Invest 90L=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

[Hyperstorm]

Invest 90L is rapidly organizing this evening. Banding is beginning to become more evident. The broad surface low is slowly consolidating at this time. Still my earlier prognosis of development looks right, which is from 12-36 hours.

Another thing that MUST be pointed out is the following...A STRONGER system will tend to move more WESTWARD-WNW than NORTHWESTWARD. The UL flow will be in a way that a MUCH deeper tropical cyclone will be pushed westward by strong UL northerlies from a strengthening ridge that is forecast to develop off of Florida.

If this system becomes a powerful system, there is the potential of seeing a MAJOR threat toward the Northern Antilles.

As I mentioned earlier, a northward moving cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico is an indication of a ridge being displaced to its east.

People in the NE islands SHOULD monitor this system VERY carefully...

[cyclone_eye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOST ALL CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 38W-47W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050828 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050828 0000 050828 1200 050829 0000 050829 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 40.9W 12.5N 43.8W 13.0N 46.6W 13.5N 49.6W
A98E 12.0N 40.9W 12.5N 43.8W 13.1N 46.8W 13.6N 49.7W
LBAR 12.0N 40.9W 12.7N 44.2W 13.5N 47.9W 14.1N 51.9W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050830 0000 050831 0000 050901 0000 050902 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 52.5W 14.8N 58.0W 16.1N 62.9W 17.1N 66.9W
A98E 13.7N 52.7W 15.0N 58.1W 16.1N 63.2W 16.7N 67.9W
LBAR 14.6N 55.9W 15.7N 62.4W 19.7N 64.4W .0N .0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 40.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 38.0W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 35.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z Models changed now more to the NE caribbean.

[johngaltfla]

I do not like where this puppy is starting. Not one iota.

[WindRunner]

Whoa, where's the other half of the models?

[cycloneye]

I dont know where are the rest of the models but those there changed track now going into the Caribbean.

[Scorpion]

The GOM is going to have to deal with this once its out of the Carib. The GOM does not need another storm.

[abajan]

This picture clearly shows 90L starting to take shape quite nicely.

Looks like yet another TD on the way for sure.

[cycloneye]

THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED A LITTLE MORE THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 MPH.


10:30 PM TWO.

[HUC]

fLOATER IS NOW OVER THE DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE WINWARDS;the center of action seems to be around 43° Ouest?That put the threath more and more to the Antillies,and the latests models are in agrement on a cross over the NE Carribean.Wait and...and a big corage for our friends in Louisiana.

[cycloneye]

Wow look how well organized this system looks like.I think this system has the lesser antilles as target due to it's low latitude unless it deviates NW.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a depression to me. Maybe on its way to tropical storm Lee...We need him before 00z 29th to keep a record.

[cycloneye]

SAT Imagery


You can see the system 90L at center of pic

It's a very large system in diameter.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Are any troughs expected to approach the GOM out 9-10 days from now?

I looked at 16 day GFS and am uncertain. No locations mentioned, but
a trough would play a big role.

Also how is the ridge looking for 90L?

[Hyperstorm]

Cycloneye,

Watch for strengthening tendencies. The pattern is setting up so that a stronger storm will probably travel more westward than northward (unlike in normal situations). If the storm strengthens faster than expected (Unfortunately, it is showing impressive tendencies near 12.5, 45W), it will be steered in the general direction of the northern islands (north/south 100 miles). A high is expected to strengthen east of the US with a northward moving hurricane in the Gulf coast.

A simpler way to look at it is by looking at the tropical models, specifically the BAM models.

Look for the tendencies in the BAM-D (deeper) and BAM-S (shallow).

BAM-D track will mean that a deeper (stronger) storm is forecast to take that track. BAM-S track will mean that a shallower (weaker) storm is forecast to take that track.

Nothing to get panicked about, but must be monitored...

[krysof]

EC has been lucky so far this year, but the gulf has not. I've noticed last year it was all about Florida and this year is about the northern gulf, is texas and mexico in for next year than the east coast.

[cycloneye]

Watch for strengthening tendencies. The pattern is setting up so that a stronger storm will probably travel more westward than northward (unlike in normal situations). If the storm strengthens faster than expected (Unfortunately, it is showing impressive tendencies near 12.5, 45W), it will be steered in the general direction of the northern islands (north/south 100 miles). A high is expected to strengthen east of the US with a northward moving hurricane in the Gulf coast.

Interesting that not the usual track to the NW may occur if it develops as they do normally.

Hyperstorm do you think that 97L system may create a weakness or you dont see that happening?

[ROCK]

even if it does make the GOM wouldnt it be safe to say all the upwelling in the GOM would keep him on the low side??

[krysof]

The GOM does not need any more of this. I want a nice EC hurricane miss. Waves have been very low for weeks. A nice offshore hurricane would definetelly kick up the surf.

[Hyperstorm]

Watch for strengthening tendencies. The pattern is setting up so that a stronger storm will probably travel more westward than northward (unlike in normal situations). If the storm strengthens faster than expected (Unfortunately, it is showing impressive tendencies near 12.5, 45W), it will be steered in the general direction of the northern islands (north/south 100 miles). A high is expected to strengthen east of the US with a northward moving hurricane in the Gulf coast.

Interesting that not the usual track to the NW may occur if it develops as they do normally.

Hyperstorm do you think that 97L system may create a weakness or you dont see that happening?

Cycloneye,

Any weakness that 97L might be creating is relatively minuscule compared to the overall pattern in the subtropical Atlantic.

There is a very disorganized mess in the western Atlantic from Florida to 97L, that is a general troughiness. That is showing signs of currently lifting out beginning just this afternoon, which is giving some credence to the forecast of a ridge developing to the east of Florida. There is another trough in the far NE Atlantic that is not really dropping southward, but is persistent. This general pattern favors a ridge to develop just as forecast.

The low has a fairly good forward momentum at this time, so it will be near the longitude of 60W in no more than 3 days...