Invest 90L=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

[Scorpion]

Florida could have a problem with this... although its WAY too early to think about this system.

[cycloneye]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING... AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

5:30 TWO

It looks like TD 13 is around the corner.

[TampaFl]

[krysof]

TD 13 should of been here when 97L was in it's best state for days. This one won't be anything as long as Katrina's here. The NHC is disregarding these things.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... T=1km_zoom

It looks like a TD already.

[KatDaddy]

Cant even think about another system currently. Overload on Katrina

[cycloneye]

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC WAVE ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 18N NOW MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THIS
WAVE NEAR 11N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W. LITTLE POCKETS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

8 AM discussion.

[johngaltfla]

I can see TD13 by 2300 tonight. If it holds together all day and continues to develop like it has been the last 24 hours.

I do not like where it is forming. This is not boding well for the SE U.S. if it becomes a storm just east of the Lesser Antilles in the next 24 hours.

[krysof]

There's also a large ball of convection which is 97L I think.

[cycloneye]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS CENTERED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOWS SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.



11:30 AM TWO.

We can see TD13 tonight or tommorow.

[cjrciadt]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS CENTERED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOWS SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.



11:30 AM TWO.

We can see TD13 tonight or tommorow.

Thanks Lee from 90L before 97L amazing.
Also this is where Ivan, Cindy, and Dennis all formed we all now how that turned out.

[krysof]

The NHC said the same thing about a depression forming the next day, but it never did. After Katrina ends, the tropics will quiet down a lot. Since September's coming up, hurricane season will be coming to an end, at least the active periods. 11 named storms currently, i think a couple are definite. Final should be 14 to 15.

[BigA]

I honestly cant see the tropics quieting down in September. September is historically the most active month the whole year for hurricanes. Perhaps only 3 or 4 more storms will form, but I think it will be a higher number

[cycloneye]

SAT Imagery


You can see the system 90L at center of pic

[cycloneye]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

A good loop of system which looks like it is well organized right now as it moves west to westnorthwest.

[Florida_TSR]

Conditions still favor the 22 total storms predicted by tropical storm risk.

[cycloneye]

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT
WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. THIS WAVE WAS
OBSERVED IN THE DAKAR UPPER AIR DATA AROUND 12Z AUG 25...OR
ABOUT 2 DAYS AGO. THE ACTUAL SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE WAVE
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG 35W...BUT THE STRUCTURE OF THE WAVE
HAS BEEN TILTED WEST WITH HEIGHT SO THE PRESENT POSITION IS A
COMPROMISE OF THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. A BAND OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING TO THE S/SW OF
THE LOW FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 37W-44W...WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 32W-45W. NOW THAT THE TSTM
ACTIVITY IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


2 PM Discussion.

[stormandan28]

it looks like some of the models are trying to curve it out to sea?

[krysof]

where can I find the model guidance for it?

[Fego]

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