Breaking News: Cat 5 possible in next 36 hours

[Windy]

Hurricane Katrina Special Discussion Number 20

Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on August 28, 2005


this special advisory is being issued to update the initial and
forecast intensity of Hurricane Katrina. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft reported 700 mb flight level winds of 137
kt in the northwestern eyewall... corresponding to about 125 kt at
the surface. The latest minimum central pressure measured by the
aircraft was 935 mb. Although the hurricane has reached 125 kt
more quickly than previously expected...the intensity forecast up
until landfall has only been nudged upward to 130 kt. It is
possible that Katrina could get stronger than forecast and perhaps
even reach category five status sometime during the next 36 hours.

Forecaster Knabb

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/0600z 25.1n 86.8w 125 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 25.5n 87.5w 125 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 27.0n 89.0w 130 kt
36hr VT 29/1200z 29.0n 89.8w 130 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 31.0n 89.8w 90 kt...inland
72hr VT 31/0000z 36.5n 87.0w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 01/0000z 41.0n 80.5w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 02/0000z 45.5n 71.5w 25 kt...extratropical

[Hurricaneman]

Theres not anything that would keep that from happeneing

[birdwomn]

sadly, I think we all knew this was coming.

We will be praying for a weakening and a more westward movement.

[Swimdude]

N.O. just ordered mandatory evacs.

[Thunder44]

Cat 5 being possible is not breaking news. It's been mentioned in TPC discussions since yesterday. Just another excuse to make a new thread.

[Windy]

It has? I hadn't seen them mention Cat 5 until now. They tend to be very conservative about such talk. If they have, then my apologies.

You'll notice that I don't create a lot of threads around here.

[southerngreen]

It probably depends on what local mets are reporting & what online links you frequent. We heard it here earlier this evening (that Cat 5 was a real possibility).

I think we are all getting a little jumpy. I can't stop watching and every time a squall line comes through I have to make sure the forecast hasn't changed. We are getting rain and wind every few hours and look how far away it is from west central florida - still WAY too close for my comfort. Maybe tomorrow night I'll rest easier.

[LaBreeze]

Not liking the "more westward movement" mentioned by birdwomn. I know no one wants Katrina to come their way, but please not more west.

[Thunder44]

It has? I hadn't seen them mention Cat 5 until now. They tend to be very conservative about such talk. If they have, then my apologies.

You'll notice that I don't create a lot of threads around here.

I'm sorry that you didn't mean to make another unecessary thread.

Look in the archives:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/re ... 2512.shtml?

Excerpt from 10am discussion yesterday:

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO AS THE
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL COMPLETES AND SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SHEAR
AFFECTS THE STORM. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN A LIGHT
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH 125 KT IN 48 HR AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 120 KT GFDL...THE 126 KT GFDN...THE 127 KT SHIPS...AND
THE 132 KT FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS AT SOME
POINT BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD AFFECT KATRINA STARTING AT 48 HR...AND AS
ALWAYS HAPPENS IN HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY ADDITIONAL CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR.



Excerpt 5pm discussion yesterday:

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT COMES OUT OF THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE. THE GFDL IS NOW CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 131 KT...
WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS CALLING FOR 130 KT AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE 128 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
STRENGTHENING TO 125 KT AT LANDFALL...AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE
THAT KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH COULD THROW OFF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST A BIT.

I also myself heard Stacy Stewart on the Radio yesterday talking about the possiblity of a Cat 5.