NWS Tallahassee thinks track will shift further west.

[Stormcenter]

This excerpt is from the just issued 8-27-05 NWS discussion out of Tallahassee, FL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
223 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOR KATRINA HAS SHIFTED DRAMATICALLY WWD
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AS HAVE VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED IN SHOWING LANDFALL
OVER SERN LA. THE GFS IS IN SYNC WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONCERNING THE TIMING OF LANDFALL, ALTHOUGH IT IS ABOUT 40 NM TO THE
LEFT (W). THIS WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO USE THE GFS/MAV FOR OUR WIND
FORECASTS. THIS WWD TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TOO WEAK IN THEIR INITIALIZATIONS OF THE RIDGE N OF KATRINA,
BASED ON RAOB DATA. THE MOVEMENT IS STILL S OF W, AND THE LONGER
THIS CONTINUES, THE FURTHER W THE LANDFALL POINT WILL BE. WE WILL NO
LONGER BE FORECASTING ANY SUSTAINED TS FORCE WINDS IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, TS FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON ACROSS
OUR COASTAL ZONES, MAINLY FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY WWD. CURRENT POPS FOR
TODAY THROUGH SUN LOOK REASONABLE, AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE
MADE. BECAUSE OF THE WWD SHIFT IN THE TRACK, AND THE DELAY IN
LANDFALL TIME, POPS ON SUN NIGHT WERE LOWERED TO LIKELY. FOR MON, WE
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS FOR CONTINUITY, AS WE EXPECT FEEDER
BANDS FROM THE HURRICANE TO REACH INTO OUR AREA. THE GFS SHOWS THIS
WELL. WE ALSO NUDGED POPS UP TO LOW END LIKELY FOR MON NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM WILL JUST BE COMING ASHORE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.

[HouTXmetro]

This excerpt is from the just issued 8-27-05 NWS discussion out of Tallahassee, FL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
223 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOR KATRINA HAS SHIFTED DRAMATICALLY WWD
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AS HAVE VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED IN SHOWING LANDFALL
OVER SERN LA. THE GFS IS IN SYNC WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONCERNING THE TIMING OF LANDFALL, ALTHOUGH IT IS ABOUT 40 NM TO THE
LEFT (W). THIS WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO USE THE GFS/MAV FOR OUR WIND
FORECASTS. THIS WWD TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TOO WEAK IN THEIR INITIALIZATIONS OF THE RIDGE N OF KATRINA,
BASED ON RAOB DATA. THE MOVEMENT IS STILL S OF W, AND THE LONGER
THIS CONTINUES, THE FURTHER W THE LANDFALL POINT WILL BE. WE WILL NO
LONGER BE FORECASTING ANY SUSTAINED TS FORCE WINDS IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, TS FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON ACROSS
OUR COASTAL ZONES, MAINLY FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY WWD. CURRENT POPS FOR
TODAY THROUGH SUN LOOK REASONABLE, AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE
MADE. BECAUSE OF THE WWD SHIFT IN THE TRACK, AND THE DELAY IN
LANDFALL TIME, POPS ON SUN NIGHT WERE LOWERED TO LIKELY. FOR MON, WE
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS FOR CONTINUITY, AS WE EXPECT FEEDER
BANDS FROM THE HURRICANE TO REACH INTO OUR AREA. THE GFS SHOWS THIS
WELL. WE ALSO NUDGED POPS UP TO LOW END LIKELY FOR MON NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM WILL JUST BE COMING ASHORE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.

I doubt it shifts as far west as Houston but I beggining to get concerned for My relatives in New Iberia, LA.

[BamaMan]

Local Forecast for Mobile as of right now:

Sunday Night: Occasional showers and thunderstorms. Low near 77. Windy, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to between 25 and 30 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday: Occasional showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. Windy, with a northeast wind 45 to 50 mph increasing to between 75 and 90 mph. Winds could gust as high as 110 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Windy, with a east wind 85 to 95 mph becoming southwest 60 to 65 mph. Winds could gust as high as 110 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I completely agree. Check out hte SE US water vapor loop. Look at how the northern fringes of Katrina is still flattened out with northerly flow coming straight throough Alabama all the way into the Atlantic. That is keeping her from turning north. The southerly flow has set up in the far western portions of Louisiana. The high is not breaking down to quick and has a ways to go to leave that weakness behind. Another 8 hours or so of the w/wsw movement and the track will shift west again. Also check out that much talked about line of showers and clouds to the west of Katrina. Not much northerly movement with that either. Still pushing west. Could be pointing at a central LA landfall?