Not far enough south, track will again shift east.

[chrisnnavarre]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Current 5am (EDT) position 24.4N 84.4W is not that far from the previous NHC track (ALA/MISS) border which was just south of 25N at 5AM (EDT).

In order for the current NHC track to be true, Katrina must not climb past 25N by 11PM tonight. Look at the NHC track posted on this site... 24hrs from 11PM 26Aug ...the plots sits right at 25N.

Sorry but if the turn has now started..and the storm is actually moving west and soon north of west due to weather influences from the north, I simply do not believe that she will only climb .6 degrees north in 17 hours.

I would expect the models to adjust to this sometime this afternoon as well.

Just my opinion, but all of us here in and around Pensacola/Mobile better not get lulled into thinking this is a NOLA event when we wake up this morning. Better to get boards up now while there's no wind than tomorrow when conditions could be much worse.

[BamaMan]

I agree chrisnnavarre, but after reading Derek's commentary in the PNJ, "It is very important to remember that a hurricane is not a point. If this track holds, there would be nearly complete destruction for the Mississippi and Alabama coasts as well, as well as tidal surges higher than those experienced in Hurricane Georges for the Pensacola area, because this is expected to make landfall as a category 4 hurricane, while Georges was a category 2 hurricane at landfall ".
and as all of us know about the Nort and East side of these storms, itwould be very bad for many from NOLA to Pensacola. IMHO

[FritzPaul]

0.6 degrees == 36 minutes: 1 degree == 60 minutes.

[chrisnnavarre]

Opps sorry I'll edit.. I mean .6 degrees...

[mobilebay]

You may be right Chris. The 06 GFS is already East of the 00Z run through 30 hours. Looks like a Mississippi hit on this run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif

[HollynLA]

I'm not sure what you're looking at but looking at the satellite, it appears she has actually dropped just a tad south of her previous forecast point. They are expecting it to start climping latitude around 1pm today.

[dixiebreeze]

The models are likely to begin shifting easterly later today. How far east is the big question.

[BamaMan]

Don't yall think though seriously that landfall anywhere from NOLA/Grand Isle to the AL/MS line is still going to be bad for all along the LA/MS/AL, and even the far western panhandle areas? Not a whole lot of miles between them. maybe 210 or so, from NOLA to Pensacola?

[FritzPaul]

Opps sorry I'll edit.. I mean .6 degrees...

Cool I knew what you meant with the (.6).

[linkerweather]

Interesting with the GFS this morning.....

Here is the 48 hour from the 00z run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif


Here is the 42 hour from the 06z run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_042l.gif

60 hour from the 00z run had landfall SSW of NOLA
54 hour from the 06z run has landfall near MS/AL border

[mobilebay]

Looks like it's going into Mississippi. The East shift has begun.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[mtm4319]

Looks like it's going into Mississippi. The East shift has begun.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

Now it's not getting better for Mobile by the hour.

[BamaMan]

Not looking good for many of us on the coast I'm afraid

[mobilebay]

Looks like it's going into Mississippi. The East shift has begun.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

Now it's not getting better for Mobile by the hour.

Also the ETA has kicked it's crack habbit and has a simular 06Z run. I still say Biloxi/Guilfport landfall. With this East shift you can bet your bottum dollar that the GFDL, and BAMM models will slide East later this morning.

[Huckster]

Just curious, for you folks thinking it might head into Miss/AL, why do you think this is the case? If the tropical models shift east, do you think they'll stop, and if so, why? What's to say they won't shift all the way back to Panama City? I admit, I am not brave enough to speculate where it will go, just wondering what some of the reasoning is here.

[MJA]

I have no knowledge of this stuff but I am concerned about this storm swinging NE at the last minute, ala Ivan and Dennis. Living in Mobile, I wasn't overly concerned until I saw the LA/MS forecast.

[timNms]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the models shift back and forth somewhat until closer to the time of landfall. I don't think there will be another wide swing in either direction, but I do think there will be slight shifts eastward/westward in the next day or two.
It does appear that the models are in better agreement as they have become more closely clustered toward a centralized landfall location. The closer we get to the time of landfall, the more worried I become!

[BamaMan]

Definitley looking bad for LA/MS/AL areas

[gulfcoastdave]

I just posted something to this degree..........Models shift and shift again

Look at what Ivamn did and Dennis

we can not say this storm will do tehesame bit.......a degree here and a degree there adds up....... models have already begun a slight east move but overall they are in better agreement........... look at the models pointing at a ms/al hit by 11 pm tonight and an al/fl hit by sunday.............................. I hope I am wrong but I am going back to Ortt's early forecast calling for a Mobile to Destin hit.

This in no wishcast trust me.......my area has had too many storms . I am just looking at all the data and thinking long term and not now.

we shall all see in a few days

I just hope the whole central coast is watching

remember opal and how she grew.........just look at Ivan last year and his turn and then Dennis

lets all be ready

[NorthGaWeather]

I don't put much stock in the "off runs" 6z and 18z. 12z will be interesting but a SE LA/MS landfall looks most likely attm.