My thoughts...Surreal Worst Case Scenario Unfolding

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This Hurricane is doing everything right....perfectly. This is the scenario that we have feared for many, many years.

It moved across the smallest, most wet area of Florida, kept it's inner core...blew back up to 100 mph, and is now a major hurricane.

The eyewall replacement cycle is occuring at just the right time...we will have a huge eye by tonight, and this thing will deepen at a rapid rate in the next 24-48 hours. Probably 130 kt...or 150 mph by landfall near New Orleans, LA. A large, Category 4 or 5 Hurricane into the North Gulf Coast.

Be prepared, New Orleans....I think this is the Big One.

[WindRunner]

Wow. That is sobering here that from you.

BTW, how's the laptop coming? Recovering much?

[HollynLA]

I can honestly say, without a doubt, that this is the first time I've EVER been truly "scared" about an approaching storm. My thoughts are not very good right now to the point where I'm about sick thinking of the aftermath of this. It's almost like a bad dream.

[ROCK]

I can honestly say, without a doubt, that this is the first time I've EVER been truly "scared" about an approaching storm. My thoughts are not very good right now to the point where I'm about sick thinking of the aftermath of this. It's almost like a bad dream.

get off the PC and leave NOW.......

[Opal storm]

What would be just as devastating would be a unpredicted turn towards an area that thinks their out of the woods and un-prepared for a cat 4/5 hurricane.Such as a sudden turn towards the west towards western LA or a turn towards the east to the Florida panhandle.

[x-y-no]

I can honestly say, without a doubt, that this is the first time I've EVER been truly "scared" about an approaching storm. My thoughts are not very good right now to the point where I'm about sick thinking of the aftermath of this. It's almost like a bad dream.

That's the sane and reasonable reaction to this thing.

Please, evacuate now. And my prayers are with you and everyone else in the path of this monster.

[inotherwords]

I think the one thing we have to be thankful for, if that's even possible in this scenario, is that there's been a couple of days notice so that evacuations can take place.

My thoughts are with all of you in that area, good luck and get movin' now.

[Swimdude]

This is the first time i've been scared for the people that this storm will effect. I mean... Evacuations of Jefferson Perish... I know enough about Louisiana and New Orleans that they want 1.5 million people out of there.

We've dodged that "Worst Case Scenario" long enough. It has to come some day. We worried with hurricane Georges, which was mighty close, in 1998.

[WindRunner]

I think the one thing we have to be thankful for, if that's even possible in this scenario, is that there's been a couple of days notice so that evacuations can take place.

My thoughts are with all of you in that area, good luck and get movin' now.

Yes, we must be thankful that this occured in this era and not twenty years ago even. Techonology has saved so many lives.

[Florida_TSR]

I'd say a CAT 5 is almost likely before landfall now. Nothing but bad news ahead of this storm - hot water and no shear.

[skysummit]

I cannot believe how big she is getting. The pressure is still falling and the winds are still 115. She's getting a lot better organized and when she's finished with her eyewall development, things will explode.

[goodlife]

yeah...you should see the traffic cams in New Orleans....they're getting the contraflow going....but in places the traffic is gridlocked....it's going to get worse and it's going to be a MESS

[djtil]

a couple positives (in a long list of negatives) before we really go all out on the hollywood movie off the week catastrophe.

1. new orleans is over 50 miles from the coast of landfall....this isnt the ne eyewall coming in from the ese scenario....no she may not weaken much but ocean surge will be limited to the coast......the lake ponch theories may get a workout.

2. this storm has never been above 115mph yet.....true...it seems to be strengthening but crowning it cat 5 status right now is a little ambitious.

3. it still has times to max out again and then undergo another erc before landfall.

4. recent history in the north gulf coast...opal...lili...dennis...ivan.....none were walks in the park but all significantly weakened from their max before making landfall.

[Florida_TSR]

Well water temps are near or exceed record values. There is a big strong high pressure providing no shear. This is NOT the same situation as Ivan etc. This is the worst possible situation. It will be a CAT 4 by tomorrow morning - and the water gets even warmer with near calm upper level winds!

[Brent]

4. recent history in the north gulf coast...opal...lili...dennis...ivan.....none were walks in the park but all significantly weakened from their max before making landfall.

and there are numerous ones that didn't...

Camille for one which looks VERY disturbingly similar.

[JenyEliza]

yeah...you should see the traffic cams in New Orleans....they're getting the contraflow going....but in places the traffic is gridlocked....it's going to get worse and it's going to be a MESS

Goodlife--are you evacuating? Please be safe and do whatever it takes to stay that way. Things can be replaced--you and your family can't.

Thinking of and praying for you.

Jeny

[johngaltfla]

I can honestly say, without a doubt, that this is the first time I've EVER been truly "scared" about an approaching storm. My thoughts are not very good right now to the point where I'm about sick thinking of the aftermath of this. It's almost like a bad dream.

get off the PC and leave NOW.......

Ditto. The engineers thought they could build a structure that could survive 200 mph winds. Your home is not. This is what the engineers thought they could build to survive an Andrew or Katrina at Homestead AFB:

[johngaltfla]

yeah...you should see the traffic cams in New Orleans....they're getting the contraflow going....but in places the traffic is gridlocked....it's going to get worse and it's going to be a MESS

GET OUT! Go to Arkansas or the Memphis area. Get away from there ASAP.

[goodlife]

wow Jeny...didn't expect to see you here....

As of right now we're not evacuating....although we just got word we are now under mandatory evacs...still watching and waiting.
Gene and Lee are on their own at Hannity for a few days!! lol

[xraymike1]

Go west. Doesn't matter that NO is 50 mile from the Gulf. On the east side of NO is Lake Ponchartrain and Bretno Sound. If you look at a map
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/us_2001/ ... f_2001.pdf
you will see that the city can experience storm surge and has before. That has been always one of the fears. Storm coming up the river that bring water up the gulf into Lake Ponchartrain and then surging both of them over the leeves.