shift many times over the coarse of the weekend.
An eye feature is beginning to pop out on the latest IR imagery...and the Key West radar continues to indicate better structure. Earlier today...recon found a minimum pressure of 965 mb...and maximum flight level winds of 94 kt...all corresponding to a category 2 hurricane. Strengthening should continue...and in fact...given that the SST's are over 90°F and that the structure of the hurricane is very organized...Katrina should begin to rapidly intensify. The only factors against rapid intensification would be the dry mid-level air surrounding Katrina and some weak northerly shear from an upper-level anticyclone over southeast Louisiana. However...the anticyclone should be weakening...and as a result...dry air entrainment will not be as much as a factor from here on out.. A strong category 4 hurricane will be expected in the northern GOM. A category 5 hurricane should not be ruled out. Strengthening is indicated until landfall.
And...unlike other storms...there is not an upstream trough that will pick Katrina up...as stated eariler...it will be a trough already over the central United States that will leave behind a weakness to steer Katrina. This scenario does not place Katrina over a position where a trough will induce shear and dry air entrainment into the storm...as was the case in previous storms like Opal and Ivan. Any deviation to the west will place Katrina over warmer waters and will increase the potential of an even stronger storm making landfall. The bottom line is Katrina should be a very dangerous hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. After it makes landfall...I think steering currents will slow down...but will not show that until I have more evidence.
The tropical storm warning for the Florida Keys should be cancelled tomorrow morning...but residents in the Keys should not venture outside until the local authorities instruct that it is safe to do so. Hurricane watches may be needed for the northern Gulf coast tomorrow.
Repeating...Katrina will be a potentially dangerous hurricane over the northern Gulf coast. Landfall as a category 4 hurricane is expected...with the greatest threat area from Pensacola FL to Morgan City LA. All residents living along the Gulf coast from Texas to the Florida panhandle need to watch Katrina carefully and start making preparations should your local authorities instruct you to do so.
Forecaster Tang
Hour Position Intensity
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Initial 24.6N 83.6W 90 kt
12 hr 24.6N 85.0W 105 kt
24 hr 25.2N 86.5W 115 kt
36 hr 26.4N 87.9W 125 kt
48 hr 28.1N 88.6W 130 kt
72 hr 30.9N 88.9W 100 kt...inland
96 hr 33.8N 88.4W 45 kt...inland
120 hr 36.1N 86.1W 25 kt...inland dissipating
Track:
Comments aren't just appreciated and welcomed, they're NEEDED!!!! This is the first fcst that I've made so bullishly.
EDIT: LOL I thought it wasw still August 13
, changed it to Aug. 26
