Keeping the storm in perspective...

[NEXRAD]

I'm reading a tremendous number of "doom and gloom" posts, from members and "experts" alike. Can we keep this storm in perspective?

Last year, when Hurricane Charley suddenly deepened to 145-mph and took its turn towards Port Charlotte, with a track aiming at metro Orlando, the local news media blasted viewers with all manner of conferences. I'll never forget the speech given by the Orange County Commissioner (Orlando). When asked what he wanted people in his jurisdiction to do, he responded, "Spend time with your family today." That really struck me as frightening and sad. People were expecting a horrific storm that would leave a path of ruin from Port Charlotte to Lakeland to Orlando and to Daytona Beach. Charley came. Charley went. Charley left a lot of damage and clean-up, but the tragedy that everyone thought we were going to endure never quite materialized.

I recall that as the storm was passing over Orlando, the news media seemed almost jovial about it. The 100-mph wind gusts reported at MCO weren't all that bad. Yes, Charley caused much damage, but the storm did not utterly devastate. Even at its landfall point in Port Charlotte. I recall how several weeks after the storm, life had returned to some normality. Sure, many things had changed and there was damage still awaiting insurance estimates, but people survived. Life continued.

Now, I see many of the same fearful cries about Katrina as I did with Charley. Yes, Katrina is forecast to become a very strong hurricane. Yes the potential exists for significant damage. Yes the storm will be life-threatening to those who fail to take proper precautions. But, when the storm gasps its last 34-knot wind gust, rains itself out over the Appalachians, and becomes another squiggly line on a tracking chart, life will go on. We'll still be able to fly into New Orleans, Mardi Gras will dance away the nights. No matter how the storm may change things, life will go on.

Be safe.

- Jay
KSC FL

[azsnowman]

Well said Jay, HEY.....check your PM dude!

Dennis

[djtil]

people tend to equate hurricanes with f5 tornados.....the only true incomprehensible weather force on earth.

[loon]

people tend to equate hurricanes with f5 tornados.....the only true incomprehensible weather force on earth.

HAHAHAHHAA, wow, those people in Homestead must have been on crack or something when they saw their homes...LOL

I rate this post as POST OF THE MONTH...lol

that was great, thanks djtil..

cheers,
loon

[djtil]

we can compare photos of jarrell, tx and homestead anytime...

[krysof]

imagine if hurricane winds could reach f5 tornado winds, everything would be destroyed, every building, every object, anyone caught

[loon]

Are you telling me a Flatten, nothing but foundation house looks different in Texas than in Florida? I'll admit close to 300mph is different than 155mph but there is a point that nothing is going to make it. However, sure, lets compare photos...

cheers,
loon

[NEXRAD]

I'd like to point that the hurricane codes that existed in the early 90's were far different than those today, at least for Florida building codes.

- Jay
KSC FL

[djtil]

its your house....you get to choose an f5 tornado or ne eyewall.

GO.

[ConvergenceZone]

absolutely EXCELLENT post Jay. I've felt the same way, but I don't have the gift of expressing it so cohesively like you do.

[loon]

Again, there will be nothing but foundation if, lets say, worst case, ne eyewall, 180-200mph, so, give me tornado, as I can get back to my pile of rubble without waiting for water to drain away. Now you go.

cheers,
loon

[RichG]

The difference is getting hit by a semi or a train. They both will take you out.

[lurkerinthemidst]

I'm reading a tremendous number of "doom and gloom" posts, from members and "experts" alike. Can we keep this storm in perspective?

Last year, when Hurricane Charley suddenly deepened to 145-mph and took its turn towards Port Charlotte, with a track aiming at metro Orlando, the local news media blasted viewers with all manner of conferences. I'll never forget the speech given by the Orange County Commissioner (Orlando). When asked what he wanted people in his jurisdiction to do, he responded, "Spend time with your family today." That really struck me as frightening and sad. People were expecting a horrific storm that would leave a path of ruin from Port Charlotte to Lakeland to Orlando and to Daytona Beach. Charley came. Charley went. Charley left a lot of damage and clean-up, but the tragedy that everyone thought we were going to endure never quite materialized.

I recall that as the storm was passing over Orlando, the news media seemed almost jovial about it. The 100-mph wind gusts reported at MCO weren't all that bad. Yes, Charley caused much damage, but the storm did not utterly devastate. Even at its landfall point in Port Charlotte. I recall how several weeks after the storm, life had returned to some normality. Sure, many things had changed and there was damage still awaiting insurance estimates, but people survived. Life continued.

Now, I see many of the same fearful cries about Katrina as I did with Charley. Yes, Katrina is forecast to become a very strong hurricane. Yes the potential exists for significant damage. Yes the storm will be life-threatening to those who fail to take proper precautions. But, when the storm gasps its last 34-knot wind gust, rains itself out over the Appalachians, and becomes another squiggly line on a tracking chart, life will go on. We'll still be able to fly into New Orleans, Mardi Gras will dance away the nights. No matter how the storm may change things, life will go on.

Be safe.

- Jay
KSC FL

Yes life went on however you speak to the people who still after a year are struggling. You think of the people that " life goes on for" that had their marriages break up over the stress. The domestic abuse that went on, the children that had to have major counseling to just function. Life went on but not in the same way as it did before.

I am not for the doom and gloom either. But as for the " life goes on" it does for everyone else but in a different way for the people that were effected by the storm. Lives change from things like this. Everyone be safe!

[caribepr]

No matter how the storm may change things, life will go on.


KSC FL

Well...it will for some of us. I guess the others won't be talking about it.

[Eyes2theSkies]

Jay, that was the best post of the day. Life will go on

[charley]

We'll still be able to fly into New Orleans, Mardi Gras will dance away the nights. No matter how the storm may change things, life will go on.

Unless, of course, the "gloom & doom" scenario actually occurs and New Orleans gets flooded & turned into a toxic lake for weeks or months. Or, of course, if you or someone you know gets killed in the storm. Then, well....life may not go on, or definitely not in even remotely the same way.

You have no way of knowing the outcome of this storm, and I would prefer to read a bunch of "gloom & doom" posts than those that completely minimize the potential disaster that could occur. If the "gloom & doom" people are wrong, then GREAT!! We all can chuckle at their worry AFTER THE FACT! But far better to assume the worst and be prepared than to minimize, adopt a laid-back attitude, and potentially mislead others who are in the "cone of danger" into thinking there's nothing to worry about. JMO.

[xraymike1]

Having been born in Fla. and having a father that was an storm adjuster for over 50 years I have see the photos of Betsy and Camille and numerous tornadoes over the years. I have also had the experience of Betsy as a 5 yo., Tornadoes at 13 and the last years hurricanes. The best thing about hurricanes is most of the time you have at least 24 hours of warning. Although with Katrina it was just a little more than that. Luckily for me the storm never turned over, Meaning the most of the storm stayed on the southeast quadrant.

The main difference between Orlando and New Orleans is the fact that Orlando is surround by land and New Orleans by water!! I lived in New Orleans for 4 years in college and went thru 2 floods and that was just caused by some good old thunderstorms. I has been one of the worst nightmares for people that live in NO that a hurricane come up the Mississippi and cause both the river and Lake Pochatrain to overflow the leeves. On some of the other threads you will see what I mean. It has nothing to do with doom and gloom but with looking up and not sticking your head in the sand. I was still there I would already be leaving and if it cost me my job so be it.

My brother is there in the National Guard and with my nephew there I am keeping a very close watch on Katrina. This might be the one that NO is dreading.

[3rdEyeOutFlow]

JMHO...What was the point of the life goes on post? Is that a comforting thought? Realizing the potential of loss is not doom and gloom. It is rather cavalier to suggest that everyone should just calm down and say, "oh well...life goes on." Sometimes a little nervousness can be good, to get you MOVING, taking action, being a little pro-active instead of the what ever happens happens philosophy.

[NEXRAD]

I concur that it is important to expect a very bad situation from Katrina, however the armeggedon pictures that seem to be touted so carelessly really don't help anyone. These enhance stress and reduce people's abilities to make clear and potentially life-saving decisions.

Sensible advice and sensible description of the storm's potential impacts are much more valuable than making statements referencing that New Orleans will effectively no longer exist.

Lurkerinthemist, I am very sorry for those who have had such experiences. Note that such is more psychological than meteorological in aspect, however. This is certainly not to say that it's any less tragic for those who suffer from it. Again, I am sorry.

- Jay
KSC FL

[NEXRAD]

JMHO...What was the point of the life goes on post? Is that a comforting thought? Realizing the potential of loss is not doom and gloom. It is rather cavalier to suggest that everyone should just calm down and say, "oh well...life goes on." Sometimes a little nervousness can be good, to get you MOVING, taking action, being a little pro-active instead of the what ever happens happens philosophy.

Nervousness and action are one thing. Panic and hysteria are another. The latter tends to cause violence and get people killed.

- Jay
KSC FL