We may have a cat 5 on our hands!! no doubt

[mtm4319]

Bump. With the rise in pressure, cat 5 is looking more unlikely to me.

I wouldn't drop the consideration yet. It's just a little ERC before she bombs again (another 44mbs over next 24 hrs ) I voted borderline 4/5 myself, though.

It's certainly not out of the question, but I'd break it down as follows:

15% chance of a cat 5 (a bit higher than what NHC has it)
60% chance of a cat 4
20% chance of a cat 3
5% chance of a cat 2 or weaker at landfall.

[Steve Cosby]

5's require such a perfect confluence of environmental conditions that it just doesn't seem likely. Also, the weakening trend of the storms hitting the central gulf coast this year is in the back of my mind.

That said, NEXRAD's analysis relating to high oceanic conductivity may well bear out. In that case, if other influences are less than optimal, this potential for increased convective activity in that location will push Katrina over the edge to being a Category 5. (See http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71575)

Steve

[WindRunner]

Bump. With the rise in pressure, cat 5 is looking more unlikely to me.

I wouldn't drop the consideration yet. It's just a little ERC before she bombs again (another 44mbs over next 24 hrs ) I voted borderline 4/5 myself, though.

It's certainly not out of the question, but I'd break it down as follows:

15% chance of a cat 5 (a bit higher than what NHC has it)
60% chance of a cat 4
20% chance of a cat 3
5% chance of a cat 2 or weaker at landfall.

Yeah, that looks about right.

[oneness]

Bump. With the rise in pressure, cat 5 is looking more unlikely to me.

That transient fluctuation in pressure is the pressure version of wobble-itis. Look at the trend of the measured recent details, and then at the measured and projected conditions, then the official forecast.

This is Russian roulette.

Don’t get mesmerised or paralysed by it, just move out of the way in time. Drowning is awful, and realising that all hope is lost and that your last living act will be to deeply breathe in muddy water is not what you want come Monday morning. Don't guess, don't gamble, just evacuate. Good luck.

[wayoutfront]

stong cat 4/boarderline cat 5

is there a weak cat 4?

If she tracks 100 miles east or 100 miles west of current model cluster I would say cat 3

Bump. With the rise in pressure, cat 5 is looking more unlikely to me.

once the ewrc is complete , it will drop extemely fast. back to the 940 range..

[cjrciadt]

Look at Ivan:http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200409.asp
From 948 up to 968, then marching to 910 peak, with cooler water BTW.

[Scorpion]

Well for what its worth, GFDL gives it 916 mb.

[cjrciadt]

Well for what its worth, GFDL gives it 916 mb.

Just saved the image, very historic if it pans out.

[smashmode]

okay who are the folks who are picking 170-200+ mph?

any reason for this type of speculation? other than trolling?

[ConvergenceZone]

It's just going through the typical eyewall replacement cycle right now. Pressure often rises a bit and winds drop a bit during this time, but then they come back stronger than ever.

[The Big Dog]

okay who are the folks who are picking 170-200+ mph?

any reason for this type of speculation? other than trolling?

Well... notice they're not posting anything?