Hurricane Katrina
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Typhoon_Willie
- Category 5
- Posts: 1042
- Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:19 pm
- Location: Greenacres City, Florida
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...KATRINA STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY FOUR WITH 145 MPH WINDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 310
MILES... 500 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...25.1 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...KATRINA STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY FOUR WITH 145 MPH WINDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 310
MILES... 500 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...25.1 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
27.0N 89.0W 39 X X X 39 MOBILE AL X 12 7 1 20
29.0N 89.8W 10 17 1 X 28 GULFPORT MS 1 16 5 1 23
31.0N 89.8W X 13 8 1 22 BURAS LA 6 19 1 1 27
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA 2 20 3 X 25
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 4 4 NEW IBERIA LA 1 17 3 1 22
SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 PORT ARTHUR TX X 8 5 1 14
CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX X 5 4 1 10
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX X 2 3 1 6
WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X 1 X 1 2
TAMPA FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 29N 85W 1 4 3 2 10
CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 2 4 GULF 29N 87W 6 11 2 X 19
ST MARKS FL X 1 3 5 9 GULF 28N 89W 26 4 X 1 31
APALACHICOLA FL X 3 5 3 11 GULF 28N 91W 17 10 X X 27
PANAMA CITY FL X 5 5 3 13 GULF 28N 93W 3 12 1 X 16
PENSACOLA FL X 9 7 2 18 GULF 28N 95W X 3 2 1 6
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON
C FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON
D FROM 7PM MON TO 7PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER KNABB
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HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0600Z SUN AUG 28 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 86.8W AT 28/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 150SE 150SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 86.8W AT 28/0600Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 85.9W
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 86.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
FORECASTER KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0600Z SUN AUG 28 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 86.8W AT 28/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 150SE 150SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 86.8W AT 28/0600Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 85.9W
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 86.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
FORECASTER KNABB
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Hurricane Katrina Special Advisory Number 20
Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on August 28, 2005
...Katrina strengthens to category four with 145 mph winds...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast
from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida
border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
east of the Alabama/Florida border to Destin Florida...and from
west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch
means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1 am CDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 25.1 north... longitude 86.8 west or about 310
miles... 500 km... south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi
River.
Katrina is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph. A gradual
turn toward the northwest is expected later today.
Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 145
mph...with higher gusts. Katrina is a category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 935 mb...27.61 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...locally as high as 25 feet along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.
Heavy rains from Katrina should begin to affect the central Gulf
Coast Sunday evening. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches...are possible along the path
of Katrina. The hurricane is still expected to produce additional
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over extreme western Cuba...and 1
to 3 inches of rainfall is expected over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.1 N... 86.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 935 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 am CDT.
Forecaster Knabb
Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on August 28, 2005
...Katrina strengthens to category four with 145 mph winds...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast
from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida
border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
east of the Alabama/Florida border to Destin Florida...and from
west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch
means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1 am CDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 25.1 north... longitude 86.8 west or about 310
miles... 500 km... south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi
River.
Katrina is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph. A gradual
turn toward the northwest is expected later today.
Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 145
mph...with higher gusts. Katrina is a category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 935 mb...27.61 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...locally as high as 25 feet along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.
Heavy rains from Katrina should begin to affect the central Gulf
Coast Sunday evening. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches...are possible along the path
of Katrina. The hurricane is still expected to produce additional
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over extreme western Cuba...and 1
to 3 inches of rainfall is expected over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.1 N... 86.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 935 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 am CDT.
Forecaster Knabb
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thunderchief
- Category 1
- Posts: 306
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:03 pm
this led to the latest vortex but NHC says there was even stronger ones I'll look.
SXXX50 KNHC 280514
AF300 1512A KATRINA HDOB 47 KNHC
0504 2449N 08622W 03043 5239 221 109 092 092 111 02850 0000000100
0504. 2450N 08623W 03056 5263 224 116 094 094 117 02839 0000000100
0505 2452N 08624W 03050 5288 225 118 098 098 119 02809 0000000100
0505. 2453N 08625W 03045 5315 225 121 100 100 122 02776 0000000100
0506 2454N 08626W 03047 5345 224 122 096 096 122 02748 0000000100
0506. 2455N 08627W 03059 5374 224 113 108 108 116 02731 0000000100
0507 2456N 08629W 03039 5404 229 099 122 122 112 02680 0000000100
0507. 2457N 08630W 03046 5423 229 066 146 146 076 02669 0000000000
0508 2458N 08631W 03047 5433 226 048 162 156 051 02659 0000000000
0508. 2459N 08632W 03049 5441 229 041 164 146 043 02654 0000000000
0509 2500N 08634W 03048 5448 233 035 164 140 037 02646 0000000000
0509. 2502N 08635W 03050 5455 234 030 170 130 032 02641 0000000000
0510 2503N 08636W 03050 5462 243 027 172 130 028 02634 0000000000
0510. 2504N 08637W 03051 5469 238 021 174 156 025 02628 0000000000
0511 2506N 08638W 03050 5474 236 015 176 148 018 02623 0000000000
0511. 2508N 08639W 03049 5478 205 005 186 124 009 02617 0000000000
0512 2509N 08640W 03048 5481 078 003 188 114 004 02613 0000000000
0512. 2510N 08642W 03051 5482 055 008 190 110 011 02615 0000000000
0513 2511N 08643W 03047 5483 042 016 192 112 019 02610 0000000000
0513. 2513N 08644W 03051 5481 044 023 190 122 027 02616 0000000000
SXXX50 KNHC 280514
AF300 1512A KATRINA HDOB 47 KNHC
0504 2449N 08622W 03043 5239 221 109 092 092 111 02850 0000000100
0504. 2450N 08623W 03056 5263 224 116 094 094 117 02839 0000000100
0505 2452N 08624W 03050 5288 225 118 098 098 119 02809 0000000100
0505. 2453N 08625W 03045 5315 225 121 100 100 122 02776 0000000100
0506 2454N 08626W 03047 5345 224 122 096 096 122 02748 0000000100
0506. 2455N 08627W 03059 5374 224 113 108 108 116 02731 0000000100
0507 2456N 08629W 03039 5404 229 099 122 122 112 02680 0000000100
0507. 2457N 08630W 03046 5423 229 066 146 146 076 02669 0000000000
0508 2458N 08631W 03047 5433 226 048 162 156 051 02659 0000000000
0508. 2459N 08632W 03049 5441 229 041 164 146 043 02654 0000000000
0509 2500N 08634W 03048 5448 233 035 164 140 037 02646 0000000000
0509. 2502N 08635W 03050 5455 234 030 170 130 032 02641 0000000000
0510 2503N 08636W 03050 5462 243 027 172 130 028 02634 0000000000
0510. 2504N 08637W 03051 5469 238 021 174 156 025 02628 0000000000
0511 2506N 08638W 03050 5474 236 015 176 148 018 02623 0000000000
0511. 2508N 08639W 03049 5478 205 005 186 124 009 02617 0000000000
0512 2509N 08640W 03048 5481 078 003 188 114 004 02613 0000000000
0512. 2510N 08642W 03051 5482 055 008 190 110 011 02615 0000000000
0513 2511N 08643W 03047 5483 042 016 192 112 019 02610 0000000000
0513. 2513N 08644W 03051 5481 044 023 190 122 027 02616 0000000000
Last edited by thunderchief on Sun Aug 28, 2005 1:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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thunderchief
- Category 1
- Posts: 306
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:03 pm
SXXX50 KNHC 280524
AF300 1512A KATRINA HDOB 48 KNHC
0514 2514N 08646W 03051 5476 045 033 186 142 036 02621 0000000000
0514. 2515N 08647W 03048 5470 046 043 194 136 046 02624 0000000000
0515 2516N 08649W 03052 5461 050 052 192 144 056 02637 0000000000
0515. 2517N 08650W 03045 5450 050 065 172 168 071 02641 0000000000
0516 2519N 08651W 03055 5429 052 081 162 162 085 02671 0000000000
0516. 2520N 08653W 03048 5407 052 095 142 142 098 02687 0000000100
0517 2521N 08654W 03055 5375 054 115 112 112 121 02726 0000000100
0517. 2522N 08655W 03041 5344 052 130 102 102 137 02744 0000000100
0518 2523N 08656W 03057 5311 055 129 108 108 133 02792 0000000100
0518. 2524N 08657W 03049 5281 055 125 108 108 127 02814 0000000000
0519 2525N 08659W 03048 5256 054 120 134 122 121 02838 0000000000
0519. 2527N 08700W 03051 5234 057 116 134 132 118 02863 0000000000
0520 2528N 08701W 03052 5211 057 110 122 122 112 02888 0000000000
0520. 2529N 08703W 03045 5194 057 104 120 120 107 02897 0000000000
0521 2530N 08704W 03054 5177 058 102 122 122 103 02923 0000000000
0521. 2531N 08705W 03051 5162 059 096 124 124 098 02935 0000000000
0522 2533N 08707W 03047 5147 058 092 124 124 093 02947 0000000000
0522. 2534N 08708W 03050 5135 056 089 124 124 090 02962 0000000000
0523 2535N 08709W 03051 5123 058 088 126 126 090 02974 0000000000
0523. 2536N 08711W 03051 5112 057 087 122 122 089 02986 0000000000
here we are... 137 knots
AF300 1512A KATRINA HDOB 48 KNHC
0514 2514N 08646W 03051 5476 045 033 186 142 036 02621 0000000000
0514. 2515N 08647W 03048 5470 046 043 194 136 046 02624 0000000000
0515 2516N 08649W 03052 5461 050 052 192 144 056 02637 0000000000
0515. 2517N 08650W 03045 5450 050 065 172 168 071 02641 0000000000
0516 2519N 08651W 03055 5429 052 081 162 162 085 02671 0000000000
0516. 2520N 08653W 03048 5407 052 095 142 142 098 02687 0000000100
0517 2521N 08654W 03055 5375 054 115 112 112 121 02726 0000000100
0517. 2522N 08655W 03041 5344 052 130 102 102 137 02744 0000000100
0518 2523N 08656W 03057 5311 055 129 108 108 133 02792 0000000100
0518. 2524N 08657W 03049 5281 055 125 108 108 127 02814 0000000000
0519 2525N 08659W 03048 5256 054 120 134 122 121 02838 0000000000
0519. 2527N 08700W 03051 5234 057 116 134 132 118 02863 0000000000
0520 2528N 08701W 03052 5211 057 110 122 122 112 02888 0000000000
0520. 2529N 08703W 03045 5194 057 104 120 120 107 02897 0000000000
0521 2530N 08704W 03054 5177 058 102 122 122 103 02923 0000000000
0521. 2531N 08705W 03051 5162 059 096 124 124 098 02935 0000000000
0522 2533N 08707W 03047 5147 058 092 124 124 093 02947 0000000000
0522. 2534N 08708W 03050 5135 056 089 124 124 090 02962 0000000000
0523 2535N 08709W 03051 5123 058 088 126 126 090 02974 0000000000
0523. 2536N 08711W 03051 5112 057 087 122 122 089 02986 0000000000
here we are... 137 knots
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SPECIAL ADVISORY
Hurricane Katrina Special Discussion Number 20
Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on August 28, 2005
this special advisory is being issued to update the initial and
forecast intensity of Hurricane Katrina. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft reported 700 mb flight level winds of 137
kt in the northwestern eyewall... corresponding to about 125 kt at
the surface. The latest minimum central pressure measured by the
aircraft was 935 mb. Although the hurricane has reached 125 kt
more quickly than previously expected...the intensity forecast up
until landfall has only been nudged upward to 130 kt. It is
possible that Katrina could get stronger than forecast and perhaps
even reach category five status sometime during the next 36 hours.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 28/0600z 25.1n 86.8w 125 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 25.5n 87.5w 125 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 27.0n 89.0w 130 kt
36hr VT 29/1200z 29.0n 89.8w 130 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 31.0n 89.8w 90 kt...inland
72hr VT 31/0000z 36.5n 87.0w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 01/0000z 41.0n 80.5w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 02/0000z 45.5n 71.5w 25 kt...extratropical
Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on August 28, 2005
this special advisory is being issued to update the initial and
forecast intensity of Hurricane Katrina. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft reported 700 mb flight level winds of 137
kt in the northwestern eyewall... corresponding to about 125 kt at
the surface. The latest minimum central pressure measured by the
aircraft was 935 mb. Although the hurricane has reached 125 kt
more quickly than previously expected...the intensity forecast up
until landfall has only been nudged upward to 130 kt. It is
possible that Katrina could get stronger than forecast and perhaps
even reach category five status sometime during the next 36 hours.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 28/0600z 25.1n 86.8w 125 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 25.5n 87.5w 125 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 27.0n 89.0w 130 kt
36hr VT 29/1200z 29.0n 89.8w 130 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 31.0n 89.8w 90 kt...inland
72hr VT 31/0000z 36.5n 87.0w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 01/0000z 41.0n 80.5w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 02/0000z 45.5n 71.5w 25 kt...extratropical
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(track map deleted)
Well, I'm now officially in "the cone" (in fact, smack dab in the middle of the track) weird as that may be.
I'm very happy that those of us who are in the part of the cone that I'm in need only worry about inland flooding. And I'm very sad that so many people, including people I feel I "know" from reading this board, have so much more to worry about.
This feels so much like that fraction of a second, that seems to last for hours, between when you know you're going to have an auto accident, and when you feel the impact. You know it's going to be bad, but you can't do a thing about it except watch.
Well, I'm now officially in "the cone" (in fact, smack dab in the middle of the track) weird as that may be.
I'm very happy that those of us who are in the part of the cone that I'm in need only worry about inland flooding. And I'm very sad that so many people, including people I feel I "know" from reading this board, have so much more to worry about.
This feels so much like that fraction of a second, that seems to last for hours, between when you know you're going to have an auto accident, and when you feel the impact. You know it's going to be bad, but you can't do a thing about it except watch.
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-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA OB 01 (12L)
Mission Number: 16
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number:
Time: 0600Z
Latitude: 25.1°N
Longitude: 83.8°W
Location: 133 mi WNW of Key West, Florida
Surface: 1002 mb; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 24.1°F; SE (130°) @ 31 mph
1000mb height: 72 ft; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 24°F; SE (135°) @ 35 mph
925mb height: 2329 ft; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 21.4°F; SSE (150°) @ 58 mph
850mb height: 4744 ft; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 14°F; SSE (155°) @ 60 mph
700mb height: 10157 ft; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 7.3°F; S (170°) @ 50 mph
500mb height: 19094 ft; Temp: 22°F; Dewpt: -6°F; S (175°) @ 52 mph
400mb height: 24770 ft; Temp: 8°F; Dewpt: -15.9°F; S (170°) @ 44 mph
300mb height: 31759 ft; Temp: -18°F; Dewpt: -32.2°F; SSE (155°) @ 39 mph
250mb height: 35991 ft; Temp: -37°F; Dewpt: -41.9°F; S (170°) @ 33 mph
SPL 2527N08379W 0625 WL150 13537 085 DLM WND 16541 002189 M
BL WND 14045=
Storm Name: KATRINA OB 01 (12L)
Mission Number: 16
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number:
Time: 0600Z
Latitude: 25.1°N
Longitude: 83.8°W
Location: 133 mi WNW of Key West, Florida
Surface: 1002 mb; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 24.1°F; SE (130°) @ 31 mph
1000mb height: 72 ft; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 24°F; SE (135°) @ 35 mph
925mb height: 2329 ft; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 21.4°F; SSE (150°) @ 58 mph
850mb height: 4744 ft; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 14°F; SSE (155°) @ 60 mph
700mb height: 10157 ft; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 7.3°F; S (170°) @ 50 mph
500mb height: 19094 ft; Temp: 22°F; Dewpt: -6°F; S (175°) @ 52 mph
400mb height: 24770 ft; Temp: 8°F; Dewpt: -15.9°F; S (170°) @ 44 mph
300mb height: 31759 ft; Temp: -18°F; Dewpt: -32.2°F; SSE (155°) @ 39 mph
250mb height: 35991 ft; Temp: -37°F; Dewpt: -41.9°F; S (170°) @ 33 mph
SPL 2527N08379W 0625 WL150 13537 085 DLM WND 16541 002189 M
BL WND 14045=
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-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA OB 02 (12L)
Mission Number: 16
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number:
Time: 0600Z
Latitude: 24.3°N
Longitude: 85°W
Location: 188 mi WNW of Havana, Cuba
Surface: 997 mb; Temp: 83°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; SSE (165°) @ 46 mph
925mb height: 2175 ft; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 23.2°F; S (175°) @ 73 mph
850mb height: 4593 ft; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 16.5°F; S (185°) @ 67 mph
700mb height: 10020 ft; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 8.8°F; S (185°) @ 60 mph
500mb height: 18996 ft; Temp: 26°F; Dewpt: -5.2°F; SW (215°) @ 61 mph
400mb height: 24705 ft; Temp: 9°F; Dewpt: -15.6°F; SSW (200°) @ 58 mph
300mb height: 31726 ft; Temp: -16°F; Dewpt: -30°F; S (185°) @ 46 mph
250mb height: 35958 ft; Temp: -34°F; Dewpt: -40°F; SSW (200°) @ 40 mph
SPL 2444N08493W 0638 WL150 16543 085 DLM WND 19549 996181 M
BL WND 16549=
Storm Name: KATRINA OB 02 (12L)
Mission Number: 16
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number:
Time: 0600Z
Latitude: 24.3°N
Longitude: 85°W
Location: 188 mi WNW of Havana, Cuba
Surface: 997 mb; Temp: 83°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; SSE (165°) @ 46 mph
925mb height: 2175 ft; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 23.2°F; S (175°) @ 73 mph
850mb height: 4593 ft; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 16.5°F; S (185°) @ 67 mph
700mb height: 10020 ft; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 8.8°F; S (185°) @ 60 mph
500mb height: 18996 ft; Temp: 26°F; Dewpt: -5.2°F; SW (215°) @ 61 mph
400mb height: 24705 ft; Temp: 9°F; Dewpt: -15.6°F; SSW (200°) @ 58 mph
300mb height: 31726 ft; Temp: -16°F; Dewpt: -30°F; S (185°) @ 46 mph
250mb height: 35958 ft; Temp: -34°F; Dewpt: -40°F; SSW (200°) @ 40 mph
SPL 2444N08493W 0638 WL150 16543 085 DLM WND 19549 996181 M
BL WND 16549=
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-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA OB 03 (12L)
Mission Number: 16
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number:
Time: 0700Z
Latitude: 24°N
Longitude: 86.8°W
Location: 205 mi N of Cancun, Mexico
Surface: 990 mb; Temp: 83°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; SSW (210°) @ 54 mph
925mb height: 1982 ft; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 23.4°F; SW (225°) @ 73 mph
850mb height: 4400 ft; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 19.8°F; SW (230°) @ 68 mph
700mb height: 9816 ft; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 10.4°F; WSW (240°) @ 78 mph
500mb height: 18799 ft; Temp: 27°F; Dewpt: -3.6°F; W (260°) @ 75 mph
400mb height: 24508 ft; Temp: 12°F; Dewpt: -12.8°F; W (270°) @ 69 mph
300mb height: 31594 ft; Temp: -12°F; Dewpt: -27.3°F; W (280°) @ 67 mph
250mb height: 35860 ft; Temp: -31°F; Dewpt: -38.4°F; WNW (285°) @ 58 mph
SPL 2410N08662W 0653 WL150 21548 085 DLM WND 25056 990181 M
BL WND 22058=
Storm Name: KATRINA OB 03 (12L)
Mission Number: 16
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number:
Time: 0700Z
Latitude: 24°N
Longitude: 86.8°W
Location: 205 mi N of Cancun, Mexico
Surface: 990 mb; Temp: 83°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; SSW (210°) @ 54 mph
925mb height: 1982 ft; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 23.4°F; SW (225°) @ 73 mph
850mb height: 4400 ft; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 19.8°F; SW (230°) @ 68 mph
700mb height: 9816 ft; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 10.4°F; WSW (240°) @ 78 mph
500mb height: 18799 ft; Temp: 27°F; Dewpt: -3.6°F; W (260°) @ 75 mph
400mb height: 24508 ft; Temp: 12°F; Dewpt: -12.8°F; W (270°) @ 69 mph
300mb height: 31594 ft; Temp: -12°F; Dewpt: -27.3°F; W (280°) @ 67 mph
250mb height: 35860 ft; Temp: -31°F; Dewpt: -38.4°F; WNW (285°) @ 58 mph
SPL 2410N08662W 0653 WL150 21548 085 DLM WND 25056 990181 M
BL WND 22058=
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-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA OB 04 (12L)
Mission Number: 16
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number:
Time: 0700Z
Latitude: 25.3°N
Longitude: 88.5°W
Location: 286 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Surface: 991 mb; Temp: 82°F; Dewpt: 26.6°F; N (350°) @ 39 mph
925mb height: 1995 ft; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 23.2°F; N (360°) @ 67 mph
850mb height: 4413 ft; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 19.5°F; N (10°) @ 75 mph
700mb height: 9852 ft; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 11.4°F; N (360°) @ 68 mph
500mb height: 18865 ft; Temp: 28°F; Dewpt: -2.3°F; N (10°) @ 68 mph
400mb height: 24606 ft; Temp: 13°F; Dewpt: -11.8°F; NNE (15°) @ 62 mph
300mb height: 31693 ft; Temp: -12°F; Dewpt: -26.7°F; NNE (20°) @ 50 mph
250mb height: 35925 ft; Temp: -32°F; Dewpt: NA; NNE (15°) @ 48 mph
SPL 2514N08848W 0710 WL150 34541 085 DLM WND 00553 990181 M
BL WND 35046=
Storm Name: KATRINA OB 04 (12L)
Mission Number: 16
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number:
Time: 0700Z
Latitude: 25.3°N
Longitude: 88.5°W
Location: 286 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Surface: 991 mb; Temp: 82°F; Dewpt: 26.6°F; N (350°) @ 39 mph
925mb height: 1995 ft; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 23.2°F; N (360°) @ 67 mph
850mb height: 4413 ft; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 19.5°F; N (10°) @ 75 mph
700mb height: 9852 ft; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 11.4°F; N (360°) @ 68 mph
500mb height: 18865 ft; Temp: 28°F; Dewpt: -2.3°F; N (10°) @ 68 mph
400mb height: 24606 ft; Temp: 13°F; Dewpt: -11.8°F; NNE (15°) @ 62 mph
300mb height: 31693 ft; Temp: -12°F; Dewpt: -26.7°F; NNE (20°) @ 50 mph
250mb height: 35925 ft; Temp: -32°F; Dewpt: NA; NNE (15°) @ 48 mph
SPL 2514N08848W 0710 WL150 34541 085 DLM WND 00553 990181 M
BL WND 35046=
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