Is the turn beginning finally?

[Steve]

Mike,

Have you looked at the pending onslaught though? Check out the flow from the Pacific and the positively tilted trough north of the system.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/

Click Water Vapor
duration = 12 hours (or 3 or 4 if you don't have memory resources)
click on Contiguous U.S.

Battle of the titanic upper airmasses

Steve

[btangy]

500mb heights dropping along the gulf coast. This is the first time I've seen sub-590dm heights since Katrina emerged into the Gulf. So, the ridge is weakening. However, there is still deep layer northerly flow along the Gulf Coast, so, that should keep Katrina from making any sharp turns toward the N, but I do feel any S-ly component of motion will be ending shortly, if it hasn't already.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_500.gif

[deltadog03]

i agree bt, i think the s'ly track should stop...and be done with part...i DO see the west track continuing for awhile do to the ridge is still farily strong...and the flow is still north to south on the eastern gulf...time will tell

[wjs3]

Btangy, Steve:

Nice analysis, guys. You can clearlysee the negatively tilted trough in the WV and I hadn't been keeping track of the heights on the gulf coast. Can't imagine that those heights can hold up with that troffing. It'll be interesting to watch those 500MB heights (and wind direction/speed) as the day progresses.

Thanks for the observations, links & analysis!

[Nimbus]

The 11 AM mentioned a ridge further east over Florida forming which would allow recurve along the current model tracks.

Looks like a high pressure dome is building over Katrina which often happens with intense hurricanes.

The trough pushing east across Texas might not be able to provide much shear if this dome keeps expanding but, its too early to forecast.