Invest 90L=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

[schmita]

96hrs...
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 57.0W 15.1N 62.1W 15.9N 67.1W 15.6N 71.5W
BAMM 15.9N 55.1W 17.3N 59.6W 18.6N 64.3W 19.2N 68.9W
A98E 14.5N 59.3W 15.9N 63.8W 17.3N 67.6W 18.2N 72.0W
LBAR 15.7N 60.4W 17.5N 66.1W 19.8N 69.4W 32.6N 70.2W
SHIP 52KTS 65KTS 71KTS 76KTS
DSHP 52KTS 65KTS 71KTS 76KTS

oh rats!!!

By the way, how fast is this thing moving? It's hauling a_s westward! No wonder it can't get organized!

I hear you !! Rats is right.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED 281130Z AUG 05//
WTNT 22 KNGU 281200 COR
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/281130Z AUG 05//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT22 KNGU 281200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0N 45.0W TO 15.0N 50.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 281130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 45.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 15N 44W IS MOVING WEST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS. SCATTEROMETRY WINDS INDICATED A SUFACE CIRCULA­
TION NEAR 14N 45W WITH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF AP­
PROXIMATELY 25 TO 30 KTS. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER
24 HOURS AND CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ARE BECOMING FA­
VORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT
200MB, WEAK WIND SHEAR, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH­
WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. SYSTEM MOVEMENT FORECAST IF WEST-NORTH­
WEST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED
FROM SATELLITE DATA IS 82F(28C).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 291200Z.
//




A step prior to being classified as a TD.

[bvigal]

oh double-rats - was afraid of this today, just when I'd rather be watching (and praying) re Katrina.

What do you think, Luis? Is this thing going to flare up fast? Newest models show NW like everything else so far this year. Do you buy that, or think it will stay on track west?

[cycloneye]

oh double-rats - was afraid of this today, just when I'd rather be watching (and praying) re Katrina.

What do you think, Luis? Is this thing going to flare up fast? Newest models show NW like everything else so far this year. Do you buy that, or think it will stay on track west?

In only a few words my friend I fear this will be a NE caribbean system.Let's prepare for the worse all fellow members in the NE Caribbean but hope for the best.

[caribepr]

oh double-rats - was afraid of this today, just when I'd rather be watching (and praying) re Katrina.

What do you think, Luis? Is this thing going to flare up fast? Newest models show NW like everything else so far this year. Do you buy that, or think it will stay on track west?

In only a few words my friend I fear this will be a NE caribbean system.Let's prepare for the worse all fellow members in the NE Caribbean but hope for the best.

Why is it being called 22L now? On the FNMOC page? I was hoping it disappeared (just home fast for a computer fix during lunch) but figured it out eventually.

Yes...prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and pray for those in Katrina's path.

[cycloneye]

caribepr that is an error as it has to say 90L.

[caribepr]

Thanks...thought it was some new type of designation I didn't know about - before calling a TD

[bvigal]

Thanks for your outlook, Luis. This thing is looking better on satellite. If winds are 25-35kts, there is a closed low indicated from satellite, convection is over the low, anticyclone to vent, persistance for at least 24hrs... what else is needed for a TD?

[WindRunner]

Thanks for your outlook, Luis. This thing is looking better on satellite. If winds are 25-35kts, there is a closed low indicated from satellite, convection is over the low, anticyclone to vent, persistance for at least 24hrs... what else is needed for a TD?

An advisory.

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Luis, I see the model output but I do not get a sense of timing from that.

When should we expect this new system to come closest to Puerto Rico?

[TheBurn]

TD13 as per the NRL:

13L.NONAME, TRACK_VIS, 28 AUG 2005 1830Z

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... s&DISPLAY=

[TheBurn]

TD13 as per the NRL:

13L.NONAME, TRACK_VIS, 28 AUG 2005 1830Z

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2005&MO=08&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=13L.NONAME&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&STYLE=tables&DISPLAY=