East Shift??

gk1 · #1 Postby **gk1** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:29 am

The east shift in models may give Emergency Manager Officials in SE La a false sense of security and may delay evacuation plans, (if indeed any was to occur). What puzzles me is that Jeff Parish evac. for a storm that was never projected to come with 2 states away and did it fairly early.

TS Zack · #2 Postby **TS Zack** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:33 am

The NHC probably won't shift much.

#3 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:34 am

look at the nws/ mobile update!!

#4 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:34 am

Probably to the Mississippi coastline. But this will be too close to call, I'm afraid.

HurryKane · #5 Postby **HurryKane** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:35 am

deltadog03 wrote:look at the nws/ mobile update!!

link?

#6 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:35 am

clustered around alabama line now only 1 model in lousiana now...that said...you new orleans folks.DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN AT ALL!!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

#7 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:36 am

From Mobile/P'cola NWS morning discussion:

BUT THERE ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING TRACK OF KATRINA...BASICALLY HINGING ON THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING COORDINATION CONFERENCE CALL...THERE IS SOME THOUGHT THAT THE RIDGE MAY NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS HAS BEEN RECENTLY ADVERTISED... WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN KATRINA MAKING LANDFALL EVEN FARTHER TO THE WEST

stormspotter · #8 Postby **stormspotter** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:37 am

deltadog03 wrote:look at the nws/ mobile update!!

What update, is there something new since their 4am discussion?

#9 Postby **feederband** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:38 am

BUT THERE ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING TRACK OF KATRINA...

Thats a understatement..........

CYCLONE MIKE · #10 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:39 am

ivanhater, the only one of those that is correct the UKMET. The other ones have her moving wnw already especially the GFS

#11 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 8:42 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:ivanhater, the only one of those that is correct the UKMET. The other ones have her moving wnw already especially the GFS

im just posting the new graphic.....everyone needs to prepare

tw861 · #12 Postby **tw861** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 9:04 am

The thing is, Those BAM's are run off of a GFS background. If the 6z GFS shifts east all the models that are run off of it will probably shift east also including the GFDL.

How is the GFS 6z performing when compared to the current position and track ? Looks to me it had the storm moving to the WNW or NW and of course as of now, 6 hours later shes still moving west.

MrsParker · #13 Postby **MrsParker** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 9:09 am

People the models still converge over Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana then going east. Plaquemines is minutes from N.O. Your post is misleading

#14 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 9:10 am

good point TW...and that above statement by the nws pns/mob...tells me that the ridge is hold tough to some degree...and they have more knowledge than me...and more insite to the nhc

tw861 · #15 Postby **tw861** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 9:14 am

deltadog03 wrote:good point TW...and that above statement by the nws pns/mob...tells me that the ridge is hold tough to some degree...and they have more knowledge than me...and more insite to the nhc

Also it's well known that the GFS seems to always weaken the ridge and try to turn storms too quickly.

Who knows where shes headed. But if I were in New Orleans, I would sure be thinking about getting out.

#16 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 9:16 am

right...gfs loooooves to break down ridges waaay too early...that was evident last night when it was told they were 30dm too weak at 500mb on the ridge...i do agree the ridge is shifting slightly west...but, it has not really weakend much...time will tell...

wxmann_91 · #17 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 9:20 am

tw861 wrote:The thing is, Those BAM's are run off of a GFS background. If the 6z GFS shifts east all the models that are run off of it will probably shift east also including the GFDL.

How is the GFS 6z performing when compared to the current position and track ? Looks to me it had the storm moving to the WNW or NW and of course as of now, 6 hours later shes still moving west.

The 6Z shifted right, so yeah I can see why many of the other models did. I'd disregard the 6Z, much more like the 12Z and 0Z where models are initialized better and there's more data. If a trend shows again though I'd be worried in Pcola.

goodlife · #18 Postby **goodlife** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 9:24 am

tw861 wrote:The thing is, Those BAM's are run off of a GFS background. If the 6z GFS shifts east all the models that are run off of it will probably shift east also including the GFDL.

How is the GFS 6z performing when compared to the current position and track ? Looks to me it had the storm moving to the WNW or NW and of course as of now, 6 hours later shes still moving west.

That's a big problem and why I'm not putting too much stock into that run....we'll see if they correct their initialization in the 12z run

gulfcoastdave · #19 Postby **gulfcoastdave** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 9:27 am

I have to support Ivanhater. We are still days away from landfall and the track will change. We all have to be prepared.

I agree about the models and we need to see what this evening holds with the models. I would think the NHC would change their path, if at all , until the 11 pm IMO

Ixolib · #20 Postby **Ixolib** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 9:36 am

Based on everyone's input, is it going:

To N.O.?
West of N.O.?
MS Coast?
AL Coast?
FL Coast?

Too confused this am. Can somebody clear this up once and for all? East, West???

East Shift??

East Shift??

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