Here comes the eye...

[ALhurricane]

I don't know what happened to the main Katrina thread, so I apologize in advance of starting a new thread.

I do believe Katrina is opening her eye...



Not a good sign at all. ERC complete and intensification almost assured.

[southerngreen]

I've been watching that as well - hope the 'sleeping' beauty doesn't wake up in a bad mood.

How can something so scary be so gorgeous.

Looks like you folks in Memphis may get some nasty weather out of it as well. Be safe. We have a house east of Chattanooga and expect flooding there about Tuesday.

[AL Chili Pepper]

How can something so scary be so gorgeous.

I won't even go there.

[Air Force Met]

Latest fix is 936 mb...and moved 3 nm north and 11nm west...

Ain't WOBBLING NW!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How can something so scary be so gorgeous.

I won't even go there.

I believe that its the hand of god. I hope he can show mercy to the people of New orleans.

[ConvergenceZone]

I would be SHOCKED if the winds weren't bumped up with the next advisory. It probably won't be at cat 4 level, but I would guess 125 mph at the 2:00 am advisory. Does that sound about right?. The eyewall replacement cycle looks to be over.

[Stratosphere747]

Latest fix is 936 mb...and moved 3 nm north and 11nm west...

Ain't WOBBLING NW!

Hang in there AFM. I know some of the comments from others may be frustrating at times. But your insight and views are going to mean quite a bit to our fellow neighbors to the east over the next few days...

Scott

[Brent]

HOLY SMOKES!!!! That is a massive eye...

Solid Cat 4 by 5am... maybe even a strong 4. I hope everyone in the path evacuates if they possibly can.

[Air Force Met]

Latest fix is 936 mb...and moved 3 nm north and 11nm west...

Ain't WOBBLING NW!

Hang in there AFM. I know some of the comments from others may be frustrating at times. But your insight and views are going to mean quite a bit to our fellow neighbors to the east over the next few days...

Scott

According to the recon fix...it's actually still a little SOUTH of the track. South by only 5 miles...but still south. There is NO nw movement.

[krysof]

939 mbs and 115 mph winds- I don't think so, winds are likely to increase in the next advisory, What kind of monster will she be tomorrow morning.

[Stratosphere747]

Latest fix is 936 mb...and moved 3 nm north and 11nm west...

Ain't WOBBLING NW!

Hang in there AFM. I know some of the comments from others may be frustrating at times. But your insight and views are going to mean quite a bit to our fellow neighbors to the east over the next few days...

Scott

According to the recon fix...it's actually still a little SOUTH of the track. South by only 5 miles...but still south. There is NO nw movement.

I agree...To my amateur views, the motion that we seen earlier was just the EWC taking place.

[Air Force Met]

936mb...looking at the IR...I think it is making a run at 910-915.

[LaBreeze]

Air Force Met, does that mean that there may be a small possible shift to the west on the next advisory? Just wondering.

[Air Force Met]

I agree...To my amateur views, the motion that we seen earlier was just the EWC taking place.

That is EXACTLY what it was...and I tried to point that out but some didn't want to listen...they wanted to play the "north of the NHC track" game.

[Hyperstorm]

This will likely be a storm that with a 915 mb pressure, it will only be a category 4 storm. If Katrina were to become a category 5, it would probably have the pressure in the 900s.

This is explained by the fact that a larger storm requires a lower central pressure to generate stronger winds, versus a smaller storm which could be a category 5 with a pressure in the 930s...

[LaBreeze]

Air Force Met, you mentioned earlier that it was just south of west for about 5 miles and that there was no NW movement yet. Question - does that do anything to the forecasted track at all?

[leonardo]

Hyperstorm -

very good point about the larger the size of the systems and the corresponding pressure/wind. A good example of this would be last year with Charley. the storm had 130 kt winds when it made landfall and only had a pressure around 939 millibars, I believe.

regardless...I'm with AFM, I'm seeing sub 920 pressures before it's all set and done with this one. This thing is getting ready to bomb in a big way I'm afraid...

[southerngreen]

the thought that keeps coming to mind whenever i see the graphics is "aggressive" - it's like a living, breathing monster and regardless of whether it's 50 miles one way or the other, it's going to be very bad.
the past 12 hours it has just been screaming like a freight train.

that whole area is so low (below sea level in places) and if the tremendous flooding it caused in south florida is any indication, there won't be a dry place to stand anywhere. i've only been in NO once & i certainly wouldn't want to be anywher near there now.