Hurricane Katrina

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #941 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:02 am

The Gfdl/Ukmet shows tracks close to New orleans.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #942 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:02 am

120 mph flight level winds...

rockyman · #943 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:04 am

Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 15a

Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on August 27, 2005

...Katrina continues to strengthen... still moving toward the
west-southwest...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Florida Bay and for
the Florida Keys from Key Largo southward and westward to Key West
including the Dry Tortugas.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 am EDT...0600z...the eye of Hurricane Katrina was located by
radar near latitude 24.4 north... longitude 84.0 west or about 450
miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 135
miles west of Key West Florida.

Katrina is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph. A gradual
turn to the west and west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph with higher
gusts. Katrina is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Katrina is expected to become a major hurricane today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the
center... and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85
miles.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb...28.44 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
can be expected along the southwest coast of Florida in areas of
onshore flow east of Cape Sable... and in Florida Bay. Storm surge
will gradually subside today.

Katrina is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches
over northwestern Cuba and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected
over the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainfall is expected to slowly diminish
across the lower Florida Keys... although an additional 1 to 2
inches of rain is possible in some of the heavier rain bands.

Isolated tornadoes are possible this morning over the Florida Keys.

Repeating the 2 am EDT position...24.4 N... 84.0 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...110
mph. Minimum central pressure... 963 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.

Forecaster Knabb

#944 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:04 am

Well the winds are now up to 110 mph and she is STILL moving wsw at 8 mph.

djtil · #945 Postby **djtil** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:05 am

ok..so what does the -1102 ft correspond to in surface pressure?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #946 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:08 am

djtil wrote:ok..so what does the -1102 ft correspond to in surface pressure?

You don't convert d-values into surface pressure. It's nothing more than a difference between standard flight height and actual.

BamaMan · #947 Postby **BamaMan** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:08 am

man this isnt looking good at all :eek:

djtil · #948 Postby **djtil** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:09 am

ah..ok...i thought there might be a direct conversion....instead of just a correlation.

mtm4319 · #949 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:10 am

BamaMan wrote:man this isnt looking good at all

It isn't for wherever this hits, but for Mobile it's looking better by the hour.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #950 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:12 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 12
Latest Recon Position: 84 mi NW of Havana, Cuba

Ob #01: 05:58:00Z; 24.2°N 83.8°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: -322 ft; Wind: SW (227°) @ 90 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 91 mph; Radar Altitude: 9820 ft
Ob #02: 05:58:30Z; 24.2°N 83.8°W; PA: 10026 ft; D-Value: -276 ft; Wind: SW (228°) @ 89 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 89 mph; Radar Altitude: 9905 ft
Ob #03: 05:59:00Z; 24.2°N 83.8°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: -240 ft; Wind: SW (230°) @ 82 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 82 mph; Radar Altitude: 9902 ft
Ob #04: 05:59:30Z; 24.1°N 83.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -200 ft; Wind: SW (229°) @ 82 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 9951 ft
Ob #05: 06:00:00Z; 24.1°N 83.7°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: -167 ft; Wind: SW (217°) @ 81 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 9974 ft
Ob #06: 06:00:30Z; 24.1°N 83.7°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -144 ft; Wind: SW (215°) @ 78 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 81 mph; Radar Altitude: 10013 ft
Ob #07: 06:01:00Z; 24.1°N 83.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -125 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 71 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 75 mph; Radar Altitude: 10030 ft
Ob #08: 06:01:30Z; 24.1°N 83.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -95 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 71 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 73 mph; Radar Altitude: 10056 ft
Ob #09: 06:02:00Z; 24°N 83.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -75 ft; Wind: SW (218°) @ 77 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 77 mph; Radar Altitude: 10072 ft
Ob #10: 06:02:30Z; 24°N 83.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -62 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 74 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 78 mph; Radar Altitude: 10092 ft
Ob #11: 06:03:00Z; 24°N 83.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -39 ft; Wind: SW (220°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 69 mph; Radar Altitude: 10112 ft
Ob #12: 06:03:30Z; 24°N 83.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -20 ft; Wind: SW (220°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 70 mph; Radar Altitude: 10128 ft
Ob #13: 06:04:00Z; 24°N 83.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -10 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 71 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 73 mph; Radar Altitude: 10144 ft
Ob #14: 06:04:30Z; 23.9°N 83.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 10 ft; Wind: SW (222°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 70 mph; Radar Altitude: 10167 ft
Ob #15: 06:05:00Z; 23.9°N 83.5°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 26 ft; Wind: SW (222°) @ 68 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 69 mph; Radar Altitude: 10167 ft
Ob #16: 06:05:30Z; 23.9°N 83.5°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 43 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 66 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 67 mph; Radar Altitude: 10203 ft
Ob #17: 06:06:00Z; 23.9°N 83.4°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: SW (215°) @ 62 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 63 mph; Radar Altitude: 10200 ft
Ob #18: 06:06:30Z; 23.9°N 83.4°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 69 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 60 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 62 mph; Radar Altitude: 10230 ft
Ob #19: 06:07:00Z; 23.8°N 83.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 82 ft; Wind: SW (220°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 60 mph; Radar Altitude: 10240 ft
Ob #20: 06:07:30Z; 23.8°N 83.4°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 92 ft; Wind: SW (222°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 59 mph; Radar Altitude: 10240 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #951 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:14 am

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 04
Time: 05:53:30Z
Latitude: 24.4°N
Longitude: 84°W
Location: 139 mi NW of Havana, Cuba
Minimum height at 700 mb 2673 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Maximum flight level wind: NE (48°) @ 105 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 10 mi NW (325°)
Sea level pressure: 950 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 57°F at 9990 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 63°F at 9974 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 55°F
Eye character: OPEN NNW
Eye shape: Elliptical
Eye diameter: Major axis oriented NE (60°), major axis length: 23 mi, minor axis length: 17 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 91 KT NW QUAD 05:50:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 325 / 9NM
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

Dmetal81 · #952 Postby **Dmetal81** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:15 am

wow, that pressure is impressive! :eek:

wayoutfront · #953 Postby **wayoutfront** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:15 am

TWC just reported recon found 950mb. since i can't decipher these recon reports is that accurate?

wayoutfront · #954 Postby **wayoutfront** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:17 am

wayoutfront wrote:TWC just reported recon found 950mb. since i can't decipher these recon reports is that accurate?

never mind senor was posting as i was typing

#955 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:17 am

senorpepr wrote:VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 04
Time: 05:53:30Z
Latitude: 24.4°N
Longitude: 84°W
Location: 139 mi NW of Havana, Cuba
Minimum height at 700 mb 2673 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Maximum flight level wind: NE (48°) @ 105 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 10 mi NW (325°)
Sea level pressure: 950 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 57°F at 9990 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 63°F at 9974 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 55°F
Eye character: OPEN NNW
Eye shape: Elliptical
Eye diameter: Major axis oriented NE (60°), major axis length: 23 mi, minor axis length: 17 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 91 KT NW QUAD 05:50:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 325 / 9NM
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

No doubt they have not measured the max winds yet. Hard to imagine that the pressure is down to 950 without at least enough catchup to get the hurricane to 100 knots...

MW

#956 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:17 am

WOW 950 mb with an open eyewall can that be correct?

DoctorHurricane2003 · #957 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:18 am

That is amazing...and to think it will easily go down further tonight and tomorrow...

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #958 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:19 am

wayoutfront · #959 Postby **wayoutfront** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:21 am

a 950 pressure supports a strong cat 3/ minimal cat 4 does it not?

9/20/1967-BEULAH. 28.05/950 mb - 120-Mph. Texas.

10/3/1964 - HILDA. 28.05/950 mb - 115-Mph. Louisiana.

8/30/1942. 28.05/950 mb Texas.

8/23/1999 - BRET. 28.08/951 mb - 115-Mph. Texas.

9/8/1974 - CARMEN. 28.11/952 mb - 120-Mph. Louisiana.

9/23/1975 - ELOISE. 28.20/955 mb - 125-Mph. Florida Panhandle

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #960 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:22 am

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 06
Time: 0600Z
Latitude: 24.3°N
Longitude: 83.9°W
Location: 131 mi NW of Havana, Cuba
Surface: 959 mb; Temp: 79°F; Dewpt: 26.2°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
925mb height: 1040 ft; Temp: 76°F; Dewpt: 24.4°F; S (185°) @ 142 mph
850mb height: 3478 ft; Temp: 71°F; Dewpt: 21.7°F; SSW (205°) @ 101 mph
700mb height: 8963 ft; Temp: 52°F; SW (235°) @ 106 mph
EYEWALL 135 SPL 2441N08387W 0559 LST WND 022 MBL WND 18615
AEV 20507 DLM WND 20095 956748 WL150 17111 097

Hurricane Katrina

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