Hurricane Katrina

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StormsAhead
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#1761 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 4:49 pm

WindRunner wrote:[quote="StormsAheadThe winds have not weakened much, but there wasn't even 150 knots on that last pass.


Which walls did they go through on that pass? I wouldn't be surprised if they went through the SW and NW, which it looks like they did.[/quote]

East, like I wrote there.
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#1762 Postby Seele » Sun Aug 28, 2005 4:52 pm

WindRunner wrote:Which walls did they go through on that pass? I wouldn't be surprised if they went through the SW and NW, which it looks like they did.


Looks like they went W to E and are now moving up to the NE quad.
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#1763 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 28, 2005 4:52 pm

Man, it helps if you look at the right set of obs and use coordinates from today as opposed to 24hrs ago. Sorry about that!
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#1764 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 4:54 pm

URNT40 KWBC 282140
NOAA3 1812A KATRINA
213030 2810 08820 10005 -0099 125081 +110 +110 125081 062 008
213100 2811 08822 10008 -0101 126082 +115 +115 124083 060 007
213130 2813 08825 10003 -0099 122084 +117 +116 123085 062 008
213200 2814 08828 10010 -0101 121084 +115 +115 121085 062 010
213230 2815 08831 10002 -0102 121087 +116 +116 122088 060 009
213300 2815 08834 10012 -0103 120085 +117 +117 120086 059 008
213330 2815 08837 10008 -0106 121086 +118 +118 122089 059 008
213400 2816 08840 10018 -0106 119079 +117 +117 119082 059 011
213430 2816 08843 10008 -0111 119084 +116 +116 119086 060 012
213500 2816 08846 10019 -0110 120080 +116 +116 120083 062 013
213530 2816 08849 10007 -0107 120078 +115 +115 120079 062 012
213600 2816 08852 10009 -0108 116076 +117 +117 118079 065 011
213630 2816 08855 10005 -0105 107073 +121 +121 107074 067 010
213700 2816 08859 10016 -0108 098070 +120 +120 098071 065 008
213730 2816 08902 10006 -0107 099069 +126 +120 098071 063 007
213800 2816 08905 10011 -0108 098072 +119 +119 097074 061 009
213830 2816 08908 10007 -0108 089077 +118 +118 090078 060 009
213900 2816 08911 10004 -0105 091081 +117 +117 091081 060 008
213930 2816 08914 10012 -0100 096079 +123 +121 097081 058 009
214000 2816 08917 10010 -0094 094077 +130 +117 097082 057 007

89 knots...
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#1765 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 5:03 pm

URNT40 KWBC 282150
NOAA3 1812A KATRINA
214030 2816 08920 10009 -0088 089074 +133 +110 088075 057 006
214100 2816 08923 10005 -0087 089075 +128 +113 090076 058 007
214130 2816 08926 10007 -0086 087078 +124 +114 086079 055 007
214200 2816 08929 10007 -0079 085079 +120 +116 085080 999 999
214230 2818 08932 10008 -0065 085071 +118 +117 086073 999 999
214300 2820 08933 10008 -0051 086071 +114 +114 088072 999 999
214330 2821 08932 10000 -0044 088069 +115 +114 089070 999 999
214400 2822 08931 10006 -0041 088072 +116 +109 088073 054 005
214430 2822 08929 10009 -0043 089073 +115 +111 088074 055 007
214500 2822 08928 10008 -0046 087075 +109 +107 086075 055 010
214530 2822 08926 10003 -0051 086072 +108 +107 086073 056 011
214600 2822 08924 10005 -0056 088068 +109 +109 086070 056 011
214630 2822 08922 10004 -0060 086065 +111 +111 088065 057 010
214700 2822 08921 10009 -0060 085067 +114 +113 083068 057 009
214730 2822 08919 10012 -0061 078071 +117 +101 078072 058 008
214800 2822 08917 10009 -0064 078073 +119 +094 078073 060 008
214830 2822 08916 10006 -0066 080072 +120 +095 080072 060 008
214900 2822 08914 10003 -0070 086068 +120 +112 084071 059 009
214930 2822 08912 10005 -0076 084067 +121 +113 083068 061 011
215000 2822 08910 10008 -0079 098065 +120 +119 105066 062 013

80 knots
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#1766 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Aug 28, 2005 5:05 pm

UZNT13 KNHC 281530
XXAA 78157 99260 70881 08168 99907 27409 23515 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85574 23807 25013 70291 24867 31005 88999 77999
31313 09608 81500
61616 AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 29
62626 EYE SPL 2605N08812W 1503 MBL WND 24513 AEV 20507 DLM WND 25
009 906722 WL150 24514 077 =
XXBB 78158 99260 70881 08168 00907 27409 11850 23807 22820 24649
33786 27862 44734 27869 55698 24266
21212 00907 23515 11896 25014 22850 25013 33698 31005
31313 09608 81500
61616 AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 29
62626 EYE SPL 2605N08812W 1503 MBL WND 24513 AEV 20507 DLM WND 25
009 906722 WL150 24514 077 =
;

Pressure in the eye is 907mb based on this drosponde.
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#1767 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 5:13 pm

Thunder44 wrote:UZNT13 KNHC 281530
XXAA 78157 99260 70881 08168 99907 27409 23515 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85574 23807 25013 70291 24867 31005 88999 77999
31313 09608 81500
61616 AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 29
62626 EYE SPL 2605N08812W 1503 MBL WND 24513 AEV 20507 DLM WND 25
009 906722 WL150 24514 077 =
XXBB 78158 99260 70881 08168 00907 27409 11850 23807 22820 24649
33786 27862 44734 27869 55698 24266
21212 00907 23515 11896 25014 22850 25013 33698 31005
31313 09608 81500
61616 AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 29
62626 EYE SPL 2605N08812W 1503 MBL WND 24513 AEV 20507 DLM WND 25
009 906722 WL150 24514 077 =
;

Pressure in the eye is 907mb based on this drosponde.


That's from 11:30 AM...
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Derek Ortt

#1768 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 28, 2005 5:13 pm

that dropsonde is from 1530UTC, 7 hours ago
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#1769 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 5:15 pm

URNT40 KWBC 282200
NOAA3 1812A KATRINA
215030 2822 08909 10005 -0081 104065 +115 +115 106066 063 013
215100 2822 08907 10012 -0081 103071 +116 +116 100073 063 012
215130 2822 08905 10008 -0083 100074 +117 +117 099075 062 009
215200 2822 08903 10005 -0087 102072 +117 +117 102072 059 008
215230 2822 08902 10012 -0089 104073 +117 +117 104073 058 008
215300 2822 08900 10011 -0086 101075 +123 +115 099076 060 005
215330 2822 08858 10010 -0086 098074 +126 +112 099076 058 004
215400 2822 08857 10007 -0087 095072 +130 +101 094073 058 003
215430 2822 08855 10005 -0086 103071 +126 +115 103072 058 005
215500 2822 08853 10007 -0090 104066 +129 +112 104067 059 006
215530 2822 08851 10013 -0089 104069 +128 +108 104071 059 006
215600 2822 08850 10011 -0083 106074 +126 +109 106076 059 007
215630 2822 08848 10009 -0079 107076 +123 +108 108077 061 006
215700 2822 08846 10002 -0079 110077 +120 +108 110078 999 999
215730 2824 08845 10009 -0072 109073 +121 +106 110075 999 999
215800 2826 08846 10014 -0055 108071 +123 +105 110071 056 005
215830 2828 08847 10008 -0044 107065 +118 +096 107066 054 006
215900 2830 08849 10007 -0033 105062 +120 +096 106063 054 008
215930 2832 08850 10006 -0022 106064 +118 +094 106065 054 009
220000 2835 08852 10005 -0010 106063 +121 +089 106064 051 009

78 knots...N quad
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#1770 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 5:29 pm

URNT40 KWBC 282210
NOAA3 1812A KATRINA
220030 2837 08853 10009 +0005 103060 +125 +096 104061 051 008
220100 2839 08854 10011 +0016 101061 +121 +105 101063 052 008
220130 2841 08856 10013 +0028 101063 +117 +106 101064 052 006
220200 2843 08857 10009 +0038 102067 +116 +098 101068 051 004
220230 2845 08859 10006 +0044 103067 +121 +081 102068 999 999
220300 2844 08902 10008 +0042 101069 +120 +081 101070 999 999
220330 2843 08904 10002 +0033 096069 +122 +082 096070 052 001
220400 2841 08904 10013 +0021 094066 +121 +090 094066 052 005
220430 2839 08904 10011 +0009 092061 +120 +095 093062 053 006
220500 2837 08904 10014 -0002 090058 +122 +098 091058 054 006
220530 2835 08904 10016 -0012 092059 +121 +096 092060 054 006
220600 2833 08904 10015 -0022 091060 +125 +092 092061 055 005
220630 2831 08904 10012 -0031 093058 +123 +094 092060 055 006
220700 2829 08904 10016 -0047 094062 +120 +097 095067 060 004
220730 2827 08904 10010 -0058 097071 +124 +104 098072 058 005
220800 2825 08904 10009 -0070 098073 +127 +103 098074 061 004
220830 2823 08904 10006 -0086 100076 +130 +101 102078 058 004
220900 2821 08904 10016 -0103 103088 +127 +105 103089 060 003
220930 2819 08904 10004 -0121 100088 +116 +106 100089 062 002
221000 2817 08904 10012 -0136 104089 +114 +112 103091 064 003

91 knots
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#1771 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 5:33 pm

URNT40 KWBC 282220
NOAA3 1812A KATRINA
221030 2816 08904 10010 -0156 105094 +118 +107 105095 065 002
221100 2814 08904 10006 -0181 104094 +116 +111 105094 065 000
221130 2812 08904 10010 -0197 104087 +121 +112 104090 067 002
221200 2810 08904 10009 -0209 106086 +118 +114 106090 068 001
221230 2809 08904 10014 -0228 105093 +118 +114 105094 067 001
221300 2807 08904 10012 -0249 104091 +117 +111 104092 070 004
221330 2805 08904 10006 -0272 102091 +117 +116 103092 070 003
221400 2803 08904 10008 -0292 101093 +117 +117 102093 070 002
221430 2801 08904 10008 -0314 101093 +116 +116 101094 070 003
221500 2800 08904 10012 -0336 100094 +115 +115 099095 070 004
221530 2758 08904 10007 -0360 097093 +117 +117 098094 071 004
221600 2756 08904 10009 -0386 095093 +117 +117 095094 071 005
221630 2754 08904 10007 -0409 092088 +120 +119 092089 072 006
221700 2752 08904 10021 -0437 090089 +119 +119 088090 073 008
221730 2750 08904 10008 -0466 090094 +126 +124 090096 078 015
221800 2748 08904 10000 -0501 094095 +127 +127 095098 080 029
221830 2746 08904 10133 -0535 100102 +118 +118 101104 081 026
221900 2744 08904 10317 -0555 111080 +130 +130 113084 081 011
221930 2743 08904 10103 -0593 105078 +137 +136 106079 080 010
222000 2741 08904 10064 -0624 107084 +135 +135 107085 082 014

104 knots FL...SFMR 82 knots.
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#1772 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 5:53 pm

URNT40 KWBC 282230
NOAA3 1812A KATRINA
222030 2739 08904 10025 -0658 105085 +133 +133 106086 081 014
222100 2737 08904 10010 -0688 101082 +135 +135 100083 081 010
222130 2735 08904 10055 -0713 099085 +136 +136 098085 081 005
222200 2733 08904 10046 -0752 097087 +144 +130 097088 082 002
222230 2731 08904 10054 -0798 099089 +145 +129 099089 079 002
222300 2729 08904 10047 -0850 098094 +147 +114 099096 079 001
222330 2728 08904 10051 -0912 098101 +146 +119 096102 080 002
222400 2726 08904 10047 -0978 097106 +147 +111 097108 079 000
222430 2724 08904 10054 -1057 098112 +142 +112 100115 081 001
222500 2722 08904 10057 -1161 099118 +129 +120 099120 085 003
222530 2720 08904 10067 -1277 100128 +133 +129 100130 089 007
222600 2718 08904 10038 -1407 099129 +143 +140 099130 094 010
222630 2717 08904 10210 -1537 096133 +136 +135 095134 102 016
222700 2715 08904 10490 -1698 098137 +140 +140 096138 107 028
222730 2713 08904 10674 -1912 091122 +143 +143 091128 117 029
222800 2711 08904 10076 -2182 089109 +179 +171 089114 120 003
222830 2709 08904 10174 -2322 098079 +177 +177 095089 101 001
222900 2707 08904 10088 -2411 101051 +215 +199 099056 051 003
222930 2705 08905 10101 -2452 110035 +238 +161 108040 033 004
223000 2703 08906 10094 -2471 117019 +246 +160 112023 021 003

Based on wind that looks like the NE quad...if it is, NHC will lower winds more because they give a lot of weight to SFMR...which now has a max of 120 knots. FL max only 138 knots.
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#1773 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:01 pm

URNT40 KWBC 282240
NOAA3 1812A KATRINA
223030 2701 08907 10100 -2468 125008 +255 +153 140012 024 002
223100 2700 08908 10089 -2457 012004 +260 +142 044006 999 999
223130 2658 08907 10101 -2439 260009 +262 +100 265011 999 999
223200 2656 08906 10093 -2427 262015 +259 +094 263019 021 002
223230 2654 08906 10100 -2397 276028 +256 +101 279035 032 003
223300 2652 08906 10158 -2335 279051 +226 +129 281058 053 004
223400 2647 08906 10051 -2052 277105 +165 +164 274112 100 008
223430 2645 08906 9923 -1868 272117 +157 +157 272119 112 024
223500 2643 08906 9986 -1649 269125 +145 +144 269128 108 022
223530 2642 08906 10114 -1462 266122 +132 +132 269124 100 011
223600 2640 08906 10100 -1324 262119 +130 +126 262119 093 005
223630 2638 08906 10107 -1209 262114 +134 +111 262116 088 003
223700 2636 08906 10104 -1108 262108 +132 +114 261109 081 005
223730 2634 08906 10072 -1024 262103 +137 +114 261105 077 006
223800 2633 08906 10074 -0951 262098 +142 +108 262100 075 005
223830 2631 08906 10067 -0889 263096 +138 +127 262096 072 006
223900 2629 08906 10030 -0835 263093 +137 +137 263093 070 006
223930 2627 08906 10029 -0783 262091 +137 +135 263092 068 007
224000 2625 08906 10026 -0734 262091 +138 +136 263091 067 006

That was the NE quad...they had to go SW to reach the eye. This is the S quad...128 knots FL and 112 knots surface. So winds have gotten weaker. Now let's see what the pressure has done.
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#1774 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:04 pm

URNT12 KNHC 282250
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/2231Z
B. 27 DEG 00 MIN N
89 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2257 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 96 DEG 139 KT
G. 13 DEG 16 NM
H. 904 MB
I. 14 C/ 3062 M
J. 27 C/ 3075 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1812A KATRINA OB 28
MAX FL WIND 160 KTS NE QUAD 1743Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

Continued slight weakening...no really big changes yet. Eye no longer getting larger.
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#1775 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:07 pm

URNT40 KWBC 282250
NOAA3 1812A KATRINA
224030 2623 08906 10023 -0697 259090 +138 +138 258092 067 006
224100 2621 08906 10016 -0662 260090 +135 +134 261091 068 006
224130 2619 08906 10022 -0624 260089 +135 +131 261091 069 006
224200 2617 08906 10026 -0588 258086 +137 +134 258086 070 007
224230 2616 08906 10025 -0556 257088 +134 +134 257090 071 008
224300 2614 08906 10026 -0526 256087 +134 +134 256088 072 009
224330 2612 08906 10023 -0498 254085 +132 +131 254086 072 012
224400 2610 08906 10022 -0471 254082 +130 +130 254083 072 013
224430 2608 08906 10026 -0447 256079 +130 +130 257080 071 015
224500 2606 08906 10019 -0419 260081 +130 +130 261082 071 014
224530 2604 08906 10019 -0394 263083 +129 +129 263084 072 015
224600 2603 08906 10031 -0367 263082 +125 +125 263083 072 017
224630 2601 08906 10020 -0343 261082 +124 +123 261083 069 013
224700 2559 08906 10025 -0318 261080 +123 +122 261081 068 011
224730 2557 08906 10026 -0293 263077 +120 +120 263078 065 008
224800 2555 08907 10024 -0270 263075 +120 +120 263076 064 008
224830 2553 08907 10021 -0245 263074 +118 +118 265075 065 008
224900 2551 08907 10023 -0227 259071 +118 +118 258072 063 006
224930 2549 08907 10023 -0209 255077 +106 +106 255079 062 006
225000 2547 08907 10012 -0194 255076 +106 +106 255077 059 006

92 knots
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#1776 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:14 pm

URNT40 KWBC 282300
NOAA3 1812A KATRINA
225030 2545 08907 10018 -0178 256075 +114 +099 256076 057 004
225100 2543 08907 10016 -0160 257071 +118 +094 258073 056 003
225130 2541 08907 10027 -0146 255068 +121 +090 255068 054 003
225200 2539 08907 10024 -0126 255066 +132 +084 254067 051 003
225230 2537 08907 10019 -0109 258066 +127 +085 258066 052 003
225300 2535 08907 10022 -0095 256063 +117 +086 258063 050 003
225330 2533 08907 10023 -0079 256060 +118 +084 257061 049 003
225400 2531 08907 10019 -0070 256060 +116 +092 256061 046 002
225430 2529 08907 10023 -0059 257064 +116 +092 258065 048 003
225500 2528 08907 10020 -0048 257066 +120 +100 258067 047 003
225530 2526 08907 10024 -0037 252063 +125 +108 253064 047 004
225600 2524 08907 10027 -0031 247063 +128 +105 246063 045 003
225630 2522 08907 10026 -0018 248064 +129 +104 248064 044 004
225700 2520 08907 10019 -0004 250064 +132 +094 250065 043 003
225730 2518 08907 10015 +0004 250063 +131 +093 251063 042 004
225800 2516 08907 10016 +0009 250062 +131 +100 250063 041 005
225830 2514 08906 10017 +0015 249061 +128 +106 247062 999 999
225900 2513 08904 10018 +0021 246062 +128 +100 247063 999 999
225930 2514 08902 10017 +0021 244062 +127 +101 244063 999 999
230000 2516 08901 10011 +0014 243063 +124 +100 242064 037 006

76 knots
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#1777 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:21 pm

Well I picked a good hour to go away, nothing much seems to have happened.
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#1778 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:22 pm

904 mb and a Cat 4 makes no sense... something is wrong.
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#1779 Postby JtSmarts » Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:25 pm

I think the storm has gotten out of whack from all the expanding like when it was 115-940. As time goes on it will probably readjust to how it should be.
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#1780 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:27 pm

Brent wrote:904 mb and a Cat 4 makes no sense... something is wrong.


It's about as strange as a 937-mb almost-Cat 5 (Emily). But there was an explanation for that.
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