What are the chances of Katrina doing a Lily?

[Houstonia]

What are the chances that katrina pulls a Lily and dissapates drasticaly before making landfall??

That's about our best hope, it seems...

WWL met said a few minutes ago that Katrina is now forecast to brush N.O. on the east side of the city, preventing NoLa from being on the devestating Northeastern side, but still being devestated by the west side of the eye.

I didn't see anything written that showed that, anyone else see that slight change (only a few miles) to th east?

[Jim Cantore]

Not likely it seems

even if it does it will still be stronger then Lili ever was

[acidus]

WWL met said a few minutes ago that Katrina is now forecast to brush N.O. on the east side of the city, preventing NoLa from being on the devestating Northeastern side

I think its way too early for anyone to be talking about the exact path Katrina will take. A responsible met would be telling people to look at the cone. The margin of error 24 hours out is 80 nautical miles and for an annular hurricane maybe more. People in the danger zone of this storm banking on a precise path given by a met could lose their lives.

[Houstonia]

WWL met said a few minutes ago that Katrina is now forecast to brush N.O. on the east side of the city, preventing NoLa from being on the devestating Northeastern side

I think its way too early for anyone to be talking about the exact path Katrina will take. A responsible met would be telling people to look at the cone. The margin of error 24 hours out is 80 nautical miles and for an annular hurricane maybe more. People in the danger zone of this storm banking on a precise path given by a met could lose their lives.

I strongly agree!!

[Anonymous]

A pass on the east would be devastating to NO, as this would surge the lake into the city and flood most of it.

[wjs3]

Let me pile on:

Anyone who says that he/she can call the storm just going east/west of anywhere (not just NO) from this far out should not be listened to.

That kind of precision simply does not exist. I'd avoid listening to that person's forecast from here on out.

I have no doubt over the next 24 hours, we're all going to be hanging on every "jog", "stair-step" and "wobble". But no one can do more than generally predict the land fall point right now.

I would change the channel...now.

[krysof]

To do a lily, it would have to weaken now, but it could be strengthening even more. Less than 200 miles away from landfall. This will truly be the most devastating hit in U.S modern history.

[Houstonia]

Let me pile on:

Anyone who says that he/she can call the storm just going east/west of anywhere (not just NO) from this far out should not be listened to.

That kind of precision simply does not exist. I'd avoid listening to that person's forecast from here on out.

I have no doubt over the next 24 hours, we're all going to be hanging on every "jog", "stair-step" and "wobble". But no one can do more than generally predict the land fall point right now.

I would change the channel...now.

Well for what it's worth, I only heard him say it once, about an hour ago, and he had a chart showing the EYE of Katrina moving just east of N.O.

And I haven't heard him or ANY of the other mets say it again. They are mostly discussing the NW turn and the need for a North turn before it hits 90W.

[THead]

What are the chances that katrina pulls a Lily and dissapates drasticaly before making landfall??

That's about our best hope, it seems...

WWL met said a few minutes ago that Katrina is now forecast to brush N.O. on the east side of the city, preventing NoLa from being on the devestating Northeastern side, but still being devestated by the west side of the eye.

I didn't see anything written that showed that, anyone else see that slight change (only a few miles) to th east?

Ask the folks in s. dade county what the "weak" side of a Cat 1 feels like. This is a different monster now, the "weak" side is still going to be unimagineable, plus like someone said, probably dump the lake into the city. I wouldn't want to be within 100 miles of the center of this thing, on either side.