Invest 90L=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

[cycloneye]

Ok as always Hyperstorm thanks for you excellent discussions.Those discussions are well apreciated not only by me but our friends who are in the lesser antilles islands,BVI,USVI,PR.

Now let's see what 90L does but I fear that this system will be a problem for the NE Caribbean so let's continue to watch how it evolves.

[Fego]

Kudos for Hyperstorm. So, we are very concern for the GOM states because of Katrina and obviously keeping all eyes in 97L.

[cycloneye]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
IS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.


TD later today.

[cycloneye]

Still needs to consolidate a little more but it's getting there.

[bvigal]

Ok as always Hyperstorm thanks for you excellent discussions.Those discussions are well apreciated not only by me but our friends who are in the lesser antilles islands,BVI,USVI,PR.

Now let's see what 90L does but I fear that this system will be a problem for the NE Caribbean so let's continue to watch how it evolves.

Ditto all that. Thanks Hyperstorm, and thanks Luis for posting the pics this morning. I am concerned about this system, because it is getting close. If it organizes rapidly, we won't have a lot of time to prepare.

[caneman]

even if it does make the GOM wouldnt it be safe to say all the upwelling in the GOM would keep him on the low side??

No, it isn't safe to say. With water temps at 94 it isn't going to lower them that much and if this system tracks West or East of Katrina upwelling won't be a problem in those areas either. Further, the GOM will have several days to increase water temps befire this system arrives..

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W/44W WITH A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12.5N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW CENTER MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN 41W AND 52W.

8 AM Discussion.

[cycloneye]

This thread has not vanished as a member said.Only you have to look down the page to find it.

[Galvestongirl]

would it be o.k. to sticky this, at least for now, so that it does not get lost again?

[Hyperstorm]

Thanks all for your comments. I'm trying to do the best in discussing about this system, even though there is a Category 5 in the Gulf.

This morning, the system has remained about the same in terms of organization. There has been some very slight easterly shear in the storm that has prevented it from getting much more organized, but that should abate as it moves further.

The storm has jumped to about 14N this morning. This could be explained by the system being slow to organize and is not deep now.

The system will likely become a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. SSTs are very warm and there is no dry air that may stop it.

Watch out for any strengthening tendencies...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is there forecasted to be a trough nearing GOM 7-8 days from now?

[Derecho]

Actually the wave just off Africa suddenly organized and looks even better than 90L now.


I

[WindRunner]

Well, something needs to get named today if we are to keep ahead of 1995. Their #12 storm formed 8/29.

[cat_5]

our #12 storm developed 8/23.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Katrina is "named" storm #11. Formed from TD12, since TD10 never developed past TD.

[nequad]

Quite honestly...90L looks like a depression. Visible imagery shows the LLC spinning under the deep convection of the banding feature on the southern flank of the system. There appears to be a tight little circulation there.

No 12Z models for whatever reason.

91L also looks good this morning...but will need a little more time spin up.

The jump to 14N might be a good thing for the Islands.

[nequad]

Scratch that...models just came out...


DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050828 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050828 1200 050829 0000 050829 1200 050830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 46.1W 13.3N 48.9W 13.7N 51.7W 14.1N 54.4W
BAMM 12.8N 46.1W 13.5N 48.3W 14.3N 50.6W 15.1N 52.8W
A98E 12.8N 46.1W 13.5N 50.0W 14.1N 53.5W 14.4N 56.7W
LBAR 12.8N 46.1W 13.7N 49.7W 14.6N 53.4W 15.1N 56.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050830 1200 050831 1200 050901 1200 050902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 57.0W 15.1N 62.1W 15.9N 67.1W 15.6N 71.5W
BAMM 15.9N 55.1W 17.3N 59.6W 18.6N 64.3W 19.2N 68.9W
A98E 14.5N 59.3W 15.9N 63.8W 17.3N 67.6W 18.2N 72.0W
LBAR 15.7N 60.4W 17.5N 66.1W 19.8N 69.4W 32.6N 70.2W
SHIP 52KTS 65KTS 71KTS 76KTS
DSHP 52KTS 65KTS 71KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 46.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 40.9W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 38.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Weatherboy1]

Looks like our next two eventual TDs/TSs could be on their way. 90 is certainly holding together and getting into a relatively favorable environment, and the wave that just moved off the African coast at what appears to be a very low latitude could be the next to consolidate and head W or WNW. And we're not even at Labor Day yet!

[bvigal]

96hrs...
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 57.0W 15.1N 62.1W 15.9N 67.1W 15.6N 71.5W
BAMM 15.9N 55.1W 17.3N 59.6W 18.6N 64.3W 19.2N 68.9W
A98E 14.5N 59.3W 15.9N 63.8W 17.3N 67.6W 18.2N 72.0W
LBAR 15.7N 60.4W 17.5N 66.1W 19.8N 69.4W 32.6N 70.2W
SHIP 52KTS 65KTS 71KTS 76KTS
DSHP 52KTS 65KTS 71KTS 76KTS

oh rats!!!

By the way, how fast is this thing moving? It's hauling a_s westward! No wonder it can't get organized!

[Patrick99]

Just seeing this for the first time.....this doesn't look half bad, it has the appearance of a depression.

Whether by this system or another later in September or October, I get the distinct feeling that S. FL is not done with hurricanes this year.