How far out will the effects be felt?

[evalea]

Forgive my complete newbie status, although I've lurked here for a while., I'm a complete hurricane novice, I moved to Lafayette, LA, 2 years ago, from the UK - you can't get any more clueless about 'canes that that! I'm just wondering how far out the effects will be felt from the hurricane. I know that NO is in the bulleye as of the latest runs, but how far out from the track should people be making preps, tying down launchables outside, etc.

What in the way of weather can people who won't evacuate (if they aren't in an evac zone) expect to experience?

Thanks

[WindRunner]

That depends on the wind radii when the storm comes ashore. How far out the winds are going to stretch is always a tough call, but generally I'd say that around landfall the TS wind radii should be around 160-200 mi, moreso to the east.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

TS gusts in squalls have already been felt over 200 mi. from center.

Downtown St.pete in Tampa Bay reported gusts to 50 mph with an
earlier squall.

[EDR1222]

Her windfield is definately expanding. There could be Tropical storm force winds felt a good well away from the center.

[milankovitch]

This is a map based on a model run using the NHC track as the input.

[mtm4319]

Here's an estimation on the Crown Weather page using Global Tracks software:

[Florida_brit]

There this map too!

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/forecast/AL122005ltsz.gif

However, Tampa is reporting winds of over 50mph at the moment so am pretty sure the effects wil be felt further than are predicted! Key West was to a few hours ago still experiencing winds of 40mph!

[KBBOCA]

Here are some links you all in Lafayette can use to help you figure out what the impact might be:

1) How close can it get
http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

The current results for Lafayette based on 5 p.m. advisory are:
Results for 30.2N, 92.03W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 29.9N, 89.9W or about 127.4 miles (205.0 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the eye will be at that location is in about 49.4 hours.

2) Trop. Storm Wind Probabilities:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... d120?large

3) Hurricane Wind Probabilities
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l?hwind120

[KBBOCA]

Evalea, one more link that might be helpful:

The current windfield of the storm. It will help you check if the windfield is expanding and which quadrant has the worst winds.

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_field.asp

[evalea]

Wow, some awesome and very useful links. They have been bookmarked! Thanks so much.

I guess we may have a fair bit of blustery weather if it holds it current forecasted track. If it shifts any more west, we may have to be a lot more worried.

All that we'd need right now if we had to do a major prep, is fill the generator, top of the gas cans, grab some ice and a couplafew cases of beer. Now I know how to estimate how far down prep path we need to go! Thanks!