New GFDL=Biloxi/Pascagoula, 12z tropicals (FWIW)=NOLA

[rockyman]

I haven't seen the actually model output, but here's the latest track..it's the pink line:


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif

[Ivanhater]

it shifted east?

[PTPatrick]

HOLY S**T

[PTPatrick]

I think regardless of if it turns into hancock or harrison...they are getting the RFQ...and getting screwed....record breaking surge to be seen in Harrison, Jackson and MObile co.

[mtm4319]

The 12z LBAR has it going just west of NOLA... is that an east or west shift?

[BayouVenteux]

Starting to see and hear rumblings from some TV mets looking at WV loops that lend credence to this. The trough may...MAY...begin to influence Katrina into moving N and possibly NNE earlier than previously thought.

Anyone reading this needs to remember though, that this is a dangerous and VERY LARGE storm and the NHC's advice on not focusing on the center as a point should be taken seriously.

Listen to and follow your local authorities guidance!

[dixiebreeze]

I haven't seen the actually model output, but here's the latest track..it's the pink line:


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif

Probably why the Hurricane Watch was moved east to Destin, Fla. last night. The majority of large 'canes in the GOM, historically speaking, have trended east before landfall. That's not to say Katrina will, but it is possible.

[mtm4319]

I don't care about the BAM models, but they look to have shifted a tad east.

[Cookiely]

I haven't seen the actually model output, but here's the latest track..it's the pink line:


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif

Probably why the Hurricane Watch was moved east to Destin, Fla. last night. The majority of large 'canes in the GOM, historically speaking, have trended east before landfall. That's not to say Katrina will, but it is possible.

I agree on the shift to the east. I'm praying that this shift will save New Orleans. My prayers for all who are going to be affected by this storm.

[Brent]

This may be Mobile's storm too... they've dodged a couple of bullets the last two years... even if it plows into the LA/MS border, it's not going to be pretty over there.

[storms in NC]

This may be Mobile's storm too... they've dodged a couple of bullets the last two years... even if it plows into the LA/MS border, it's not going to be pretty over there.

Brent you think NOLA is still going to get hit?

[BayouVenteux]

This may be Mobile's storm too... they've dodged a couple of bullets the last two years... even if it plows into the LA/MS border, it's not going to be pretty over there.

No "may" about it Brent, Mobile will take a hit no matter what happens.

[gulfcoastdave]

Question for the group on this :

I live just east of Pensacola. I saw the models shift yesterday morning just to go back west. I have seen the storm and seen it head a nudge more north than expected. I have also heard some TV mets talk about a more shift east. Here is my question, do any of you think this will turn more and make landfall say between Biolxi and mobile ? This would put me in more danger. I have everything if needed to protect the house but if storm changes I want to leave......I know this is hard to answer but would like input

thank you

[Brent]

This may be Mobile's storm too... they've dodged a couple of bullets the last two years... even if it plows into the LA/MS border, it's not going to be pretty over there.

Brent you think NOLA is still going to get hit?

Too close to call. I'm thinking a hair east, but even if it does that, the Alabama coast is going to be devastated.

[Ivanhater]

steve lyons was talking about it could be moving east of north or northeast before landfall

[storms in NC]

steve lyons was talking about it could be moving east of north or northeast before landfall

I think it is up to Kat to where she wants to go now. She can go any where at this point. reason is cause she is so powerful

[tampastorm]

If I lived in the FL panhandle , I am VERY concerned. Any "wobble" now actually means something.

[Thunder44]

I haven't seen the actually model output, but here's the latest track..it's the pink line:


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif

Probably why the Hurricane Watch was moved east to Destin, Fla. last night. The majority of large 'canes in the GOM, historically speaking, have trended east before landfall. That's not to say Katrina will, but it is possible.

It's more because the storms is getting larger. A larger area of hurricane force winds. That's what they said in the discussion.

[djtil]

the ukmet and gfdl now agree.....looks like nola may get fringe....fingers crossed.

[BamaMan]

the ukmet and gfdl now agree.....looks like nola may get fringe....fingers crossed.

I wish the best for all of NOLA, but them getting the fringe will only mean more devastation for all eastward