Waking up to a cat 5

[jwayne]

Quite frankly, I will be shocked if this is not at that level in less than 12 hours. Sat loop tells the story with this one.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's not going to happen. From the 11:00 PM discussion just out:



<<<Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph with higher gusts.
Katrina is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Katrina
could become a category four hurricane on Sunday.>>>>


So instead of calling for a cat 4 tonight, they changed it to tomorrow, which seems more reasonable being that it's still only a weak cat 3. I still think that potentially it may hit cat 5 for a very short time though.

[ConvergenceZone]

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[ConvergenceZone]

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[ConvergenceZone]

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[cjrciadt]

Cat5 no, 925mb pressure by 9am EDT Yes.

[yangli754]

At 939 mb, what is keeping the max winds speeds from becoming more intense? Does the process of spreading its wind field out sap that much of its strength?

[Steve]

Y'all need to be more patient with posting. The site is running slow, just give it time to process through and we won't get 6 or 7 of the same posts. The mods don't have time to clear all that stuff off.

Just the same, 125 knots might as well be Cat 5 even if it isn't. Someone said earlier what difference does it make besides for the record books? Mabye certain industrial structures would take more of a pounding, but most residences here isn't built to stand up to 140 or 150 mile and hour winds. So what's the difference if someone's house has been reduced to kindlin or if there are partial wall segments still standing?

Anyway, I'm real surprised the track didn't shift farther east. I didn't anticipate the high building in to the east of the system having that effect. I knew it was there but I guess I figured the trof would have more sway than the high on high squeezeplay. I'm going to have to take a really close look at things tomorrow.

Steve

[ConvergenceZone]

So sorry for the duplicate replies. It kept saying "page cannot be displayed" when I hit post, so I assumed that the reply didn't go through, so I kept trying to resend it...weird! Wish their was a way I could delete it, but it says I can't because it's not my post.

[yangli754]

At 939 mb, what is keeping the max winds speeds from becoming more intense? Does the process of spreading its wind field out sap that much of its strength?

[Brent]

It's not going to happen. From the 11:00 PM discussion just out:



<<<Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph with higher gusts.
Katrina is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Katrina
could become a category four hurricane on Sunday.>>>>


So instead of calling for a cat 4 tonight, they changed it to tomorrow, which seems more reasonable being that it's still only a weak cat 3. I still think that potentially it may hit cat 5 for a very short time though.

Maybe because Saturday has less than an hour left??? It could become a Cat 4 at 2am EDT and they be right...

[ROCK]

At 939 mb, what is keeping the max winds speeds from becoming more intense? Does the process of spreading its wind field out sap that much of its strength?

not a MET but from what I have learned on here is that the winds will eventually catch up to the pressure fall. Just a matter of time before they get to the surface. Kat did managed her first ERC thus 949 mb rise earlier today.

[jwayne]

the light of morning is going to bring an amazing and frightening sight. I hope whoever gets hit is ready. stand by the call: cat 5 sunday morning.

[arizonasooner]

I have to admit, the last satellite loop I saw was impressive. And the track was more westerly that I would have thought.

Things may get very frightening in the morning for the residents of SE LA....

[shaggy]

if the NHC admits to having so much trouble with the intensity forecast its even more non-logical for people like us who are mostly ameteurs to try and predict for sure that she will be a cat 5.Not saying its not possible but to many people speak in certainties!

[Swimdude]

It's not going to happen. From the 11:00 PM discussion just out:



<<<Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph with higher gusts.
Katrina is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Katrina
could become a category four hurricane on Sunday.>>>>


So instead of calling for a cat 4 tonight, they changed it to tomorrow, which seems more reasonable being that it's still only a weak cat 3. I still think that potentially it may hit cat 5 for a very short time though.

Maybe because Saturday has less than an hour left??? It could become a Cat 4 at 2am EDT and they be right...

Haha exactly my thoughts! Heck, it's Sunday here!

[jwayne]

I rest my case.

[baitism]

I rest my case.

lol, jwayne serving up crow in the mornin'

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

It's not going to happen. From the 11:00 PM discussion just out:

Someone eats crow....

[Brent]

Good Morning...