11 AM NHC track still 89.8W @NO lat i.e. NOT shifted east!

[LarryWx]

The 11 AM NHC projected track is NOT any further east of N.O. than the 5 AM. As a matter of fact, here is a line from the 11 AM discussion that confirms this:

"THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST."

Here is a portion of the 5AM projected track:

24hr VT 29/0600z 28.0n 89.4w 135 kt
36hr VT 29/1800z 30.0n 89.8w 125 kt
48hr VT 30/0600z 32.3n 89.3w 65 kt...inland

Note that the above 5AM track gets it to 89.8 W at the N.O. latitude.

Now to compare, here is a portion of the 11AM track :

12HR VT 29/0000Z 27.2N 88.9W 145 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 29.1N 89.6W 140 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 31.4N 89.5W 85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 88.5W 45 KT...INLAND

If people weren't careful, they could easily misinterpret this track as implying a track that never gets any further west than 89.6W and therefore east of the 5 AM track by. One also would think that if they saw a map with STRAIGHT LINES between the official forecast points. However, the reality is that the NHC track implies a curved path rather than straight lines between points. This is proven when reading that line I quoted that says "THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST." So, in other words, the NHC is still implying 89.8W at the N.O. latitude! It just doesn't show up in the advisory only because it is between forecast points.

This is a perfect illustration of why I feel that having straight lines drawn between forecast points on a curving path at landfall is a mistake and that they should be curved.