Hurricane Katrina

[cjrciadt]

125mph winds with 939mb pressure for 11pm advisory??

[bjackrian]

Probably not--that's 110 kts at flight level, which probably isn't translating to the surface. I haven't seen anything over 110 kts since the last advisory (though I've been in and out and might have missed something), so I'm guessing that they'll keep it at ~100 kts=115 mph at 11 p.m.
Just a guess though.

67 kts well southeast of the center

SXXX50 KNHC 280224
AF300 1512A KATRINA HDOB 30 KNHC
0214 2354N 08506W 03049 0038 216 061 100 100 061 03135 0000000000
0214. 2353N 08505W 03048 0042 218 061 100 100 061 03137 0000000000
0215 2352N 08504W 03047 0045 219 062 100 100 062 03139 0000000000
0215. 2350N 08503W 03048 0049 218 061 104 104 063 03144 0000000000
0216 2349N 08501W 03058 0049 219 060 100 100 062 03154 0000000100
0216. 2348N 08500W 03040 0046 227 057 094 094 063 03133 0000000100
0217 2347N 08459W 03047 0050 223 063 092 092 067 03144 0000000000
0217. 2346N 08457W 03050 0052 224 062 100 100 063 03149 0000000000
0218 2345N 08456W 03048 0056 225 062 106 098 062 03151 0000000000
0218. 2343N 08454W 03046 0059 220 058 106 100 060 03152 0000000000
0219 2342N 08453W 03050 0060 220 056 102 098 065 03157 0000000000
0219. 2341N 08451W 03046 0062 221 058 092 092 060 03156 0000000000
0220 2340N 08450W 03051 0066 225 055 102 102 057 03164 0000000000
0220. 2339N 08448W 03049 0071 222 053 110 094 054 03167 0000000000
0221 2341N 08446W 03052 0072 216 054 112 096 055 03171 0000000000
0221. 2343N 08447W 03040 0065 210 054 110 092 054 03152 0000000000
0222 2345N 08447W 03051 0065 214 058 106 096 059 03163 0000000000
0222. 2347N 08447W 03046 0062 215 059 110 086 060 03155 0000000000
0223 2349N 08448W 03048 0059 210 057 106 090 058 03154 0000000000
0223. 2351N 08448W 03050 0057 211 057 110 096 058 03155 0000000000

[Brent]

125mph winds with 939mb pressure for 11pm advisory??

Unless they found stronger winds, no. 110 kt is about 115 mph at the surface.

[senorpepr]

125mph winds with 939mb pressure for 11pm advisory??

Where do you get 125mph winds? The VDM said 110KT at flight level which would equal 115mph surface.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Something tells me it is using the energy to grow in size. When it bombs this baby could cover almost the whole Gulf of Mexico.

[bjackrian]

80 kts towards the southeast...not too near the eye.

SXXX50 KNHC 280234
AF300 1512A KATRINA HDOB 31 KNHC
0224 2354N 08448W 03046 0055 215 067 116 092 069 03148 0000000000
0224. 2356N 08448W 03052 0053 208 066 104 100 067 03153 0000000000
0225 2358N 08448W 03045 0050 206 066 096 096 068 03142 0000000000
0225. 2400N 08448W 03047 0049 207 066 086 086 070 03143 0000000000
0226 2403N 08448W 03053 0047 204 072 080 080 077 03146 0000000100
0226. 2405N 08447W 03046 0044 205 066 078 078 067 03137 0000000100
0227 2407N 08446W 03050 0042 202 068 100 100 068 03138 0000000000
0227. 2409N 08444W 03042 0041 200 068 074 074 069 03131 0000000100
0228 2411N 08443W 03050 0044 201 065 066 066 066 03141 0000000100
0228. 2413N 08443W 03053 0046 198 063 078 078 064 03146 0000000100
0229 2416N 08443W 03046 0045 191 059 098 098 063 03139 0000000000
0229. 2418N 08443W 03046 0044 196 058 086 086 059 03138 0000000100
0230 2420N 08443W 03050 0042 200 065 094 094 065 03140 0000000000
0230. 2422N 08443W 03050 0044 197 061 094 094 064 03141 0000000000
0231 2425N 08443W 03049 0042 194 068 094 094 071 03138 0000000000
0231. 2427N 08443W 03047 0041 193 077 078 078 080 03135 0000000100
0232 2429N 08443W 03051 0043 187 073 078 078 078 03141 0000000100
0232. 2431N 08445W 03036 0039 191 065 096 096 067 03122 0000000100
0233 2433N 08446W 03054 0035 197 069 096 096 070 03136 0000000000
0233. 2435N 08447W 03048 0035 194 064 088 088 065 03130 0000000100

[cycloneye]

630
WTNT22 KNHC 280244
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0300Z SUN AUG 28 2005

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 85.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[bjackrian]

92 kts east of the center

SXXX50 KNHC 280244
AF300 1512A KATRINA HDOB 32 KNHC
0234 2436N 08449W 03047 0029 196 064 092 092 067 03123 0000000100
0234. 2438N 08450W 03054 0028 190 068 094 094 071 03129 0000000100
0235 2440N 08451W 03043 0026 188 066 084 084 068 03116 0000000100
0235. 2442N 08452W 03048 0025 188 062 082 082 063 03120 0000000100
0236 2444N 08453W 03048 0023 189 059 084 084 061 03118 0000000000
0236. 2446N 08454W 03050 0022 185 060 090 090 061 03119 0000000000
0237 2448N 08454W 03046 0021 186 066 086 086 066 03114 0000000000
0237. 2450N 08455W 03051 0020 178 069 076 076 070 03118 0000000100
0238 2453N 08455W 03052 0019 178 073 074 074 075 03117 0000000100
0238. 2455N 08455W 03044 0017 172 073 080 080 075 03108 0000000100
0239 2458N 08456W 03050 0019 173 075 092 092 075 03116 0000000000
0239. 2500N 08456W 03045 0017 172 070 098 098 071 03109 0000000000
0240 2502N 08456W 03051 0014 172 073 098 098 074 03112 0000000100
0240. 2505N 08456W 03052 0013 173 080 080 080 082 03112 0000000100
0241 2507N 08457W 03046 0011 170 089 076 076 092 03104 0000000100
0241. 2510N 08457W 03049 0011 168 081 076 076 085 03107 0000000100
0242 2512N 08457W 03043 0012 163 066 076 076 069 03102 0000000100
0242. 2514N 08458W 03051 0014 165 064 092 092 066 03112 0000000100
0243 2517N 08458W 03050 0016 163 070 080 080 073 03112 0000000100
0243. 2519N 08458W 03042 0018 167 066 090 090 067 03107 0000000100

[cycloneye]

630
WTNT22 KNHC 280244
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0300Z SUN AUG 28 2005

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 85.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA THREATENS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 25.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

630
WTNT22 KNHC 280244
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0300Z SUN AUG 28 2005

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 85.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA THREATENS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 25.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 280249
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
ABOUT 100 KNOTS...BUT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 939 MB. THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN...AND HAS BEEN CHANGING
FROM A COIL TO A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE AROUND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH
ALSO SUPPORTS 100 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE NOAA JET CURRENTLY SAMPLING
THE ENVIRONMENT...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPWARD TO ABOUT 200 MB AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN...ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA...CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE STRENGTHENING
IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH BRING
KATRINA TO 130 AND 123 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY. CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE BEFORE LANDFALL MAY MODIFY THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA
UP OR DOWN...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES ARE NOT POSSIBLE TO
FORECAST NOWADAYS WITH OUR PRESENT KNOWLEDGE. WE CAN ONLY DESCRIBE
THEM AS THEY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE
AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...AND THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY.

IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN THAT
FORCES KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY
CLOSELY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 25.0N 86.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W 85 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 280249
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
ABOUT 100 KNOTS...BUT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 939 MB. THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN...AND HAS BEEN CHANGING
FROM A COIL TO A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE AROUND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH
ALSO SUPPORTS 100 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE NOAA JET CURRENTLY SAMPLING
THE ENVIRONMENT...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPWARD TO ABOUT 200 MB AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN...ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA...CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE STRENGTHENING
IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH BRING
KATRINA TO 130 AND 123 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY. CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE BEFORE LANDFALL MAY MODIFY THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA
UP OR DOWN...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES ARE NOT POSSIBLE TO
FORECAST NOWADAYS WITH OUR PRESENT KNOWLEDGE. WE CAN ONLY DESCRIBE
THEM AS THEY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE
AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...AND THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY.

IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN THAT
FORCES KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY
CLOSELY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 25.0N 86.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W 85 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 280249
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
ABOUT 100 KNOTS...BUT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 939 MB. THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN...AND HAS BEEN CHANGING
FROM A COIL TO A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE AROUND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH
ALSO SUPPORTS 100 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE NOAA JET CURRENTLY SAMPLING
THE ENVIRONMENT...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPWARD TO ABOUT 200 MB AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN...ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA...CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE STRENGTHENING
IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH BRING
KATRINA TO 130 AND 123 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY. CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE BEFORE LANDFALL MAY MODIFY THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA
UP OR DOWN...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES ARE NOT POSSIBLE TO
FORECAST NOWADAYS WITH OUR PRESENT KNOWLEDGE. WE CAN ONLY DESCRIBE
THEM AS THEY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE
AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...AND THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY.

IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN THAT
FORCES KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY
CLOSELY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 25.0N 86.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W 85 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 280249
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
ABOUT 100 KNOTS...BUT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 939 MB. THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN...AND HAS BEEN CHANGING
FROM A COIL TO A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE AROUND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH
ALSO SUPPORTS 100 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE NOAA JET CURRENTLY SAMPLING
THE ENVIRONMENT...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPWARD TO ABOUT 200 MB AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN...ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA...CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE STRENGTHENING
IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH BRING
KATRINA TO 130 AND 123 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY. CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE BEFORE LANDFALL MAY MODIFY THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA
UP OR DOWN...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES ARE NOT POSSIBLE TO
FORECAST NOWADAYS WITH OUR PRESENT KNOWLEDGE. WE CAN ONLY DESCRIBE
THEM AS THEY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE
AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...AND THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY.

IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN THAT
FORCES KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY
CLOSELY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 25.0N 86.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W 85 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 280249
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
ABOUT 100 KNOTS...BUT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 939 MB. THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN...AND HAS BEEN CHANGING
FROM A COIL TO A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE AROUND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH
ALSO SUPPORTS 100 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE NOAA JET CURRENTLY SAMPLING
THE ENVIRONMENT...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPWARD TO ABOUT 200 MB AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN...ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA...CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE STRENGTHENING
IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH BRING
KATRINA TO 130 AND 123 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY. CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE BEFORE LANDFALL MAY MODIFY THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA
UP OR DOWN...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES ARE NOT POSSIBLE TO
FORECAST NOWADAYS WITH OUR PRESENT KNOWLEDGE. WE CAN ONLY DESCRIBE
THEM AS THEY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE
AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...AND THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY.

IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN THAT
FORCES KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY
CLOSELY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 25.0N 86.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W 85 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 280338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/03:26:30Z
B. 24 deg 59 min N
086 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2558 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 119 deg 114 kt
G. 023 deg 020 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 12 C/ 3052 m
J. 19 C/ 3048 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1512A KATRINA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 03:20:40 Z
LIGHTNING OBSERVED BRIEFLY IN NE EYEWALL

[cccmachine]

Time for Tom Petty and Free Fallin'

[Jam151]

Amazing, we could very well get a cat 5 out of this thing.