Will Katrina Weaken before landfall?

[jaysonx]

Since a Category 5 Hurricane usually does not maintain its intensity for long periods of time. Do you guys think that the inner core will start to fall apart and it may go ashore as a weakening category 4 storm? We are 24hours away from landfall correct? This time yesterday it was barely a Category 3.

[EverythingIsEverything]

i would like to know that as well, how long did isabel last as a cat 5 also?

[cjrciadt]

Waters are 3 degrees warmer at the LA coast, I wish yes but Katrina has only been full of surprises.

[baitism]

I think it will weaken.....maybe...i hope. I think it will still be 160+ at landfall though. Its still possible it could strengthen. It looks to be about as healthy as a hurricane can be.

Ill say 175 mph at landfall.

[tronbunny]

Any EWRC before/at landfall are welcome, to possibly reduce intensity.
But even if it drops to cat3 (unlikely) this will be VERY bad.. due to sheer size and density.
Another situation where the Safir-Simpson scale may not do justice to the actual real threat.

[LSU2001]

If this is truly an annular cane, there may not be anymore EWRC's KAT could maintain this strength or even strengten. Don't look for an Isidore with this storm.
TIM

[LSU2001]

If this is truly an annular cane, there may not be anymore EWRC's KAT could maintain this strength or even strengten. Don't look for an Isidore with this storm.
TIM

[btangy]

The intensity forecast will be quite hard. Independent of any cyclic fluctuations of eyewall replacement cycles... Shear is higher to the N and there is some dry air present in WV imagery off toward the NW. But, again, I want to emphasize Katrina is a very large hurricane. Ivan was subject to some bouts of 15+ knots of shear over the Caribbean, yet it retained Cat 4/5 status. The difference between Ivan and Katrina is that Ivan was surrounded by a very moist environment. There's very little chance shear will weaken Katrina because I think the storm's outflow is just too strong and big. Additionally, 200-300mb winds at 12Z at KSIL are only 15-20knots...very weak at this level. If you look at the CIMSS analysis, you might notice that there's a sharp shear gradient near the Gulf coast, but this is due to the cyclone itself and not a reflection of the actual environmental shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Hence, the only possibility of weakening will be due to dry air penetrating the core of Katrina. With Katrina approaching a warm eddy and likely negating the effects of any dry air, there is very little time for weakening to take place. However, it doesn't take very much disruption to take a Cat 5 to a Cat 4, but pick your poison...they will both kill you potentially.

[Brent]

Not by much... I think at best we get a strong Cat 4...