Keeping the storm in perspective...

[Cape Verde]

Diminishing the impact of this storm even before it makes its second landfall as a major hurricane this time is pollyanna at best.

Sure, the doom and gloom can be overhyped, but so can the "what me worry" attitude on the other extreme.

Right now, Katrina looks poised to be the worst natural disaster in our country's history. Things may change in the next day and a half that will prevent that from happening.

Now is not the time to be minimizing the storm or its impact.

[3rdEyeOutFlow]

Well then...we have gloom and doom panic on one side...on the other side you seem to suggest an about face, a total disregard for the potentiality of loss, a life altering event. It might be that both of us are on coomon ground and are just looking at it from different sides.

[Florida_TSR]

Nexrad you are off the mark big time. This is a CAT 4/5 in the making that has a very good chance of making a direct hit on New Orleans. Storm surge of 18 feet possible. This is not hype but reality. Those that don't take this seriously will die if it moves as forecasted now. Did you hear that? Those that don't leave will die if it continues on the current track. Other hurricanes just can't be compared to this situation. Those that make comparisions look foolish.

[caribepr]

Well then...we have gloom and doom panic on one side...on the other side you seem to suggest an about face, a total disregard for the potentiality of loss, a life altering event. It might be that both of us are on coomon ground and are just looking at it from different sides.

Interestingly to me, now that the threat has gotten very real, I don't sense doom and gloom *panic* here...I sense a very serious, sober look at what could be an unmitigated disaster and what each will choose to do about it. Doubtless, there are many NOT online this moment taking care of business (and wisely so if they haven't already). Any *panic* seems to be from those not in the areas of getting hit, understandable in the *wishing to do something feeling so frustrated* sense but not helpful.
The post here just seemed more of a panic on the other side to me - with a bit of callousness that was/is offensive to many who have lost, or fear losing what makes up the daily round of their lives. Nothing to argue with on that is there?

[LSU2001]

JMHO...What was the point of the life goes on post? Is that a comforting thought? Realizing the potential of loss is not doom and gloom. It is rather cavalier to suggest that everyone should just calm down and say, "oh well...life goes on." Sometimes a little nervousness can be good, to get you MOVING, taking action, being a little pro-active instead of the what ever happens happens philosophy.

Nervousness and action are one thing. Panic and hysteria are another. The latter tends to cause violence and get people killed.

- Jay
KSC FL

I agree that panic and hysteria are not at all needed in a situation like this, However, many people in South La. are taking a wait and see attitude because of the close calls through the years, Camile, Georges, Ivan, Isidore, Opal, Etc. Many believe that this storm will go east and not affect NOLA. I even read a post today about NOLA TV personalities saying an east strike is probable as early as this morning. NOLA is not FLORIDA it is not Mississippi or Alabama. the topography surrounding NOLA is unique on the gulf coast. 50 miles of marsh will do little to slow down this storm and the surge will be unbelievable. There are about 1.5 million people in harms way so if a few doom and gloom posts get people off their butts and make them reconsider their "Plans" to ride out the storm then they are a good thing.
Remember 50 people died in NOLA in 1965 during Betsy, most in their attics due to drowning. The went to the attic trying to escape rising flood water and got trapped with no way out. When they tell you to carry an axe into your attic in case you get trapped that truly is a nightmare sceneario. Do we want this to happen a most emphatic no but it is not wise to ignore the real possiblity.

We must err on the side of CAUTION. We will pray for the best and get ready for the worst.
Tim

[3rdEyeOutFlow]

No argument here. Denial...not a healthy attitude.

[sweetpea]

Well then...we have gloom and doom panic on one side...on the other side you seem to suggest an about face, a total disregard for the potentiality of loss, a life altering event. It might be that both of us are on coomon ground and are just looking at it from different sides.

Interestingly to me, now that the threat has gotten very real, I don't sense doom and gloom *panic* here...I sense a very serious, sober look at what could be an unmitigated disaster and what each will choose to do about it. Doubtless, there are many NOT online this moment taking care of business (and wisely so if they haven't already). Any *panic* seems to be from those not in the areas of getting hit, understandable in the *wishing to do something feeling so frustrated* sense but not helpful.
The post here just seemed more of a panic on the other side to me - with a bit of callousness that was/is offensive to many who have lost, or fear losing what makes up the daily round of their lives. Nothing to argue with on that is there?

Great post. I have been sitting here all day just reading posts and getting chills when I read about what could happen to NO if it is a direct hit. Peoples lives are going to be changed in such a way that none of us could possibly fathom except for maybe hurricane andrew survivors. I am praying hard that Mother Nature eases off on her path through the gulf. This could be the worst natural disaster in American History and I for one am scared @#$@less for the people in the way.
Debbie

[jes]

I agree with you Nexrad ----- We in Mobile were on the east side of Camille and there wasn't that much damage in Mobile. I remember the eye of Fredrick going over my house. There were many trees down and roofs damaged, but houses were not leveled. My house had no damage --- When Ivan was coming to Mobile many were saying to "get out" and I did--- I went into a panic. I don't think people should tell everyone in a city to leave --- like we'll all surely die. It depends on where you are in that city, how many large trees surround your house, the flood potential of your particular location and how close to the coast you are. There are lots of things to consider. One thing I know for sure ---- most people do not lose their homes and most people do not die even when they stay through a very powerful storm ---- excluding those that stay in areas that flood.

[NEXRAD]

What I am suggesting is that if people take the time to prepare for this event in accordance to what they are being advised by their Emergency Management officials and the National Weather Service, Tropical Prediction Center, then the potential for loss will be minimized. You cannot necessarily prevent all loss, but you can reduce the potential for loss.

Here read this (direct quote) and calm down.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1130 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...HURRICANE SAFETY TIPS...

THINGS TO DO BEFORE THE STORM:

1. CREATE A FAMILY DISASTER PLAN. TALK ABOUT HURRICANES WITH YOUR
FAMILY...ESPECIALLY ANY YOUNG CHILDREN. KNOW THE VULNERABILITY OF
YOUR HOME TO STORM SURGE...FLOODING AND WIND. DECIDE WHICH PART OF
YOUR HOUSE IS SAFEST.

2. REVIEW ALL INSURANCE POLICIES.

3. HAVE A PLACE WHERE VALUABLE PAPERS AND PHOTOGRAPHS CAN BE
KEPT...READY TO BE GRABBED ON SHORT NOTICE. THE BEST WAY TO PREVENT
WATER DAMAGE IS TO STORE THE VALUABLES IN GARBAGE BAGS.

4. PREPARE WINDOW SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD TO COVER DOORS AND WINDOWS.
HAVE ATTACHMENT SUPPLIES ARRANGED FOR QUICK INSTALLATION.

5. CHECK STOCK OF CANNED FOODS...FIRST AID SUPPLIES...DRINKING WATER
AND PRESCRIPTION DRUGS. PLAN FOR AT LEAST A WEEK WITHOUT WATER OR
UTILITIES.

6. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLE AS SERVICE STATIONS WITHOUT POWER WILL BE
CLOSED. THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR CASH FROM ATM MACHINES.

7. PLAN TO EVACUATE EARLY IF YOU LIVE ON THE COASTLINE...IN A MOBILE
HOME...OR A FLOOD PLAIN. KNOW EVACUATION ROUTES. CONTACT FRIENDS
OR RELATIVES WHO LIVE INLAND AND TELL THEM YOU PLAN TO VISIT IF A
HURRICANE APPROACHES. HURRICANES MAKE GREAT EXCUSES FOR VISITING
OUT-OF-TOWN PEOPLE.

8. MAKE PLANS FOR YOUR PETS IF YOU EVACUATE...SINCE ALL SHELTERS AND
MANY HOTELS WILL NOT ACCEPT THEM.

9. GET A WEATHER RADIO WITH BATTERY BACKUP...IT'S YOUR FASTEST
SOURCE FOR WEATHER WARNINGS AND INFORMATION.

AFTER THE STORM:

1. LISTEN TO COMMERCIAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. WAIT UNTIL AN AREA IS
DECLARED SAFE BEFORE ENTERING.

2. ROADS MAY BE CLOSED FOR YOUR PROTECTION. DON'T TRAVEL ACROSS A
FLOODED OR BARRICADED ROAD.

3. CHECK GAS...WATER AND ELECTRICAL LINES AND APPLIANCES FOR
DAMAGE.

4. DO NOT DRINK OR PREPARE FOOD WITH TAP WATER UNTIL YOU ARE CERTAIN
WATER IS NOT CONTAMINATED.

5. AVOID USING CANDLES AND OTHER OPEN FLAMES INDOORS...USE
FLASHLIGHTS INSTEAD.

6. USE THE TELEPHONE TO REPORT LIFE-THREATENING EMERGENCIES ONLY.

7. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IF USING A CHAIN SAW TO CUT FALLEN
TREES. MANY POST-STORM INJURIES ARE THE RESULT OF CHAIN SAW
ACCIDENTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING HURRICANES OR HURRICANE
PREPAREDNESS...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH OR
CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES AT 337-477-5285.

$$

SHAMBURGER
- - - - - - - - - - - -

... Didn't know that this one would cause such a stir. My sincere apologies.

- Jay
KSC FL

[caribepr]

Good last post Nexrad. Thanks.

[inotherwords]

As far as life going on, sure. But the reality is that there are still a lot of blue tarp roofs down in Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte and over in Arcadia. I doubt those people are feeling anything but sheer exhaustion right now combined with fear that the current hurricane season is only halfway over.

Life goes on, sure, but sometimes it takes a lot out of you before it's back to any semblance of normal.

[loon]

so what about the folks that can't get out, no flights, they are in NO on business, can't get a car, can't get anything, so they stay in a hotel, the hotel floods or worse, and they die....because infact the evac orders just went out today for parts of NO and LA....

[NCHurricane]

... Didn't know that this one would cause such a stir. My sincere apologies.

- Jay
KSC FL

No need to apologize, Jay. There are a few posts in here that are over-the-top. One last night (before the mods killed it thankfully) had a subject line of "Bye Bye New Orleans."

The threat of a 4 or 5 in NO is very real. The possible damage of such a storm if it makes a direct ne quad hit is also very real. Be safe, prepare, and don't take a stupid chance and if the threat becomes a reality, you will have a very good chance of surviving with your life.

Great post and discussion.

[Noah]

My mother and several other people that she knows of were put in a hospital for depression after hurricane charely and just the horrific feeling of running from a storm every other week last year, me and my family included, booking hotels ahead of time..i finally kept things in plastic and packed for the whole season ready to split last minute. Any sort of damafe can effect everyone differently..i agree..be prepared be on your guard and try not..i say try not to panic. I believe all the aanxiety over the storms last year kept me prepared..but also can put someone in a hospital over inpending doom..is it coming or not.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I have heard a couple of people who live in N.O. saying that they are going to ride out the storm and I am sure that alot more will be doing the same thing! I have also seen a stat that 20% to 30% of every one who stays will be killed so let me ask you a question! For those 20 or 30% who stay and are killed will life go on? Will their families ever really be complete again? I don't think so! There are so many people who are in denial about this whole thing that they will not be prepaired! There have already been 7 deaths due to Katrina that could have been avoided and we don't need any more! People MUST do everything they need to to be prepaired! This is not the time to be watching and waiting its time for action! This storm might not hit the N.O. area but are you willing to bet your life or the life of your family on it? by this time tomorrow the outter bands of Katrina should be on shore and conditions should be going down hill from there! So pack your bags make your plans and get out of there ASAP! Also don't forget about your pets! God bless you all and my thoughts and prayers are with all those in N.O. and the surrounding area!

[inotherwords]

Last year was a wakeup call for me. I've lived on and off in the Sarasota/Tampa area my whole life, but never really took these storms seriously. Last year I got plywood cut and drilled for all my houses. I made sure to get safety deposit boxes for valuables and learned how to store other important stuff up high and in plastic. I bought a generator. I have 2 weeks worth of water in a freezer in my garage and 2 weeks worth of non-perishable food on hand. I have batteries galore and several kinds of emergency lighting.

Would I be peeing in my pants if a 4 or 5 was looming? Definitely. But I feel I could handle a 1-3 a lot better than I could before 2004. Going through these storms gives you enough information and enough confidence to know what you need to do to be ready. So in some ways it's not a bad thing to go through it on a lesser level. I live in a flood zone, but my house has been here since the '20s and is like iron. So who knows what will happen? At least now I can feel like I understand when to put up shutters and when it's not necessary. I understand what I'll be dealing with if I'm without power for several weeks. I think I understand when I can ride out a storm and when I need to go to a shelter or evacuate to another part of the state. I now understand that my landscape disasters are mostly temporary and will rebound quickly.

In some ways, it's kind of liberating to go through this and survive, because it helps you know how much you're able to handle. The scariest thing is what those poor folks up in NO are dealing with now: they have no idea what's coming, and what's coming is not just a trial run, it's the real thing. Life will go on for them, but for many, life will change for them completely, and it will be a real setback for them. And we need to do what we can to help them because for the grace of God there go all of us in hurricaneland.

[soonertwister]

Will my 767 have pontoons or webbed feet?

[themusk]

Nervousness and action are one thing. Panic and hysteria are another. The latter tends to cause violence and get people killed.

You are aware that research shows the fear of "panic and hysteria" breaking our before a major crisis is more urban myth than fact? When people face life threatening hazards, most ofter either survival instinct kicks in and they focus on doing what they need to do to make it through, or they go into one of several nonproductive denial behaviors. They don't generally panic.

By way of reality check on this: readers are welcome to think back at the times they faced (or believed they faced) a life threatening situation for themselves or their family? Did you panic? Or did you focus like never before in your life (and perhaps fall apart afterwards)? The usual pattern is that if persons are going to have an emotional reaction to the crisis, it's after the danger has passed.

Mass panic, when it occurs, tends to occur in response to imaginary threats ("mass hysteria") or to threats that are not imminent or life threatening. Imaginary and/or minor or distant threats "permit" those persons inclined to panic to do so without apparently endangering themselves. On the other hand, the belief that people do panic in a crisis has led to loss of life as a result of governments refusing to issue adequate warnings or failing to provide sufficient information to make their warnings credible to the public.

[nystate]

Suppose, just for an instant, that for SOME REASON this storm isn't as bad as people are making it out to be. It somehow weakens or hits a sparsely populated area, etc. Then, when the next 'cane comes along, say a Cat 3 towards NOLA, people are bound to stay put because Katrina was supposed to level the entire city and wreck the world economy but didn't.

If it is headed towards you, or you believe it is headed towards you, get out. Listen to the evacuation orders. But be sane. New Orleans isn't going to be wiped off of the map and there probably isn't going to be a killer plague that kills tens of thousands. This isn't "The Day After Tomorrow." This is a hurricane. Treat it like a 'cane and not like a killer asteroid that is going to end life as we know it.

[milankovitch]

There is something that some people aren't picking up on which makes this situation so frightening to me at least, there is no past analog for the scenario that "could" unfold over the next few days. Dennis for example (because I could find the data), an area normally populated by 428,818 saw (according to the model at http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... terep.html) hurricane force winds. If the NHC forcast track verifies there will be 3,273,518 within hurricane force winds. The areas effected by Andrew, Charley, and Ivan made landfall over fairly populated areas, they are sort of a hint at what could happen. But not of these hurricanes made landfall over a major metropolitan area like New Orleans with a population of 1.7 million, this is why I feel comparisons to past hurricanes are misleading.