New track is right over N.O.!

[Stormcenter]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[ConvergenceZone]

woot! 115 mph, looks like we got a cat 3!

[ConvergenceZone]

more bad news from the latest discussion:

<<<Reconnaissance aircraft data and surface observations indicate that
Katrina has become a larger hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 40 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 150 miles.>>>

[mtm4319]

The NHC done did it.

That's right over the city.

I assume evacuations will begin shortly.

[rtd2]

The NHC done did it.

That's right over the city.

I assume evacuations will begin shortly.

Kuddos to the NHC they waited as LONG as possible to pill the String!

[mobilebay]

Also of note the wind field has increased. hurricane force winds now extend out 40 miles and Tropical Storm winds 150 miles. WOW!

[FritzPaul]

The NHC done did it.

That's right over the city.

I assume evacuations will begin shortly.

Everyone is sleeping or drunk/hungover or both.

[Windy]

Well, we always knew that this day might come. This looks about as bad as it can get -- lets hope *big time* that the storm turns right or that it plows into land in the middle of an ERC.

[ConvergenceZone]

Stay Safe Paul!! Looks like you are right in the path there.

[mtm4319]

The forecast track looks probably a little more like this (yellow line; the white line was the 11pm forecast track):



This would put it just west of the city. Maybe 90.1 W at New Orleans's latitude.

[rtd2]

The forecast track looks probably a little more like this (yellow line; the white line was the 11pm forecast track):



This would put it just west of the city. Maybe 90.1 W at New Orleans's latitude.

OFFICIAL IS 89.9 WHICH IS THE MS/LA line.....shift of about 20 miles west from 11pm to 5am


STILL EAST of the City

[mtm4319]

OFFICIAL IS 89.9 WHICH IS THE MS/LA line.....shift of about 20 miles west from 11pm to 5am


STILL EAST of the City

I know that, but a mere connecting the dots with a straight line probably isn't the most accurate way. Notice that the 96-hour point is at 87.5 west, which means it's recurving.



Do you really expect it to ride the 90-degree parallel exactly? It's more plausible to think it will go just west of 90, then start curving back and hit 90 again at the point where NHC shows.

And 89.6 is the MS/LA line.

[rtd2]

OFFICIAL IS 89.9 WHICH IS THE MS/LA line.....shift of about 20 miles west from 11pm to 5am


STILL EAST of the City

I know that, but a mere connecting the dots with a straight line probably isn't the most accurate way. Notice that the 96-hour point is at 87.5 west, which means it's recurving.



Do you really expect it to ride the 90-degree parallel exactly? It's more plausible to think it will go just west of 90, then start curving back and hit 90 again at the point where NHC shows.

And 89.6 is the MS/LA line.

No but the Panic button Changes When you talk about a L/F east or west of you. I dont expect it to Go due North In fact I wouldnt be suprised to see an IVAN type Recuve at the last minute.

[BamaMan]

Please dont anyone bash me, but the thing that bothers me here is the fact that a couple of bad storms (Ivan, Dennis) in the last year have been coming directly at us, and have recurved ever so slightly to the NE, or turned northeast late in the game, to barely avoid a direct hit. We have been very lucky, The thing I have been dreading most was when one would be forecast to make landfall to the west of us. This one definitely is starting to really worry me now

[Steve]

If that track were to verify (and we know it won't exactly), depending on the size of the eye, I either get northern eyewall-eye-southern eyewall or I get western eyewall. My dad's house is right where the forecast line meets Lake Pontchartrain. I'm a bit south of the middle of the lake (kind of due south from the Causeway).

Track appears to landfall just east of Grand Isle in Lower Plaquemines Parish +/- Barataria Bay. Here are some points of reference.

Plaquemines Parish:

http://www.enlou.com/maps/plaquemines_map.htm

Jefferson Parish

http://www.enlou.com/maps/jefferson_map.htm

It appears we're nearing the end of the western adjustment to the track. One would think that future changes would be toward the east and then maybe back some. Looks like it's coming down to how sharp of a right hand turn Katrina wants to make. On satellite, Katrina appears to be due south of last night's track near Apalachacola. All points between there and Lafourche/Terrebonne Parishes (2 Parishes immediately to the west of southern Jefferson) make the landfall cut. Unless Katrina was to continue westward or stall out, it looks like points on either side of that can at least wipe a little sweat off their brows while continuing to pay very close attention to developments. THIS IS NOT A FORECAST but simply an idea played off of the theory put out by the NHC and computer models that Katrina will turn from W to N over a period of 48-60 hours.

Steve

[BamaMan]

Call me stupid Steve, but points on either side of where? App, and ?

Thx Didnt sleep so good so brain is not functioning 100%

[Steve]

For the western edge if the western adjustments were over or almost over, I was using Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes (Cocodrie, Dulac, Golden Meadow, Fourchon, Leeville). That's what they call way down the bayou.

Steve

[BamaMan]

Ok thanks. I had a great speck fishing trip down in the Lafourche area last spring. Great place.
Appreciate the clarification

[Thunder44]

I don't think there will be any evacuations until a hurricane watch is issued.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think there will be any evacuations until a hurricane watch is issued.

I agree...Thats still 36 hours to try to forecast it to...