are ALL of the models ever wrong?

[cat_5]

that is to say, has there ever been a situation recently where a storm does not follow the predicted path of ANY of the models?

[SamSagnella]

Interesting question, I'm hoping that someone with more experience than myself can provide an example, but so far as I know...no.

[wxman57]

Depends on how your define wrong. It's a rare model that is ever exactly right with any forecast. Just 36-48 hours ago, every model was saying Katrina would hit the FL Panhandle, so they were all wrong. The vast majority of current models are wrong, as Katrina will have only 1 track across the Gulf coast. However, one could also argue that almost all the models are "right' in that they're predicting the general area of landfall correctly.

[wxman57]

Depends on how your define wrong. It's a rare model that is ever exactly right with any forecast. Just 36-48 hours ago, every model was saying Katrina would hit the FL Panhandle, so they were all wrong. The vast majority of current models are wrong, as Katrina will have only 1 track across the Gulf coast. However, one could also argue that almost all the models are "right' in that they're predicting the general area of landfall correctly.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

if the storm slows down considerably or stalls... all bets would be off. OFTEN a slow moving or stalled gulf storm has completely duped the models. But this does not seem to be the right synoptic setup to allow for such a stall right now.