Umm.. New Orleans is in trouble

[skysummit]

Cajungal....are you beginning to get nervous?

[Ixolib]

Ixolib:

Look for the models under New Models Thread Shows 00z.

Thanks, Lori and the rest - **looking now**

[AL Chili Pepper]

I saw the track for Katrina now..

If I'm in New Orleans, I think it's time to get concerned.. VERY concerned.. This isn't exactly looking pretty for New Orleans

Is it still reasonable to say we still have THREE DAYS until landfall? Or... is there any indication that this track is somewhat confident?? I mean, isn't she STILL traveling WSW? Even long after the more westerly shift should have happened based on previous forecasts.

Even the 00Z NAM is on board now, with a hit on SE LA. It was waaaayyy south of there in the previous run. Anywhere from western FL Panhandle to Lake Charles is still in play considering what's happened today, especially with 3 days of nailbiting to go. Right now the bullseye is on NO, but that can, and likely will, change again. Maybe not much, but 50 miles means a lot.

[cajungal]

Cajungal....are you beginning to get nervous?

Nervous,yes. Panic, no. I might wake up tomorrow and find the models shifted east again. But, I work from 12-9 tomorrow and from 12-7 tomorrow. I won't be around a TV or computer for that length of time. And it will drive me insane!

[arizonasooner]

Maybe not much, but 50 miles means a lot

So true.

If the storm goes inland between New Iberia and Houma, it could be Cat 5 and no one would really notice... But a few miles to the east and we have National News....

[cajungal]

Notice? It goes over Houma. I am in the NE quadrent. Houma is barely 8 miles due north of my house. BAD for New Orleans too.

[arizonasooner]

Schriever, huh?

Just south of Thibodaux and the Fighting Colonels of Nicholls State... My McNeese buddies used to regularly take those guys to the woodshed...

I'm talking about if Katrina goes in around the Atchafalaya Bay area like Andrew did. Nothing down there... Morgan City takes a bit of a hit but the National News goes back to covering cleanup in Florida...

Well maybe thats a instead.

[Rieyeuxs]

A question for those in the know. I know she'll accelerate as she turns N, but how fast is fast on the diasaster plans? I'm not -removed-, just curious. I've read, (okay scanned, there's a ton of them!) worst case happening for NOLA, but most call for a slow moving or stalled southern hurricane. It seems that Kat will be moving to fast for the worst of the worse (anything would be bad).

Anybody have a guesstimate of forward speed of Kat at a NOLA impact probability vs the worst case stall?

Like I said, just curious (and hoping that faster is better!)

[rtd2]

I know it's already gotta be in here someplace, but these threads are flying like Bud Light off the store shelves... Does anybody have a link/graphic of the models that have "clustered"?

here

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

or

Look on the left and click latest model overlay

http://www.tropmet.com/alert.htm

[Ixolib]

I know it's already gotta be in here someplace, but these threads are flying like Bud Light off the store shelves... Does anybody have a link/graphic of the models that have "clustered"?

here

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

or

Look on the left and click latest model overlay

http://www.tropmet.com/alert.htm

That worked... THANKS!!

[rtd2]

I know it's already gotta be in here someplace, but these threads are flying like Bud Light off the store shelves... Does anybody have a link/graphic of the models that have "clustered"?

here

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

or

Look on the left and click latest model overlay

http://www.tropmet.com/alert.htm

That worked... THANKS!!

Anytime!

[zoeyann]

If the storm goes inland between New Iberia and Houma, it could be Cat 5 and no one would really notice... But a few miles to the east and we have National News....

There is lots of land area in Terrebonne Parish. Including coastal land land South of Houma. We would certainly notice

[skysummit]

If the storm goes inland between New Iberia and Houma, it could be Cat 5 and no one would really notice... But a few miles to the east and we have National News....

There is lots of land area in Terrebonne Parish. Including coastal land land South of Houma. We would certainly notice

Uhhh..yes we will. People in other parts don't realize just how many people live down here.

[sweetpea]

OK don't shoot me. But why are all of you that live in NO still on the computer? Why haven't you left yet? You have access to more info than most by being on this board. If the track is wrong so be it. But if I were in your shoes I would be gone. If NHC was wrong I would curse them out later. Just be safe people.

Debbie

[Sean in New Orleans]

OK don't shoot me. But why are all of you that live in NO still on the computer? Why haven't you left yet? You have access to more info than most by being on this board. If the track is wrong so be it. But if I were in your shoes I would be gone. If NHC was wrong I would curse them out later. Just be safe people.

Debbie

We'll be leaving, but, why tonight? Katrina is by Cuba...it's Friday night and it's not supposed to even be here until Monday after dark. We've got some time.

[superfly]

There's no reason to leave until Sunday to be honest. I'll most likely not leave at all.

[jkt21787]

There's no reason to leave until Sunday to be honest. I'll most likely not leave at all.

Wow, that is really dangerous. I can't believe i'm reading it actually. I guess you think the models are 100% wrong. Bad move IMO and probably in most others' too

As I said to a poster on another board, not trying to be mean, but its that kind of attitude which leads to deaths from these storms. Its really sad to read about it.

You may think your city is spared, but it isn't. It may not be this storm, but one day NOLA will take a direct hit and the loss of life will be very large due to the attitude seen above that will remain present.

[wxmann_91]

There's no reason to leave until Sunday to be honest. I'll most likely not leave at all.

Well there'll be a better picture on Sunday of where Katrina will make landfall, but if it's pointing at NO you better leave, flies can't make it thru canes. Forget all about the NOLA "force field" and save your life.

[superfly]

There's no reason to leave until Sunday to be honest. I'll most likely not leave at all.

Well there'll be a better picture on Sunday of where Katrina will make landfall, but if it's pointing at NO you better leave, flies can't make it thru canes. Forget all about the NOLA "force field" and save your life.

Maybe I'll climb a tree and measure the pressure with my hand-held barometer like that guy did in the Labor Day Hurricane .

In all seriousness though, if the signs are real bad on Sunday, I might leave. However, I didn't leave for Andrew or Lili or Ivan or Dennis or Georges though so chances are I'm going to ride it out.

[Windy]

There's no reason to leave until Sunday to be honest. I'll most likely not leave at all.

http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/o/nov04/nov04c.html