Is the turn beginning finally?

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Huckster
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Is the turn beginning finally?

#1 Postby Huckster » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:19 am

I hate wobble threads, and I can't stand jog threads, but I'll go ahead and say that Katrina doesn't seem to be going south anymore based on the long range radar outta Key West. My eyes are so tired, but I am confident I'm not imagining this. Here ya go.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kbyx.shtml
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#2 Postby stormspotter » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:19 am

I agree.
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#3 Postby cajunwxman » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:22 am

I agree, it appears almost due west. :eek:
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#4 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:22 am

Quite possibly.

Image

It's kind of going in little loops, but each one is going a bit farther north.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#5 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:23 am

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#6 Postby jopatura » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:24 am

It might be moving south just slightly, but not to the degree that it had been. Could be a wobble, could be the turn. Another hour or so would tell us for sure.
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#7 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:27 am

Look at the last frame in this loop, looks like it's back to west-south-west, so the west direction could have been a wobble?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#8 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:27 am

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#9 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:29 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Look at the last frame in this loop, looks like it's back to west-south-west, so the west direction could have been a wobble?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


To be honest, it's kind of like comparing apples to oranges. This link updates every 30 minutes, while the radar I'm looking at updates every 5-6 minutes. Perhaps you're looking at the forest while I'm looking at the trees. :D
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#10 Postby Ixolib » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:29 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Look at the last frame in this loop, looks like it's back to west-south-west, so the west direction could have been a wobble?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html



Does the extrap show anything from an earlier point?
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#11 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:30 am

can you post a link for that radar? The key west one is out of range. I want to see the one you are looking at, so that I can replace the one in my bookmarks.

Thanks!
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#12 Postby jopatura » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:31 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Look at the last frame in this loop, looks like it's back to west-south-west, so the west direction could have been a wobble?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Based on that, it almost looks like Katrina is stair-stepping her way south. Almost like she's trying to battle the high/ridge to let her in, she wins a little, then she loses a little. Not sure what that means though...
Last edited by jopatura on Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#13 Postby artist » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:33 am

on the long range I can still see Katrina in the radar from Key West.
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#14 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:34 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Look at the last frame in this loop, looks like it's back to west-south-west, so the west direction could have been a wobble?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


I predict that Kat will finally hit a forecast point when the loop updates. It's been a while.
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#15 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:35 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:can you post a link for that radar? The key west one is out of range. I want to see the one you are looking at, so that I can replace the one in my bookmarks.

Thanks!


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=320

Around the middle of the page.
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#16 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:42 am

the last loop just updated. There's no doubt it's still moving west-southwest, just jogged west for a bit is all.
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#17 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:45 am

Long range is angled too high up to see legitimate movement and has been since that thread early this evening. Go by the vortex messages we get and then plot them vs. the visibles that come out in 5 hours. That should get us a fairly good idea.

Steve
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#18 Postby jopatura » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:53 am

On TWC, they just talked about the westerly movement. They also said it's too early to tell if it's the turn or not because there's not that much more westerly movement. They said give it a few hours.
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#19 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:56 am

jopatura wrote:On TWC, they just talked about the westerly movement. They also said it's too early to tell if it's the turn or not because there's not that much more westerly movement. They said give it a few hours.


Hehe yea, I got to stop looking at it every frame. That's enough to drive me crazy. One frame it looks west-south-west, next frame west. Perhaps this is just the transition period before it starts the legitimate turn.
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#20 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:00 am

Stormcenter wrote:She is also growing in size. :eek:


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6


Looks like her outflow is improving to the N and NW, probably meaning the ridge isn't stepping on it like it has been. I'd bet that we've seen the last of the S component.
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